The stock market rally retreated in a holiday-shortened week as weaker economic data raised recession fears. The major indexes' pullbacks looked normal, but many sectors and leading stocks suffered significant losses, while regional bank stocks faltered. Crude oil prices shot up after OPEC+ unexpectedly announced a big production cut. Treasury yields and the dollar tumbled to multimonth lows on recession fears.
Tesla reported record deliveries in the first quarter thanks to big price cuts and U.S. tax credits. But shipments fell short of views, while production exceeded sales yet again. China EV giant BYD reported a big Q1 delivery jump vs. a year earlier, but its shipments slid vs. Q4. Li Auto sales boomed, while Nio sales in March fell vs. February while XPeng reported a huge drop vs. a year earlier. General Motors and Ford reported strong U.S. sales. Ultimate Fighting parent Endeavor will buy World Wrestling Entertainment in a merger, while Extra Space Storage will acquire Life Storage.
Stock Market Rally Takes Some Hits
The Dow Jones rose, the S&P 500 edged lower and Nasdaq retreated in a short week after running up in prior weeks. The major indexes still look healthy, but there was damage in many leading stocks and sectors amid rising recession risks. Treasury yields and the dollar tumbled to multimonth lows. U.S. crude oil futures spiked on a surprise OPEC+ output cut.
Economic Data Weakens
U.S. markets were scheduled to be closed for Friday's highly anticipated jobs report, but there was still plenty for investors to chew on. The data had a glass-half-empty feel, providing the clearest evidence yet that the job market and economy have turned soft.
The Labor Department, after ironing out its seasonal adjustment methodology, revealed on Thursday that jobless claims have been running much higher than believed. Claims for the March 25 week were revised up by 48,000 to 246,000, dipping to 228,000 in the week through April 1. The 238,750 four-week average of claims is up about 25% since the start of October.
Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that companies announced 89,703 layoffs in March, up 15% from February and 319% from a year ago.
Job openings tumbled by 632,000 in February, though the 9.9 million openings still remained far above pre-pandemic levels.
The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index fell deeper into contractionary territory (below 50), dipping to 46.3 from 47.7. The new orders gauge, a window into future activity, fell 2.7 points to 44.3. The ISM services index, which signaled economic strength earlier in the year, fell 3.9 points to 51.2. The new orders gauge tumbled 10.4 points to 52.2.
Oil Prices, Stocks Soar On Surprise OPEC+ Output Cut
On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and key allies such as Russia, announced an unexpected crude oil production cut of about 1.15 million barrels a day starting in May. Saudi Arabia alone will trim production by 500,000 barrels per day. The oil cartel previously signaled it would hold supply steady throughout 2023. U.S. crude oil prices spiked on the news, after hitting 15-month lows in mid-March. Energy stocks surged on the news.
Tesla Falls After Deliveries
Tesla deliveries hit a record in the first quarter, fueled by big price cuts worldwide and U.S. tax credits, but the electric-vehicle giant fell short of estimates once again. Analysts predict Tesla will continue to face pricing pressure in the near future. Tesla deliveries rose 36% vs. a year earlier to 422,875. That was 4% above the prior record of 405,278 in Q4. But Wall Street was expecting around 431,000 Tesla deliveries, according to FactSet. However, Tesla did beat some other consensus forecasts. First-quarter deliveries included 412,180 Model 3 and Y vehicles, along with 10,695 Model S and X luxury vehicles. Production once again exceeded deliveries, at 440,808. Model S and X production was at 19,437. With deliveries out of the way, the next question is how the price cuts affected Tesla earnings and gross margins — and if further price cuts will be needed. The EV giant is due to report Q1 results on April 19. The average Tesla vehicle selling price in the first quarter was around $46,780, according to FactSet. That's down from $51,400 in the fourth quarter and $52,100 a year ago. Tesla's entry-level Model 3 is expected to lose at least some of its $7,500 U.S. EV tax credit by April 18, when battery material and components rules come into effect.
China EV Sales Generally Rebound
China EV sales rebounded, month over month, in March for BYD, Li Auto and XPeng, but Nio lagged. The Chinese EV makers had seen a weak start to 2023 after the end of subsidies and a price war set off by Tesla. The Chinese New Year holiday in late January also had curbed sales. For the full first quarter, BYD sold more than half a million electric and hybrid cars, nearly doubling sales vs. a year ago, but down vs. Q4. Li Auto outsold Nio and XPeng again last quarter, but all three startups posted Q1 sales near the lower end of their own guidance.
U.S. Auto Sales Top Views
U.S. auto sales came in hotter than expected for the first quarter on the back of rising vehicle inventories and fleet sales, offsetting elevated prices and high auto loan rates. The quarterly sales pace reached an "unexpectedly strong" 15.3 million annualized units, an increase of 8.5% vs. the year-ago quarter, Cox Automotive said. General Motors was the top seller for the quarter, posting an 18% year-over-year sales jump. Ford grew sales 10%. GM was also the top EV seller for the quarter behind dominant Tesla, but most of its sales consisted of older-gen Bolt models, while its new-gen, Ultium-branded EVs slowly ramp up.
WWE Finds Its Fighting Partner
Ultimate Fighter Championship parent Endeavor announced it will buy a 51% majority stake in World Wrestling Entertainment to create a "live sports and entertainment powerhouse" valued at $21.4 billion. The combined firm will trade on the NYSE under the ticker TKO. Endeavor will hold six seats on the new board of directors, while WWE gets five. WWE Chairman Vince McMahon will be chairman of the new company while Endeavor CEO Ariel Emanuel will continue in that position. EDR stock stumbled while WWE stock jumped. Meanwhile, storage REIT Extra Space Storage will buy Life Storage for $12.7 billion in stock. Life Storage previously rejected an $11 billion bid from Public Storage.
Casino Stocks Fall Despite Macau Gaming Boom
Gaming revenue in Macau more than tripled in March, hitting a post-pandemic high after Beijing ended its harsh zero-Covid policy. For the full first quarter, gaming revenue almost doubled as travel curbs eased. It also got a boost from the Chinese New Year holiday in late January. Macau is an administrative region in China and the world's largest gambling hub. Macau-heavy casino giant stocks such as Wynn Resorts initially popped on the news, but fell back.
Simply Good Foods adjusted earnings retreated 11% to 32 cents per share for its Q2 results Wednesday, but still topped expectations of 29 cents per share. Revenue was flat year over year at $297 million as analysts saw a decline to $294 million. Simply Good Foods anticipates U.S. retail take-away will moderate over the year due to a recessionary economic environment. The company expects greater gross margin declines year over year based on current performance and higher supply chain costs for the rest of the year. Conagra Brands earnings leapt 31% to 76 cents per share, easily beating forecasts of 64 cents. Revenue rose 5.9% to $3.1 billion, in line with expectations. The processed-food maker lifted its fiscal 2023 earnings forecast to $2.70 to $2.75 per share on sustained higher food prices. Conagra guided earnings between $2.60 and $2.70 per share in January. Potato products maker Lamb Weston earnings rocketed 95% to $1.43 per share Thursday, blowing away estimates of 99 cents. Lamb Weston raised its FY23 earnings guidance to $4.35 to $4.50 per share, up from $3.75 to $4.00, based on its Lamb Weston Europe, Middle East and Africa consolidation.
In Brief
Smart Global Holdings beat estimates for earnings but missed with sales in its fiscal second quarter ended Feb. 24. The maker of computing, memory and LED lighting products reported a 13% EPS drop with sales down 4% to $429 million.
