Normally, opening day in Major League Baseball serves as the pinnacle for optimism, even if such positivity is unwarranted. But when your team just snapped a 21-year playoff drought and compounded that euphoria with a historic comeback playoff victory, the buzz begins much sooner.
Spring training is upon us, with Mariners pitchers and catchers reporting to camp in Peoria, Arizona, on Wednesday and position players joining them soon after. It's a time not only to savor the potential of a team (seemingly) on the rise, but to speculate as to how far it can go.
No one could blame fans for letting their minds wander. Not after the M's played the 2022 World Series champion Astros tight for three games, knowing a swing here or there could have swung the series.
But history has shown that optimism should remain guarded with this franchise. Last year, remember, was just the first time Seattle produced back-to-back winning seasons since 2003.
So should you be pumped? Or should you pump the brakes on your World Series dreams?
Here are reasons for both.
Why the Mariners will be better
Remember when Seattle was 29-39 after losing three in a row to the Angels and seemingly headed for another playoff preclusion? Well, they ended up winning 61 of their next 94 games — a pace that would have netted them 105 victories if they played that way from start to finish. Granted, most teams have a successful stretch each season that one can highlight and thus exaggerate said team's ability — but 61-33 to end the season is significant.
One of the reasons they improved is because they acquired ace pitcher Luis Castillo, the two-time All-Star who helped guide the Mariners to victories in his first three games after joining them at the trade deadline — then signed an extension that keeps him in Seattle through at least 2027.
Another was the midseason rocket launch of fellow starting pitcher Robbie Ray. That name might leave a bitter taste in some fans' mouths given that it was Ray who gave up the Game 1 walkoff home run to Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez in the divisional round. But for two months last season, Ray resembled the 2021 Cy Young Award winner that Seattle coveted so much. Robbie had a rough September and October. Nobody will dispute that. But he has enough of a track record to indicate that he can rediscover that top-tier form.
More than anything, though, it stands to reason that the young standouts will continue to improve. Center fielder Julio Rodriguez, who won the American League Rookie of the Year last season, is projected by fangraphs.com to have the fourth-best WAR in baseball next year. Logan Gilbert, meanwhile, just posted a 13-6 record in his second season (first in which he started more than 24 games), and fellow starter George Kirby looks to grow after finishing sixth in the AL ROY voting.
Yes, the sophomore slump is a real thing — but so are second-year surges. And when you take everything mentioned above and throw in the addition of slugger Teoscar Hernandez in the outfield — there's a strong case to be made that Seattle will best its 90-win total from 2022.
But there is the question of ...
Why the Mariners will be worse
Health, health, health. There is no major-league team that can go through the season without injury trouble (the Mariners' Mitch Haniger played just 57 games last year, for example) but Seattle was relatively blessed in 2022 — and extremely blessed on the starting-pitching front. Ray, Gilbert and Marco Gonzales each started 32 games, with Kirby starting 25. Chris Flexen, who was flexed out of the rotation upon Castillo's arrival, started 22 games, and Castillo started 11.
To get that sort of consistency out of your starting pitching is just shy of miraculous. And to expect such optimal health again is far-fetched.
Then there's a player such as third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who posted a WAR of 3.9 last season. That's one year after posting a -0.7 WAR with the Reds, and two years after posting an 0.6 WAR. Which version are the M's likely to get next season?
Plus, MLB is a league of adaptation. Pitchers adjust. Hitters adjust. As much anticipation as the Mariners' youngsters might be generating based on last season, it's quite possible opposing teams simply figure them out in 2023.
Still, if I'm a Mariners fan, I'm happy with what I've got. The team might not be a World Series favorite, but it's one that could cause a world of hurt for opponents in the playoffs.
Spring is in the air for M's fans right now. Hope is, too. The latter is very much justified.
