With the World Cup in the stages of winding down, we have a chance to reflect on the U.S. men's national soccer team and the complicated notion of progress.
It's a word we heard often before, during and after its four games in Qatar but, really, what does progress mean and how do you quantify it?
If it's progress from 2018, when the Yanks failed to qualify for a World Cup for the first time in 28 years, then yes, it's a step forward if for no other reason than they had taken a step back.
If it's progress from results at previous World Cups, no, they did what they usually do. Scratch and claw their way out of the group stage, then exit in the round of 16. That also happened in 2010 and 2014. And in some ways, they were closer to advancing then — extra time losses against Ghana and Belgium — than the 3-1 drubbing by the Netherlands in Qatar. They officially finished 12th in 2010, 15th in 2014 and 14th in 2022.
If it's progress in developing young players through some of Europe's biggest clubs, yes. They are represented at Chelsea, Arsenal, Juventus, AC Milan, Valencia and Borussia Dortmund.
If it's getting any closer to winning a World Cup, well, good question. The jury is still sequestered.
Watch the reactions of players after the final whistle against the Netherlands, listen to their interviews, and it becomes clear their disappointment was rooted in a genuine conviction that they were going to win the World Cup. There's a difference between saying it and believing it, and this team did both. That's progress.
But it's a slippery slope climbing to the top, a fine line between confidence and arrogance, between expectation and entitlement.
"I'm really proud of this team, how far we've come," Christian Pulisic told Fox. "I hope we showed a lot of people what we can do. It really is a shame, I thought. You know, we deserved more from this tournament."
An interesting choice of words: deserved more.
Because, exactly, why? This is a nation that has been past the round of 16 once since 1950 (the quarterfinals in 2002), tied a Wales team that hasn't won a World Cup game since 1958 and hung on for dear life against an Iran team that has never advanced past the first round. And got thumped by a Dutch team that was ravaged by the flu and, if you listened to Fox studio analysts, wasn't any good.
A dose of humility, then, might be necessary as we move toward 2026, an understanding that you can't speak World Cup titles into existence, that nobody is owed them, that they require years of meticulous planning and shrewd maneuvering. You need the right mentality, the right coach, the right players and the right preparation, and even then that might not be enough.
Here's what else needs to happen between now and then to just be in the conversation.
The coach
Admit it. Gregg Berhalter did a better job than you expected.
He got the U.S. qualified after the 2018 fiasco. He won the CONCACAF Gold Cup and Nations League. He had a 37-11-12 record, with a goal differential of plus-77. He convinced several promising players with dual citizenship to pledge their allegiance to the Stars and Stripes. He tied England 0-0. He got out of the first round at the World Cup.
He's worthy of getting a new contract as national coach.
He just shouldn't.
History is whispering in our ears: Second-cycle coaches regularly crash and burn.
The raw statistic is that heading into these quarterfinals, of the 67 times a team had the same coach as the previous World Cup, only 19 finished better (we're still waiting for the results of three examples in Qatar). That doesn't count the coaches who were retained after one World Cup and never made it to a second; that happened seven times after 2014, eight after 2018.
Some argue that the numbers are flawed, that there's a natural regression to the mean, that teams retaining coaches generally do so because they exceeded expectations and the odds are stacked against them from doing it again. They also point to six of the eight quarterfinalists in Qatar being led by second-cycle coaches.
But they're also teams you and I could coach: Brazil, France, England, France, Portugal and Croatia. Let's see, we'd start Neymar, Vinicius Junior and Richarlison.
They forget that mid-majors like Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, Serbia, Ukraine, Peru, Morocco and Saudi Arabia initially kept their 2018 coaches, and none lasted the four years. Most were gone in 12 months. Three nations failed to qualify for 2022.
If you want to disqualify the global numbers, fine. Just look at the U.S. history of second-cycle coaches.
Bruce Arena got a new contract after leading the Yanks to the 2002 quarterfinals in South Korea … then went winless and finished last in his group in 2006. Bob Bradley was retained after reaching the second round in 2010 … and was fired a year later when the national team went flat. Jurgen Klinsmann was extended through 2018 six months before the 2014 World Cup … and was fired in 2016 amid a disastrous qualifying campaign, and we all know how that ended.
Continuity breeds complacency. You're not rolling out the same lineup in 2026 that you did in 2022. Hard decisions need to be made, and second-cycle coaches tend to ride with the guys who got them the contract extension. Chemistry can sour, too. Witness Roberto Martinez and Belgium's implosion in Qatar despite one of the tournament's most talented and experienced rosters.
There's another reason to thank Berhalter for his service and post the job opening: because of who might apply. This is an ascendant team that now gets to play on home soil in what could be a transcendent tournament in 2026. Maybe Louis Van Gaal, the Dutch coach who schooled Berhalter in Qatar, wants to live in the States. Maybe Pep Guardiola or Jurgen Klopp do.
You turning any of them down?
The player pool
The U.S. had the second youngest roster in Qatar, but that doesn't mean you can plug and play the same 11 in 2026. The starting center backs will be 33 and 38 in four years, and one of the backups will be 34, so you need several replacements there. Two midfield backups, Cristian Roldan and Kellyn Acosta, will be in their 30s as well. The starting goalkeeper will be 32, although age is less of a concern at that position.
Overall depth needs improvement, given the uncertainty of injuries and the value of squad rotation in the group stage to save legs for the business end of the tournament (something Berhalter couldn't or wouldn't do in Qatar). The starters were exhausted by the time they got to the round of 16, and you saw what happened on the first Dutch goal when Tyler Adams, the man who never stops running, didn't track back.
But the big hole is up top, at No. 9. The Yanks didn't have a quality center forward and they tried three: Josh Sargent, Hagi Wright or Jesus Ferreira. Maybe Jordan Pefok from German club Union Berlin or 19-year-old Ricardo Pepi from FC Groningen of the Netherlands should have been included in the roster. Or maybe it's someone who has yet to land on the national team radar.
The point is, they need to find somebody.
Give it two, maybe three years. Don't find a suitable striker by 2025, then maybe the system should be adjusted to the personnel instead of the other way around. Tweak the tactical approach. Play with a "false 9," as Spain did in winning the 2010 World Cup. Try something else. Three goals in four games, and none from your No. 9, is not good enough.
The promising part is you don't have to nudge players to go to Europe to sharpen their skills in the crucible of elite competition, as you did after 2014 when there was a reverse exodus of U.S. stars to Major League Soccer. They already know it. They just have to look at the starting lineup in the do-or-die group finale against Iran: All 11 play in Europe.
The schedule
As 2026 hosts, the U.S. doesn't have to qualify for a World Cup for the first time since 1994, when it also hosted.
This is a good thing because, as we learned in 2018, even playing in the world's weakest region doesn't guarantee a spot for a nation of 335 million. This is also a bad thing, because teams can lose their competitive sheen without the pottery kiln of qualifying, which might explain why the host nation has won only one of the last 11 World Cups (and that was France in 1998, when Ronaldo suffered a seizure in the hours before the final that unsettled Brazil).
"During World Cup qualifying, that's where it went to another level," goalkeeper Matt Turner told Fox about the team's harmony. "It was a pressure-cooking environment. You had to rely on so many different guys from so many different places, warm weather, cold weather, losses, wins, three games in one window, short turnarounds. From the staff, the sacrifices that they all made, the athletic trainers, the physios, all that, the sacrifices to be away from their families, the long hours, the kit men that have to break things down and put it back together, it really created a great unity and respect amongst the entire organization."
So the focus between now and June 2026 should be finding competitive games in tough environments instead of the usual diet of Grenadas and El Salvadors (their two scheduled games during the March international window), to create diamonds through pressure, to build resilience and connectivity. Request a guest entry into the 2024 Copa America, the South American championship. Refuse to host the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup for the umpteenth time, or send a B team while the A team barnstorms the globe for better games.
Priority should be given to playing European teams in Europe, for two reasons.
One is that most of your best players are based there, reducing the travel burden and keeping their club managers happy when they don't return exhausted from trans-Atlantic flights. The other is that if they want to do anything in 2026, they have to figure out how to beat the Euros.
It is the most overlooked statistic of the men's national team: 1-12-7. That's the U.S. record in World Cups since 1990 against European opposition: 20 games, one win, 12 losses, seven ties, 16 goals scored, 35 conceded. The 3-1 loss to the Netherlands in Qatar extended the winless streak to 12.
It's not just the U.S. Brazil can't beat the Euros, either, eliminated by them in the last five World Cups since beating Germany in the 2002 final.
And the expanded field in 2026 will include 16 European teams, which means you're going to run into them frequently. In Qatar, they comprised half the round of 16 and five of the eight quarterfinalists. In 2018, all four semifinalists.
Over the past four years, the U.S. faced European teams six total times in friendlies. Not nearly enough. You're not learning how to beat Germany by playing Grenada.
