SEATTLE — If two train wrecks had a love child, they’d probably name it Russell Wilson.
The situation in Denver has devolved from disappointment to disaster and is now in the realm of disbelief.
Long considered a top-five quarterback, the Seahawk-turned-Bronco is 29th in the NFL in passer rating, 30th in QBR and 31st in completion percentage — all while ranking first (unofficially) in national ridicule. I imagine even the most perverse schadenfreude gluttons are having a hard time watching as the Broncos sit at 3-8.
No doubt there are short-term ramifications for Wilson — such as the humiliation of being the centerpiece of what may go down as one of the worst trades (or best if you’re the Seahawks) in league history. But what about the long-term consequences? What if maybe, just maybe, Wilson is playing himself out of the Hall of Fame?
That might seem preposterous to folks looking at his nine Pro Bowl selections in 10 pro seasons. It might seem absurd to people noticing that he is fourth all-time in passer rating and 13th in touchdown passes. It might seem ridiculous to football fans who know he has a Super Bowl title, another Super Bowl trip appearance and eight playoff appearances.
But the HOF can be as much about narrative as it is numbers — and here’s the storyline some might see with Russell.
— Chapter 1: Those Super Bowl years were marked by a Marshawn Lynch-led running attack and one of the best defenses in history — not the quarterback. The Seahawks were fourth in the league in rushing in 2013, first in 2014 and first in points allowed in both. When Wilson — who threw the game-sealing interception at the end of Super Bowl XLIX — became the focal point of the offense, his numbers surged but the winning slowed. No more trips to the NFC Championship Game, and with most of the defensive stars departed, just one playoff win in his last five years in Seattle.
— Chapter 2: As soon as Wilson left the Seahawks — or more accurately, forced his way out — he became one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. Meanwhile, his successor, Geno Smith, has posted the second-best passer rating in the league. A lot of people will harp on all that. The question is: Will that be the people who matter?
I reached out to three Pro Football Hall of Fame voters this week to see whether they thought Wilson’s play of late could affect his entrance into Canton, which once seemed inevitable. The first was the NFL Network’s Jim Trotter, the second was Seattle-based Mike Sando of The Athletic, and the third was foxsports.com’s Eric Williams, who covered Wilson’s early years while at the Tacoma News Tribune.
Here are their responses via text.
— Trotter: “Obviously I’m just one voter, and we each have our own thoughts, so I don’t pretend to speak for everyone. But I definitely believe some will look at him differently if these struggles extend beyond this year. Or if he’s never as productive as he was during his Seattle years. Will that keep him out? Can’t say. But at the least I would assume it could delay entry if he is ultimately deemed [a Hall of Famer].”
— Sando: “Struggling to this degree for an extended period would hurt his Hall credentials. It could be important for him to have some success post-Seattle, but it’s really premature to make up our minds. The five-year waiting period for Hall consideration following retirement should help selectors take into account the full body of work, instead of overly weighting what is going on right now.”
— Williams: “Russell Wilson’s story hasn’t been written yet. His first season in Denver has been a disaster. But Wilson is 34 years old and has time to turn things around. Through his first decade in the NFL, Wilson’s name was synonymous with winning. He was widely considered one of the best quarterbacks in the game, evidenced by his nine Pro Bowls. Having covered Wilson daily his first few years with the Seahawks, I wouldn’t bet against him.”
I agree with Williams — particularly on Wilson’s victory-filled decade in Seattle. He might not have put up gaudy passing numbers in his early years, but his mastery of the read option was integral to fueling that offense.
Remember, Russell’s 539 rushing yards in ’13 helped him place fourth in the AP Offensive Player of the Year voting. He ran for 849 yards the following season and led the NFL in yards per carry at 7.2. He was tops in the league in passer rating (110.9) in 2015, first in touchdown passes (34) in 2017 and has been in the top four for OPOY voting three times.
Has he taken more sacks than any other QB in the league since he was drafted? Yes. Is that primarily the result of him holding onto the ball too long? Probably so. But had he retired before the start of this season instead of suiting up for Denver, I think he’d be a first-ballot lock. Should he be punished for his nosedive since? I guess we’ll find out.
Wilson’s drop-off has been one of the most astonishing in NFL history. Not even his most vocal critics could have predicted this. He’s playing a mile above the sea but a mile below the gold standard.
Just not sure that should cost him a gold jacket.
