As we build up to Paris-Roubaix on Sunday, the conversation revolves around the battle between Tadej Pogačar and Mathieu van der Poel. The pair, after all, have shared the past 10 Monument titles between them, and just fought out the Tour of Flanders in a duel.
Whereas Pogačar has remarkably turned Flanders into something of formality in recent years, Roubaix remains the domain of Van der Poel, winner of the past three editions in a row and bidding to become the joint record holder with four.
The pair's status as the leading lights of the 2025 edition is only underlined by their battle last year, when they rode away from all the rest. Pogačar came unstuck that day, but his second place on debut, in an event most Grand Tour winners wouldn't even consider racing, was just the latest extraordinary step in his ongoing quest to conquer anything and everything this sport has to offer.
So the narrative is set, but Paris-Roubaix is far more than a two-horse race, with a deep field of credible winners and a wide array of possibilities waiting to play out on the cobblestones of northern France.
Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Premier Tech)
With three victories in a row, Mathieu van der Poel has Paris-Roubaix in the palm of his hand, and he’s the favourite to secure a fourth title that would take him level with Tom Boonen and Roger De Vlaeminck as the most successful rider in the great history of the Hell of the North.
Van der Poel is a thoroughbred Classics rider who has all the ingredients to further enshrine his status as a legendary figure of the race. He has the engine for the attritional grind, he has the accelerations and the ability to stack them up, he has all the bike handling skills as an eight-time cyclocross world champion, he has a foil in the form of Jasper Philipsen, and he has a fearsome sprint finish.
Not that he’s needed the latter – in each of the past three editions, he has soloed his way into the Roubaix velodrome. However, the emergence of Tadej Pogačar as not just a Flanders threat but a Roubaix threat might bring that last weapon into play. The pair rode away from the rest 12 months ago and it was only a handling error through a cobbled corner that saw Pogačar lose contact.
This is a crucial weapon for Van der Poel, who, if a similar situation arises, will surely look to push the limits on the more technical areas of the course. If Pogačar can stay with Van der Poel – and given Pogačar’s jaw-dropping performances of late, it may be more a case of the other way around – then Van der Poel wins a sprint nine times out of ten.
You sense that Pogačar may have more of a say this time around, and there are plenty of other potential winners in waiting, but Van der Poel remains the leading favourite for this Paris-Roubaix.
Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)
Another year older, another year wiser, Tadej Pogačar arrives in Compiègne on the cusp of history, seeking a title that would complete the set of cycling’s five Monuments. Pogačar could join a three-man club that features Eddy Merckx, Roger De Vlaeminck, and Rick Van Looy – all active in the 1960s or 70s – and he could extend his Monuments total to 13, six shy of Merckx’s record.
It’s mind-boggling stuff from a rider who continues to astound. Earlier this spring he ticked Milan-San Remo off his list and so Paris-Roubaix remains a sort of holy grail. Like San Remo, it’s a forbidden fruit, a race a four-time Tour de France champion has no real right to win. This is meant to be an event for the Classics heavyweights over the Grand Tour climbers, but Pogačar is a rider apart.
There are no real doubts anymore about his belonging on the flat cobblestones of northern France after his extraordinary debut 12 months ago. He rode clear with the eventual winner Van der Poel and only came unstuck when he misjudged a corner.
Similar errors may await in a race lined with pitfalls, but there is a theme in Pogačar’s Monument quest of mistakes being made and then ironed out. We saw it at Flanders, which he has now won three times, we saw it in San Remo, which he finally conquered this year, and the narrative would suggest that, despite all preconceptions, we’ll see it at Roubaix before his historic career is done.
With no climbs on the route, there’s no obvious area for him to drop his rivals, as he’s made a habit of doing on the Oude Kwaremont in Flanders. Getting to the velodrome without company is going to be Pogačar’s biggest headache, given his lack of finishing speed compared to most of the other contenders on this list, but it’s sure going to be fun watching him try.
Filippo Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers)
Filippo Ganna fell flat at Milan-San Remo last month after his three-up break with Van der Poel and Pogačar over the Cipressa in the previous edition, but the Italian is far from out of form for the Classic that suits him best.
Ganna was extraordinary at Dwars door Vlaanderen last week, coming back from two bikes changes in the finale to chase down Wout Van Aert and snatch victory from him just 150 metres from the line. He resisted the temptation to ride Flanders, which Pogačar is turning into a climber's race, instead focusing on the flatlands of Roubaix, to which his heavier frame and time trialling engine are perfectly suited.
Ganna has yet to make the podium in Roubaix. His breakthrough result came in 2023 when he made the leading selection in the finale, from which Van der Poel went on to win, and ended up sixth. He skipped the race in 2024 but his return last year was hampered by bad luck as a mechanical forced him onto the back foot far from the finish, though he still managed 13th place.
If Ganna is on song on Sunday, his raw power is more than a match for anyone on this list.
Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike)
Wout Van Aert remains without a cobbled Monument and time is running out to achieve an accolade that you feel belongs on his palmarès. It's hard to know how to grade the Belgian's chances on Sunday. On the one hand, he finally has some momentum. After a tough few years, and a disrupted winter, he has steadily worked his way back into the conversation of the top Classics riders.
Third at Milan-San Remo, second at Dwars door Vlaanderen, and fourth at the Tour of Flanders prove that he is right up there. But he is not quite back where he used to be. Or rather, the competition has moved on, and Flanders showed that he is still operating at a level below Van der Poel and Pogačar.
Van Aert's aptitude for Paris-Roubaix is unquestionable. He has been fourth, third, and second in his past three appearances. The 2nd place in 2022 saw him lead the bunch home behind long-range solo winner Dylan van Baarle, while the third place from 2023 hurt the most, as he punctured on the Carrefour de l'Arbre while away with Van der Poel in the finale. That sort of ill fate has come to define Van Aert in recent years. Can he change the narrative on Sunday?
He will need a perfect day, but there's no doubt he can make it deep into the finale, and there's no doubt he could sprint it out – he has beaten Van der Poel in a sprint on several occasions. The strength of his team could be key. The in-form Christophe Laporte and the up-and-coming Matthew Brennan – who shone on debut at Roubaix last year before the lights suddnely went out – could provide a tactical headache for the others.
Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek)
Mads Pedersen has been playing catch-up all Spring after his wrist fracture earlier in the season. It's a miracle he's even here at all, let alone competing for podiums over the past few weeks. But this was the season Pedersen was expected to truly challenge for Monument victories, and fate has seemingly left him cruelly short of that level of form.
At Milan-San Remo he took a remarkable 4th place, followed by top 10s at E3 and In Flanders Fields, ahead of 5th at the Tour of Flanders. With the top 5 all riding alone in the finale, Flanders was an honest race, and Pedersen is definitely behind the likes of Pogačar, Van der Poel, and Van Aert.
However, Roubaix is a very different race, and one that is even better suited to Pedersen, particularly a Pedersen on the comeback trail. The lack of explosiveness compared to the sharp climbs of Flanders should play into his favour, and he's one of the very fastest finishers among the main contenders.
It's a tall order, but Pedersen has very much given himself a chance – and that itself is extraordinary.
Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Premier Tech)
Jasper Philipsen has twice finished runner-up at Paris-Roubaix behind his teammate Van der Poel, in 2023 and 2024, so is a clear candidate for victory and a clear weapon in Alpecin-Premier Tech's arsenal.
The Belgian has been the top sprinter at the Tour de France in recent years but his exploits at Roubaix, along with his Milan-San Remo win in 2024, have underlined the breadth of his talents. He had a slow start to the season but has burst to life at the Classics, winning Nokere Koerse and In Flanders Fields, as well as placing eighth at Dwars door Vlaanderen.
In Flanders Fields once again underlined the double-edged strategy that Alpecin can employ, with Van der Poel glass-cranking in his two-up escapade with Van Aert before Philipsen claimed the win from the bunch. Philipsen has mopped up behind Van der Poel in two editions of Roubaix, but it's not unthinkable that he could be the one that sneaks away in a more tactical finale.
His form can be something of a mixed bag but if he can hit the heights he's shown her before then he's right in the equation.
Florian Vermeersch (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)
While we're on the subject of Plan-B riders for the big favourites, Belgian racer Florian Vermeersch is a highly-credible deputy for Pogačar.
The Belgian was third at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, 3rd at E3 Saxo Classic, and when he switched to a support role for Pogačar at the Tour of Flanders he still managed seventh. He has been active and influential throughout the Spring.
What's more, Paris-Roubaix was where he first burst onto the scene as a 22-year-old mixing it with Van der Poel in a memorably mud-caked edition. He even beat Van der Poel that day but was denied the victory by a flying Sonny Colbrelli in that three-up finish. He was in the sprint for the podium last year, placing fifth behind Pedersen and Van Aert.
Gianni Vermeersch (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)
And while we're on the subject of Vermeersch's, spare a thought for Gianni Vermeersch over at Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe. The Belgian, unrelated, has a cyclocross background and a gravel world title to his name, and he's never more at home than when the course leaves the tarmac.
He only switched to Red Bull this season. Before that, he was one of Van der Poel's key henchmen and played an important role at Roubaix in recent years, even placing sixth in the 2024 edition won by the Dutchman.
This season he has spearheaded Red Bull’s Classics squad with top 10s at Strade Bianche, E3 Saxo Classic, and the Tour of Flanders. The latter race saw Remco Evenepoel enter the fray and finish on the podium, but the Olympic champion has not been tempted by Roubaix, so it's over to Vermeersch to shoot for a podium in his favourite race.
Jasper Stuyven (Soudal-QuickStep)
Soudal-QuickStep have not yet been able to re-establish themselves as the Classics force of old, but Jasper Stuyven has had a quietly strong Spring, and could have a say on Sunday.
QuickStep have a former Roubaix winner among their number in Dylan van Baarle but the Dutchman has been off the pace this Spring, meaning Stuyven is their best hope.
The Belgian has been top 10 in Milan-San Remo, In Flanders Fields, and the Tour of Flanders on Sunday. Sixth place in the latter was a great sign ahead of Roubaix, though it's a stretch to see him winning on Sunday. Fourth place from 2017 remains his best finish in the velodrome.
Alec Segaert (Bahrain Victorious)
We're more into wildcard territory now, but Alec Segaert has been one of the stand-out surprise packages of the Spring. He almost won Nokere Koerse with a late attack, he then made that happen at the GP Denain, and he has continued to throw the cat among the pigeons with rolls of the dice, notably in the finale of In Flanders Fields.
15th place at the Tour of Flanders was a solid result for a rider who is much better suited to the flat terrain of Paris-Roubaix. He’s a strong time triallist with an aero position and a penchant for solo attacks – don’t be surprised to see him in the thick of it.
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