Closing summary
Time to wrap up, after a day in which central bankers, investors, businesses and unions have paid their respects after the death of Queen Elizabeth II.
The Bank of England has postponed next week’s eagerly-anticipated interest rate decision until 22nd September, a rare move by the central bank.
The BoE said:
“In light of the period of national mourning now being observed in the United Kingdom, the September 2022 meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee has been postponed for a period of one week.”
The TUC postponed its annual Congress in Brighton, which was due to start on Sunday, following the death of the Queen.
TUC spokesperson said:
“The General Council sends our condolences to the King and the Royal Family on the death of the Queen, and recognises her many years of dedicated service to the country.
“As a mark of respect, we have decided to postpone Congress 2022 until later this autumn.”
Retailers Liberty, Selfridges and French Connection kept their stores closed today too, again as a mark of respect.
The mood in the City was subdued today; the usual flood of analyst views and research notes has slowed to a trickle.
Lloyd’s of London, the world’s biggest and oldest insurance market, plans to close its building in the City of London on the day of Queen Elizabeth’s funeral as a mark of respect.
Lloyds also rang its Lutine bell once on Thursday evening to honour the Queen’s passing, just after her death was announced by Buckingham Palace.
The London Stock Exchange is also likely to close on the day of the funeral. Today, though, it has traded as normal, with stocks rising in London in a global rally, as the US dollar has weakened. The FTSE 100 index is 1.6% higher in late trading.
The pound has gained almost a cent, to almost $1.16, but one analyst predicted it could fall to parity during King Charles’s reign.
Strikes by postal and rail workers have been cancelled after the death of Queen Elizabeth II.
Broadcasters, newspaper publishers, radio stations and social media platforms including Snapchat have instituted an unprecedented advertising blackout in response to the death of the Queen.
Elsewhere today….a group of leading economists have warned Ukraine’s government needs to overhaul its tax and spending policies or risk an economic crisis that could “cripple its ability to sustain the war effort”.
Online retailer Asos has said sales in August were weaker than expected and warned that full-year profits would be at the bottom end of its guidance, with the cost of living crisis hitting cash-strapped shoppers.
And European Central Bank policymakers have said interest rates across the eurozone must continue to ratchet upwards to tackle rapidly rising inflation, after the largest rise in ECB rates ever yesterday.
Our latest updates following the Queen’s death are here:
We’ll be back on Monday. GW
The FT reports that Fortnum & Mason stopped the clock at its Piccadilly store, while John Lewis has said the proceeds of flowers sold in its London stores would be passed to charities.
Full story: Bank of England delays interest rate decision after Queen’s death
The Bank of England has delayed a decision over raising interest rates to tackle soaring inflation after the death of the Queen.
The central bank said its rate-setting monetary policy committee (MPC) would postpone its next meeting by a week as the UK observes a period of national mourning. The MPC had been due to meet on 15 September.
In a statement, Threadneedle Street said:
“In light of the period of national mourning now being observed in the United Kingdom, the September 2022 meeting of the monetary policy committee has been postponed for a period of one week.
The committee’s decision will be announced at 12 noon on 22 September.”
The Bank was widely expected to raise interest rates by at least 0.5 percentage points, from the current level of 1.75%, in response to inflation hitting the highest levels since the early 1980s.
Since the central bank was granted independence to set interest rates by the then chancellor, Gordon Brown, in 1997, it has rarely held meetings outside a strictly planned schedule, which is drawn up at least a year in advance.
Several extra emergency meetings have been held in times of economic crises, including the 2008 financial crisis and the Covid pandemic, but delays are unusual.
Lloyd’s of London rang the Lutine bell once on Thursday evening to honour the Queen’s passing, just after her death was announced by Buckingham Palace.
The bell used to be rung on the arrival of news of an overdue ship, once for the ship’s loss and twice for her return, but more recently it has been rung to mark special occasions.
Chairman Bruce Carnegie-Brown also gave a speech on Thursday to express his condolences to the royal family. He said:
“We were lucky to call her a friend and regular visitor to Lloyd’s – and I’m sure every one of us will cherish the memories we had together. Clearly, this loss comes at a time when hope is hard to find in the daily news cycle, which offers more cause for sadness than solace...
Today, we see a whole world united – not just in grief and respect, but in love, admiration and indebtedness. After all, she gave us so much to admire. And it is that shining role model we remember today, and will honour for years to come. In the meantime, our thoughts and prayers will remain with the Royal Family as they mourn.”
Media firms introduce advertising blackouts
Broadcasters, newspaper publishers, radio stations and social media platforms including Snapchat have instituted an unprecedented advertising blackout in response to the death of the Queen, my colleague Mark Sweney writes:
ITV, Channel 4 and Sky are not running any ads on their main channels until at least 5am on Saturday, in accordance with a protocol agreement with Buckingham Palace, however their digital channels such as ITV2, 3 and 4 will continue to do so.
Commercial broadcasters and industry bodies will meet on Friday afternoon to decide whether the blackout should be extended across the weekend, with some advertisers being told they may face penalties if they want to continue the pause on advertising past the officially agreed deadline of Saturday morning.
Twitter has told media agencies, who buy ads on behalf of clients, that it will not run ads in the UK for 48 hours. Snapchat UK has a 24-hour ban on ads around all news and public service content.
Various advertising blackouts have been introduced by News UK, Reach – which owns the Mirror and the Daily Express national newspapers, as well as more than 100 regional titles including the Manchester Evening News – and the publishers of the Daily Mail and the Daily Telegraph.
Here’s the full story:
Lloyd’s of London plans to close its building on the day of Queen Elizabeth’s funeral as a mark of respect, a spokesperson for the commercial insurance market has said.
Chairman Bruce Carnegie-Brown and chief executive John Neal will also no longer attend the global reinsurance industry’s annual conference in Monte Carlo, the spokesperson said.
That conference runs from September 10th to 14th.
Updated
High street retailer French Connection said it will not trade today, PA Media reports.
It explained:
“Following the sad news of the passing of Queen Elizabeth II, we will close the doors of all our French Connection stores on Friday September 9.
“Our thoughts are with the royal family at this time.”
As we covered earlier, Selfridges and Liberty are both keeping their stores closed today too.
Professor Danny Blanchflower, a former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, is very surprised by the delay to this month’s interest rate decision:
Snap reaction to the Bank’s decision:
Bank of England delays interest rate meeting by one week due to royal mourning
Just in: The Bank of England has delayed its next interest rate decision by a week, due to the death on Queen Elizabeth.
The UK’s central bank’s monetary policy committee had been due to meet next week to set interest rates, and to announce their decision on Thursday at noon.
The decision has now been rescheduled to the following Thursday.
The Bank says:
“In light of the period of national mourning now being observed in the United Kingdom, the September 2022 meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee has been postponed for a period of one week.
“The Committee’s decision will be announced at 12 noon on 22 September.”
Economists had been predicting the Bank would raise interest rates again, perhaps by 50 basis points (half a percent) or even 75bp as it tries to cool inflation.
TUC Congress postponed
The TUC has postponed its annual Congress, following the death of the Queen.
TUC Congress 2022 – the annual decision-making body for the federation of trades unions – was due to begin on Sunday at The Brighton Centre, but will now be rescheduled for a later date.
A TUC spokesperson said:
“The General Council sends our condolences to the King and the Royal Family on the death of the Queen, and recognises her many years of dedicated service to the country.
“As a mark of respect, we have decided to postpone Congress 2022 until later this autumn.”
Updated
UK energy support scheme to go ahead as planned - PM's spokesman
Britain will go ahead with plans to introduce an energy price guarantee from October 1st, Prime Minister Liz Truss’s spokesman has said, despite the period of national mourning triggered by the death of Queen Elizabeth.
The government will work with the speaker of the House of Commons to introduce any legislation needed once the mourning period has finished, the spokesman added (via Reuters).
There is no obligation on organisations to suspend business during the National Mourning period.
The National Mourning Guidance, published this morning, says:
Depending on the nature and location of their business and the tone of planned events, some businesses may wish to consider closing or postponing events, especially on the day of the State Funeral, however this is at the discretion of individual businesses.
Public services will continue as usual, although there may be some changes to service availability.
There’s a ‘strong chance’ that the pound could fall through parity against the dollar or euro, or both, during King Charles’ reign, fears Kit Juckes, currency expert at Société Générale.
Juckes says:
Neither is likely this year, but sterling’s post-GFC downtrend won’t end until there’s a seismic change in the direction of economic policy and the economy.
After Blair/Brown’s ‘Cool Britannia’ decade of 3% growth was allowed to get out of control on the back of inadequate financial regulation, GDP growth has averaged a measly 1 ½%, and the current account deficit has averaged almost 4% GDP.
The sad truth is that while Queen Elizabeth was great, her recent governments haven’t been.
Queen Elizabeth was “a beacon of stability and decency” throughout her 70-year reign, says Mark Dowding, CIO of BlueBay Asset Management.
Dowding told clients:
It is notable that expectations surrounding [prime minister Liz Truss are so low (not more than 10% of those polled expect her to be successful in the role), then there is little to lose, and it won’t take much to surprise to the upside. Truss is the 15th Prime Minister, who has been appointed by the Queen, the first being Winston Churchill.
Queen Elizabeth was a beacon of stability and decency throughout her 70-year reign as British monarch, even during difficult times for the country as a whole. We owe her an enormous debt of thanks. God bless her.
Dowding is also hopeful that the UK government’s energy price cap freeze, announced yesterday morning, will mean a lower inflation peak, and a shallower recession:
UK government plans to cap gas prices slightly above April price levels, have led to a substantial revision of UK inflation estimates. Instead of peaking at 18% next April, we now look for CPI to top out under 12% during Q1 2023.
Similarly, the trajectory for growth also looks more encouraging and the UK economy may get away with a mild, rather than a deep recession in the months ahead.
The cost will be huge, though, especially if gas prices don’t fall back.
If the war in Ukraine drags on and wholesale gas prices remain at current levels, then mooted additional support packages from Truss would total approximately £170bn (or 7.7% of GDP) over the next 18 months.
And even freezing typical bills at £2,500 per year will still be a massive strain for vulnerable households.
The Office for National Statistics has postponed all the publications scheduled for today until 9.30am on Monday morning, following the Queen’s death.
But next week’s scheduled publications will go ahead as advertised (unless further changes are announced).
That would include the latest UK GDP, unemployment, inflation and retail sales data –- all important information about the health of the UK economy at a crucial time, as it risks falling into recession.
The economic picture as King Charles III takes the throne has some similarities to the situation when his mother’s reign began in the 1950s, points out Professor Costas Milas, from the management school of University of Liverpool.
When King George VI died in February 1952, the UK economy recorded the following headline statistics (retrieved from the Bank of England’s millennium database): CPI inflation rate of 14.04%, unemployment rate of 1.8%, BoE base rate of 2.5% and 10-year government bond yield of 3.84%.
70 years later, we face (again) double-digit inflation, interest rates on the rise and heading towards their February 1952 levels and, at the same time, very low unemployment...
The Bank of England postponed an inflation attitudes survey it had planned to release today after the death of Queen Elizabeth II, a spokesperson said (via Bloomberg).
There was no comment about whether Bank’s next interest rate decision, scheduled for 15 September, will go ahead as planned.
The MPC is expected to raise interest rates at that meeting, probably by at least 50 basis points (half a percent).
Updated
Last night the Bank of England reassured the public that current banknotes featuring the image of the Queen will continue to be legal tender.
Governor Andrew Bailey said:
“It was with profound sadness that I learned of the death of Her Majesty The Queen.
On behalf of everyone at the Bank I would like to pass on my deepest condolences to the Royal Family. For most of us, she is the only head of state we have ever known, and will be remembered as an inspirational figure for our country and the Commonwealth.”
The Bank’s building at Threadneedle Street will fly a flag at half-mast as a mark of respect.
Despite the sombre mood in the City, both the pound and the FTSE 100 index have pushed higher – as anxiety over the global economy and hawkish central banks eases.
Sterling and the euro have gained over a cent against the dollar – whose weakness today has pushed up stocks. One pound now buys $1.164, up from just over $1.14 at its 37-year low on Wednesday.
Mining companies are rallying, helped by the weaker dollar and lower-than-expected inflation data out of China overnight, lifting the FTSE 100 by 120 points or 1.6%.
Traditionally, a strong pound would pull the FTSE 100 lower (as it make exports less competitive and cuts the value of overseas earnings).
But that relationship seems to have changed, with UK assets moving more in sync, as Reuters’ Andy Bruce shows here:
Updated
Changing the nation’s coins and bank notes, following the Queen’s death, will be a slow process, as my colleague Robert Booth explains:
There are 4.5bn sterling bank notes in circulation with the Queen’s face on them, worth a combined £80bn. Replacing them with alternatives featuring the head of the new monarch is likely to take at least two years.
When the latest synthetic £50 notes were issued, the process of recall and replacement took the Bank of England 16 months. When the Queen acceded to the throne in 1952, the monarch was not featured on the banknotes.
That changed in 1960 when the face of Elizabeth II began to appear on £1 notes in an image created by the banknote designer Robert Austin, which some criticised as too severe.
An image of the new monarch would be agreed with Buckingham Palace. The Queen’s head also features on some $20 banknotes in Canada, on coins in New Zealand, and on all coins and notes issued by the Eastern Caribbean central bank, as well as other parts of the Commonwealth.
Coin designs may be changed more slowly if historical precedent is followed: it was common to have different monarchs in your wallet as the changeover in coins happened organically rather than through recall.
Britain’s steel-making industry paid tribute last night, with trade body UK Steel saying:
Everyone involved in the UK steel sector will be deeply saddened at the death of Her Majesty the Queen.
We all owe her an immense debt of gratitude for the duty and public service to which she dedicated her life in the UK, the Commonwealth, and around the world. The sector sends its thoughts and prayers to her family.
Full story: Royal Mail and rail workers cancel strikes after the Queen’s death
Strikes by postal and rail workers have been cancelled after the death of Queen Elizabeth II my colleague Mark Sweney writes:
Royal Mail workers were due to stage the second day of a 48-hour strike on Friday in a dispute over pay and conditions. Unions cancelled the action after the Queen, the longest-serving monarch in British history, died peacefully at Balmoral on Thursday afternoon, aged 96.
Dave Ward, the general secretary of the Communication Workers Union, said last night:
“Following the very sad news of the passing of the Queen, and out of respect for her service to the country and her family, the union has decided to call off tomorrow’s planned strike action,”
Here’s the full story:
Selfridges and Liberty among stores to remain closed today
While the stock market is open, some retailers have closed their doors as businesses pay tribute to the Queen.
Liberty will not reopen its store in the West End of London until Saturday morning, saying:
Our heartfelt sympathy and thoughts are with the Royal Family at this sad time. As a mark of respect Liberty Store will be closed until Saturday 10th September at 10am while we join the country in mourning.
Selfridges’s stores will remain closed today too, after closing early yesterday after the Queen’s death was announced. They will reopen on Saturday 10th September with our usual opening hours.
The department store chain said:
Queen Elizabeth has been a reassuring constant throughout our lives, ascending to the throne on 6 February 1952, making her the longest-reigning monarch in British history.
Over the past 70 years, her Majesty has been dedicated to the service of our country and the Commonwealth, demonstrating an enormous sense of duty and commitment.
Updated
The Queen was a regular visitor to the City, giving major speeches at Guildhall, opening new buildings, and visiting its most historic church, St. Paul’s Cathedral.
City AM have written a nice piece about the links between the Palace and the Square Mile. Here’s a flavour:
At one lunch at the Guildhall, marking the 40th anniversary of her accession to the throne, she toasted the Square Mile’s joie de vivre.
“This Great Hall has provided me with some of the most memorable events of my life,” she said.
“The hospitality of the City of London is famous around the world, but nowhere is it more appreciated than among the members of my family,” she said at the lunch which took place just days after the fire at Windsor Castle.
That was the famous Annus horribilis speech, when the Queen remarked:
“1992 is not a year on which I shall look back with undiluted pleasure.”
She also attended the opening of the Swiss Re building – better known as The Gherkin – when it first dominated the City of London skyline.
Updated
With the stock market open as usual, the FTSE 100 has risen by almost 1%.
The weakness of the US dollar today is lifting some equities, with mining companies leading the way.
Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Avatrade says:
“Investors are digesting the sad news of Queen’s death in the UK and contemplating Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s most recent statements on inflation.”
It’s been a volatile week in the City, with the announcement of the country’s new Prime Minister and the death of its longest-reigning monarch.
Stocks have been choppy, while government bonds weakened on concerns over the economic outlook, and higher borrowing to fund the energy bill freeze announced ysterday.
The pound is making up some ground against the dollar, recovering from hitting a 37-year low in Wednesday.
Sterling has picked up a cent to $1.16, as the dollar falls back against other currencies.
But as Reuters points out, the pound lost a lot of value over the Queen’s reign:
Elizabeth was crowned in a nation exhausted by victory in World War Two and reigned for 70 years. Sterling is perhaps a mirror on the long decline of empire over that time; pegged at $2.80 in 1952, it touched a 37-year low of $1.1407 this week.
It may yet fall further, as Britain borrows big to pay for energy subsidies economists think might cost £100 billion pounds or more.
Stock market to open as normal today
The London Stock Exchange (LSE) has said markets will open as normal on Friday and will close at normal times today, after the death of Queen Elizabeth
The LSE said it would notify markets of any subsequent changes to operating arrangements via a further notice, adding that it recognised public bank holidays in England and Wales.
Last night, the LSE said:
“We are deeply saddened at the passing of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II.
“Our sympathies and condolences are with the royal family.”
It is expected that the funeral of Queen Elizabeth will be a public holiday, and in this scenario the LSE would be closed for trading.
Updated
Rail and postal unions suspend strikes
Three British trade unions representing postal workers and transport staff are suspending their scheduled strikes following the death of Queen Elizabeth.
Royal Mail members of the Communication Workers Union had planned to take industrial action today over a pay dispute, but the union said it had called off the strike after the passing of the Queen.
The RMT transport union, is suspending strikes planned for September 15th and 17th, saying:
“We express our deepest condolences to her family, friends and the country,”
The TSSA (Transport Salaried Staffs’ Association) said it was cancelling its planned strike action for September and “will be respecting the period of public mourning.”
Introduction: Markets subdued as investors and business groups remember the Queen
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets, and the world economy.
The financial markets are subdued on the first day of national mourning following the death of Queen Elizabeth II.
Business groups and City investors are remembering the Queen’s service over seven decades, and her contribution to modern Britain.
Tony Danker, CBI Director-General, spoke for the business world last night when he hailed her leadership and values:
“Throughout her unprecedented 70 years on the throne, HRH Queen Elizabeth II served the nation with distinction as a stalwart example of British values of honour, dignity and resilience. She dedicated her life to the people of the UK and the Commonwealth, providing compassionate and inspirational leadership during the many challenging times of her long reign.
“Times are hard right now – made more so by the loss of our much-loved Queen – and our tribute should be to work tirelessly to build a better future for the people of this country in memory of Her Majesty.”
The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq both observed a moment of silence yesterday to honour the queen.
The London Stock Exchance has just opened as usual – unlike in sport, where events such as the third Test between England and South Africa and the PGA championship at Wentworth will be paused for at least a day.,
Under Operation London Bridge (the plan for the coming days) the stock market would shut on the day of Elizabeth II’s funeral.
But while the markets are open, the main indices aren’t expected to be volatile, with investors contemplating the Queen’s remarkable reign, and her work at home and abroad.
Bill Blain, strategist at Shard Capital, says Queen Elizabeth was “instrumental in establishing and strengthening the UK’s soft power” and its position on the world stage.
It has been an extraordinary reign by an extraordinary queen – one of simple but unchallenged majesty. Admired and respected around the globe. Deeply loved at home.
For the next 10 days the UK will be in mourning. Life will go on, but don’t expect business as usual.
King Charles III is due to meet Liz Truss and address the nation:
The agenda
Today: EU energy ministers gather for emergency talks in Brussels on Friday discuss measures to counter the energy crisis
Noon: OECD publishes its annual Employment Outlook report
5pm BST: Russian GDP and inflation report
Updated