When Tony Gustavsson began his tenure as the Matildas' head coach in January 2021, one of his first stated objectives was to get his players to "see the same picture".
"I'm one of those people that wants to control the controllables," he said in his first media conference.
"Not simplifying in terms of neglecting important details, [but] simplifying in terms of creating a picture that everyone sees."
He was referring to a few different things: the new philosophies and systems he wanted to introduce, attempts to connect with players virtually amid lockdowns and border restrictions, and ultimately how to prepare the team for the Tokyo Olympics that, at that point, was only six months away.
A lot has happened since that media conference, now close to a year and a half ago. A different and more complicated picture has emerged.
Stripped back to its numbers, the picture is stark: The Matildas have played 24 games since Gustavsson took over, winning eight, drawing five and losing 11.
Of those losses, three came against opponents lower than Australia in the global rankings (Japan, the Republic of Ireland, and Korea) — three games which were decided by a single goal.
The Matildas finished fourth at the Tokyo Olympics, though won just two of five games (and one in regular time) to get there.
They've scored 53 goals across this period and conceded 49.
Their longest winning streak – and the time frame in which they scored the most goals – came in the group stage of February's AFC Asian Cup, where they blew past three emerging nations — Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand — with an aggregate score of 24-1 before losing 1-0 to South Korea in the quarter-finals.
Aside from the 4-3 win against Great Britain in Tokyo, Australia under Gustavsson has not won a single game against European opposition — nations that have made up 10 of the 24 games the squad has played.
In that context – the 15 months since January 2021 – this picture of the Matildas is not a pretty one. Their recent 7-0 loss to Spain and Wednesday's 1-1 draw with Portugal have only added darker paint to the portrait.
With the Women's World Cup around the corner, it's understandable that fans and the media are becoming restless. There appears, on the surface, to have been no improvement in the side that many expect to make a deep run in the tournament they're co-hosting next year. Faith and patience in Gustavsson are beginning to fade.
However, just as there was following the Matildas' unexpected Asian Cup exit, there is another, bigger picture that must be brought into focus here: Australia's struggles against higher-ranked sides – particularly those from Europe – are nothing new.
Between 2011 and 2020, under the tenure of five different head coaches, the Matildas won 59 of the 123 games they played (47 per cent). Of those wins, 16 came against opponents in the top ten (27 per cent); nations that made up roughly one-third of their overall opposition.
Further, of the 21 games played against nations ranked in the top five in that period, Australia won just twice.
Comparatively, in the 15 months since Gustavsson took over, the Matildas have won 8 of the 24 games they've played (33 per cent). Of those wins, two came against higher-ranked opponents (25 per cent); nations that made up over half of their overall opposition, meaning their recent context has been, on average, more difficult than what it used to be.
Australia's recent games against Spain and Portugal fit into this longer trend. They are two parts of a larger picture that extends back over a decade.
Within that, too, there is the narrower picture of this particular June window:
- Both Spain and Portugal were fine-tuning their squads to participate in next week's European Championships, while the Matildas had nothing immediate to prepare for
- Australia's team was primarily made up of young, uncapped, and fringe players in the absence of senior stars
- There remains an almost-insurmountable gap in the length and quality of the leagues from which most available players – in all three teams – were plucked
As Gustavsson said plainly following Australia's loss to Spain: "This is where we're at." And when understood in the context of their history, it is where they have always been.
This is the picture that Gustavsson sees. It is the picture that the players see. And after this recent friendly series, it is the picture that everyone else in Australian football now needs to see.
A game of perspectives
Indeed, these past two games have offered a microcosm of where the Matildas now sit internationally.
Seventh-ranked Spain, which hasn't lost a competitive match since 2019, showed the gulf that exists between Australia's second-string side and a fully professional, international outfit; a team filled with players from clubs like Barcelona and Real Madrid, players who've won Champions Leagues, players who've won World Cups at youth level.
Spain represents the growing dominance of Europe in the women's game, the pinnacle of the sport for both club and country. As Gustavsson said following the loss: It was never a question that Spain would win, but simply by how much.
Portugal, meanwhile, has provided a different perspective on where Australia currently sits in the international pecking order. Wednesday's 1-1 draw against the 30th-ranked side showed the Matildas' second-string team can be competitive against an emerging European nation.
While Portugal dominated the game's opening half and missed a handful of major chances, Australia was able to adjust to the tempo, reconfigure its formation, and muscle its way back into the contest in the second.
On the balance of play, a draw – thanks to a debut goal from Princess Ibini-Isei and an 87th-minute equaliser by substitute Telma Encarnacao — seemed fair.
It also fit into the longer trend: The Matildas' only other two meetings against Portugal ended in a 2-1 loss and a 0-0 draw back in 2018 — two games where Australia had arguably stronger players to choose from including Sam Kerr, Lisa De Vanna, Alanna Kennedy, Chloe Logarzo, and Elise Kellond-Knight.
And so, here we are.
Despite the many caveats and contextualisations of this international window — the unavailability of the Matildas' strongest players, the underestimated power of a Euros-favoured Spain, the gulf that exists between Australia's domestic pathways and those of emerging European nations, the chasm between the Matildas' first and second-string players — the expectations of fans and the media continues to grow.
They have been magnified by the pressure of Australia co-hosting the biggest football tournament in the world with a team containing a handful of world-class individuals playing regularly at some of the game's best clubs.
But that, as we have seen, is only part of the picture. Because while Australia has players of the calibre of Kerr, Ellie Carpenter, Steph Catley, Hayley Raso, and Kyah Simon, so too do most other nations that Australia has faced in the past 16 months, nations that they should also expect to face in a year's time.
The Matildas are, after all, just one star in a much larger galaxy of stars. The brightest of them have already accelerated away, emitting a light that began many years ago but which we are only now just starting to see.
This does not, of course, absolve Gustavsson of – in his own words – controlling what he can control. Valid questions have been asked of his player selections, his tactics, and his management of opportunities afforded by international windows.
But they must be balanced alongside the things he cannot control: the decades of underinvestment in Australia's youth national teams, the lagging behind of the A-League Women in providing full-time opportunities for emerging players, an uncoordinated domestic pyramid, and an increasingly unaffordable development pipeline, all of which have coalesced into where the Matildas now find themselves.
"This is an answer telling us where we are right now with [these] players and that pathway," Gustavsson said.
"That's an insight that tells us where we're at, and we need to keep investing to be fair to these players, to have a fair chance to jump from club land to international football, which is, right now, too big of a step for them.
"The Matildas is not a development platform. A senior national team should not work on developing players at the same time as trying to win games. The senior Matildas should be the tip of the iceberg.
"Short-term, it hurts for all of us, including us in and around the Matildas, fans, media, stakeholders, the federation.
"But in the long run, maybe that's exactly what we need to realise exactly where we're at and what we need to do.
"There's a difference between expectations and belief.
"I will never, ever stop believing in this team. But we also need to be fair on what we can expect and what time we can expect it."
What, then, do we make of all this?
Are the Matildas any better? Based on their past 16 months of results, no.
Are they any worse? In the context of their own history, not really. They are about where they have always been.
So where should they be, exactly? That will likely be the question that determines Gustavsson's fate, but it all depends on the picture you choose to see.
