For markets, the question is no longer whether the Federal Open Market Committee will cut interest rates when it meets next week. Investors, traders and speculators now wonder how big the move will be at the next Fed meeting. They'll look to this week's incoming economic data, including fresh producer and consumer price numbers, for additional guidance.
According to CME Group FedWatch, it is 100% certain Jerome Powell & Co. will trim the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.25% to 4.50%. The greater probability is 25 basis points, or 0.25%, at 88.2%. Recent action reflects rising belief in a 50-basis-point move, up to 11.8% from 0.0% a week ago.
