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Fortune
Fortune
Sasha Rogelberg

Mark Zandi warns recession odds are creeping toward 50%, and the Iran war could launch us into economic turmoil by midyear

Pete Hegseth speaks behind a podium as Donald Trump watches behind him. (Credit: Jim WATSON / AFP—Getty Images)

Economists are only growing more antsy about the state of the economy as the conflict in Iran continues.

Moody’s Analytics raised its recession outlook for the next 12 months to 48.6%, following the same pattern as Goldman Sachs, which now forecasts a 30% risk of recession, and EY-Parthenon, which put recession odds at 40%. The baseline probability of a recession sits around 15% to 20%.

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