SEATTLE — If the words coming out of Geno Smith's mouth reflect the thoughts inside Geno Smith's head, we know his priority: making the playoffs.
He has been adamant about his goals throughout the season, regularly redirecting questions about his achievements toward team aspirations.
A postseason appearance would be a mammoth success for the Seahawks considering preseason expectations and the youth spread across both sides of the ball. But what if there is more on the line for Smith over these next few games than getting into the 14-team tournament? What if these next three games are what determine his future as a Seahawk?
Smith's story is as rare as it is inspirational. A second-round draft pick who started for two years, served as a journeyman backup for seven, then emerged as one of the NFL's top quarterbacks after replacing Russell Wilson as Seattle's starting signal caller this year. The "Ge-no!" chants that began as a Wilson diss in Week 1 have continued as a sincere showing of appreciation toward No. 7 throughout this improbable run.
Through 14 games, Smith's 105.3 passer rating is second-best in the NFL behind Miami's Tua Tagovailoa, who has played two fewer games. Smith's completion percentage of 71.4 is tops in the league, his 3,671 passing yards are seventh, his 26 touchdowns are fourth — and all this despite the complete absence of a running attack over the past five games.
But still ... the Seahawks are 7-7 and losers of four of their past five. There also were costly fumbles by Geno vs. the Bucs and Raiders (the latter of which was a miscommunication between him and running back Kenneth Walker III), not to mention the pick-six vs. the 49ers on Thursday that was called back due to a very questionable roughing-the-passer penalty.
And more than anything, Smith's career track record is a couple of yards short of a first down, which has to spark skepticism about whether, at 32, he can produce more seasons like this one. Which brings us to these next three games.
Two things few expected to happen this year were 1) Smith playing like an All-Pro QB; and 2) The Broncos (4-10), who traded next year's first-round draft pick to Seattle, being this bad.
So suddenly the Seahawks are in a quandary: Do they bring back a quarterback who is likely to command upward of $30 million a year based on one standout season? Or do they draft a QB such as Bryce Young, Will Levis or C.J. Stroud — who have all been projected as top-five picks — if they have the chance to grab one?
Anyone who follows the game knows there is a huge difference between a highly touted college quarterback and a productive NFL QB. A lot of high first-round signal callers disappoint (see: Zach Wilson, Mitch Trubisky and Baker Mayfield in just the past five years), so betting on a youngster when you could sign a veteran is risky.
At the same time, inking Smith to a long-term deal when you're unsure if 2022 was simply the season of his life is equally perilous. A) He might perform well short of expectations, and B) he'd eat up a ton of salary-cap room.
When you look at the teams that make deep playoff runs, they're often replete with young talent who haven't signed their second contracts (the Super Bowl-winning Seahawks and Chiefs being among them). In short: If Geno comes out over these next three games and plays like one of the game's elite while leading Seattle to an improbable playoff berth, the Seahawks might have no choice but to lock him up long term. However, if he is simply average and they post a losing record while falling short of the postseason, they might opt to save money and turn to a promising rookie if they can snatch one.
Former agent and salary-cap guru Joel Corry has brought up the idea that the Seahawks might use the franchise tag on Smith and still draft a QB, thereby paying Geno around $30 million while giving themselves some flexibility moving forward. This could happen, especially considering that Smith would almost certainly agree to the terms considering that one-year deal would more than double his career earnings.
But most players don't like playing on a tag. They tend to feel insecure and disrespected ... even someone as ostensibly humble as Smith. So we'll see.
I think if Smith plays like the world beater he's shown to be over these next three games, he's going to be a Seahawk for several years to come. I also think that if he flatlines, we'll have heard the last of the "Ge-no!" chants at Lumen Field.
There's endless intrigue for this team down this final stretch. Extending the season into the playoffs is the primary source of suspense — but extending Smith's career with the Seahawks is up there with it.
