A stock market rally attempt gained momentum to start the week, but then suffered an ugly reversal Thursday after initially gaining as Nvidia crushed views and sharply raised guidance yet again. NVDA erased post-earnings gains but was up sharply for the week, although many AI plays fell sharply. Fed chief Jerome Powell on Friday said inflation is too high and rates may have to keep rising.
Meanwhile, many retailers sold off on weak results or guidance, including Dick's Sporting Goods, Foot Locker and Macy's, though Abercrombie & Fitch soared on strong earnings.
Treasury yields jumped to a 15-year high, but then backed off slightly. The U.S. dollar is at a 2023 high.
Market Correction Isn't Over
The stock market rally attempt isn't over for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq but Thursday's downside reversal from the 50-day line was an ominous sign. The correction remains in force for now. Nvidia earnings failed to buoy the market, while many retailers warned on consumer spending. The 10-year Treasury yield pulled back after hitting a 15-year high.
Powell: Rate-Hike Threat Real
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, in his annual Jackson Hole policy speech, said policymakers may need to hike again due to the U.S. economy's surprising strength. However, he stressed that the Fed will "proceed carefully" with any hikes. Overall, the speech seemed to be slightly more hawkish than Powell's comments after the late July Fed meeting. Odds of a late September hike remain low, but are now roughly 50-50 for a move by the Nov. 1 meeting.
Economic Data Mixed
The latest batch of data came in mixed, detracting a bit from perceptions that the U.S. economy is on a tear in the third quarter.
S&P Global's flash U.S. composite output index fell to 50.4 in August, just above the 50 neutral level, from 52 in July. The services activity index slipped to 51 from 52.3, also a six-month low. The manufacturing output index dipped back into contractionary territory, falling 2.7 points to 47.5.
Durable goods orders fell 5.2% in July, and the picture wasn't exactly robust even excluding typical volatility in Boeing aircraft orders. Core capital goods orders, seen as a proxy for capital spending, edged up 0.1%, while the prior month's orders were revised down to -0.2% from an initial read of +0.4%.
Still, there's no sign of rising layoffs, with new jobless claims falling to 230,000 in the week through Aug. 19, down from 240,000 the prior week. The number of people continuing to claim jobless benefits fell to 1.702 million, down nearly 9% from the recent peak in early April.
Meanwhile, new home sales rose to a 714,000 annual rate, a 17-month high, from a downwardly revised 684,000 the month before. That improvement comes as existing home sales remain mired near long-term lows due to limited supply: July's annual pace of 4.07 million fell 2.2% vs, June and 16.6% from a year earlier.
AI Chips Drive Nvidia Beat
Artificial intelligence chipmaker Nvidia smashed Wall Street's lofty expectations for its fiscal second quarter and guided much higher than views for the current period. It was the second big beat-and-raise quarter in a row for Nvidia. On a year-over-year basis, its earnings rocketed 429% while sales soared 101% thanks to massive demand for chips and hardware for AI data centers. Nvidia predicted its sales will rise 170% in the current quarter. Analog Devices missed estimates for its fiscal third quarter as customers work through high inventories. It also guided lower for the current quarter. And Marvell Technology narrowly beat fiscal Q2 targets and provided an in-line outlook for Q3.
Retailers Cite Consumer Woes
Macy's reported yet another quarter of year-over-year declines, with adjusted EPS off 74% but still beating views. The department store giant said it's cautious about consumer spending. Dick's Sporting Goods and Foot Locker slashed guidance after disappointing quarterly results. Dick's blamed its woes in part on higher theft and organized crime, while Foot Locker noted consumer issues. Several other retailers had poor results.
Young Adult Stores Are Bright Spots
Abercrombie & Fitch, Urban Outfitters and Guess reported strong earnings that easily beat views with revenue growth also topping. Abercrombie and Guess also raised guidance. Those two stocks skyrocketed. URBN stock rose on earnings but tumbled for the week.
Miniso Earnings Jump
Chinese retailer Miniso topped fiscal Q4 estimates, with a 127% EPS gain. Revenue grew 30% to $448.5 million. Miniso opened 277 stores in the quarter, including 56 overseas. In Chinese currency terms, adjusted profit per ADS grew 150% on 40% revenue growth. MNSO stock surged past a shelf formation.
Software Earnings
Human resources software maker Workday easily topped Wall Street's Q2 estimates. EPS leapt 72% while revenue climbed 16% to $1.79 billion. WDAY stock rose modestly. Snowflake reported a big jump in earnings while revenue climbed 36% to $674 million. The data analytics software maker guided in line after cutting estimates multiple times. CFO Michael Scarpelli said Snowflake is seeing "encouraging signs of stabilization, but not recovery" for corporate software spend. SNOW stock reversed lower on Thursday.
News In Brief
Splunk jumped after the data analytics software firm easily beat Q2 views and raised its full-year outlook. Revenue increased 14% to $911 million, easily beating views. EPS skyrocketed to 71 cents. Shares gapped out of a base.
Baidu reported a 43% increase in net profit, soundly beating Q2 views. Revenue increased 15% to $4.67 billion, also topping forecasts. The Chinese search giant said AI presents "a significant market opportunity for us." U.S.-listed BIDU shares climbed 2.75% Tuesday.
Zoom Video beat views with a 28% EPS gain in its July-ended Q2 with revenue up 4% to $1.14 billion. The video conferencing company also raised guidance for the rest of the year. ZM shares were up fractionally for the week as of Friday afternoon.
Lowe's reported a 2% EPS decline, topping views, while sales fell 9%, in line with forecasts. Professional sales were strong. LOW stock rose modestly.
Boeing found a new 737 Max manufacturing issue that could delay deliveries again. It's a job done by supplier Spirit AeroSystems. Boeing says it has a fix. BA stock fell while SPR tumbled.
Moderna and Covid vaccine makers jumped Monday amid reports of rising Covid-related hospitalizations. MRNA also benefited from a new deal with China's Carsgen to study a cancer vaccine regimen. The companies will test Moderna's off-the-shelf cancer vaccine with Carsgen's cell therapy. The cell therapy has shown promise in patients with gastric, pancreatic and other digestive system cancers.
Toll Brothers reported a 59% EPS gain, the second straight quarter of accelerating growth, while revenue rose 8%. Both beat fiscal Q3 views. The luxury homebuilder guided higher. Shares rose.
Autodesk, a maker of software for computer-aided design and workflows, beat estimates for its fiscal second quarter and topped views with its outlook. Its Q2 earnings increased 16% while sales advanced 9% to $1.35 billion.
NetEase, one of China's leading online games and internet services providers, topped Q2 EPS estimates with a 61% gain, but sales disappointed with a 3% drop to $3.3 billion.
Intuit beat fiscal Q4 views but offered a mixed outlook for the current period. The financial software firm's EPS grew 50%, with sales up 12% to $2.71 billion.
