Mark Z. Barabak: Political pollsters have gotten a black eye. Here’s how they hope to do better

It’s been a rough few years for those taking the nation’s political pulse.

In 2016 pollsters underestimated Donald Trump’s appeal, feeding perceptions Hillary Clinton was headed to the White House. Then, after they swore to do better, a similar thing happened in 2020, when surveys overestimated the strength of Joe Biden and Democratic chances of romping to big majorities in the House and Senate.

Recently some of the country’s top poll takers got together in Chicago for their first in-person confab since the pandemic began. There were the usual convention staples: Awards banquet. A “fun run.” Karaoke! And plenty of arcane panels along the lines of “Measuring and Modeling Neighborhoods” and “Universal Adaptability: A New Method to Draw Inference from Non-Probability Surveys and Other Data Sources.”