Markets are near certain of a September rate cut as more presidents turn dovish overnight

Chairman Jerome Powell prepares to deliver remarks to the The Federal Reserve's Division of Research and Statistics Centennial Conference on November 08, 2023 in Washington, DC. (Credit: Chip Somodevilla—Getty Images)

• A sharp downgrade to U.S. jobs data has shifted sentiment at the Fed, with top officials like Neel Kashkari and Mary Daly now signaling support for rate cuts amid signs the labor market is weakening. Economists, including Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel, expect the first cut in September—and warn that if Jerome Powell delays, political blowback could threaten the Fed’s independence.

For the majority of 2025, analysts and investors have begrudgingly backed the stance of Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Looking at the same economic data as the Fed, they have thus far drawn the conclusion that it hasn’t been time to cut.