For decades, Kentucky football’s paradigm was that, in the bad seasons, the Wildcats would win two or three games while in the good years UK would win six or seven.
From that perspective, it is a big-picture sign of program growth that Kentucky — having won 10 games in two of the four seasons before the current one — went 7-5 in 2022 and, seemingly by acclaim, the year is considered a disappointment.
Coming off a season when expectations soared but results declined, UK head man Mark Stoops faces the challenging task of “re-fitting” a Kentucky program that seemed to lose its way a bit in a frustrating 2022.
“You have to really look at things and make sure we’re growing and moving the program to where we all want it to be,” Stoops said Saturday after UK’s 26-13 win over Governor’s Cup rival Louisville. “... I got to get in to work tomorrow and really take a good look at things and see where we are at and go from there.”
Here are three pivotal questions Stoops needs to get right before the Cats open their 2023 season on Sept. 2 vs. Ball State.
— Question one: What should be done about the Kentucky offense?
Things obviously did not go well for UK in Rich Scangarello’s debut season coordinating the Wildcats attack.
Out of 131 Football Bowl Subdivision programs, Kentucky stands 88th in passing (216.1 yards a game), 88th in third-down conversion percentage (36.8), 105th in scoring (22.1 points a game), 106th in total offense (336.3 yards a game), 106th in red-zone efficiency (78.7 percent) and 109th in rushing (120.2).
Even with those numbers, the case for continuity and giving Scangarello more time is considerable. UK has had three different offensive coordinators in the past three seasons. Zach Yenser, who like Scangarello came to UK from the San Francisco 49ers coaching staff, is the Wildcats’ fourth offensive line coach in the past three years.
At some point, the need for stability becomes paramount.
Scangarello, who had been coaching in the NFL since 2017 before coming to Lexington, may have underestimated the difficulty in transitioning back into the college game.
Asked after UK’s win over U of L what explained the Wildcats’ season-long struggles in the red zone, Scangarello said he wouldn’t go into all of it. But, on reflection, he thought more aggressive play-calling on first down was necessary. Scangarello also said the deliberate pace of his system meant that, on third-down plays near the goal line, opponents always had time to insert their best pass-rushing units.
Going forward, he suggested playing faster between second and third downs could prevent those defensive substitutions.
It is entirely possible that, in a year two, Scangarello would “figure a lot out” in ways that would prove beneficial.
But if Stoops changing OCs again would be risky, not doing so also carries substantial risk.
If you keep Scangarello and the offense performs in 2023 as it did in 2022, you would have impeded a second season by refusing to correct what was obviously a deficient area in the previous year.
— Question two: What should be done about the Kentucky special teams?
The struggles of UK’s long-snapping and place-kicking unit became a dominant narrative in the Wildcats’ 2022 disappointment. Missed place-kicks from make-able range hurt Kentucky in losses to Mississippi, Vanderbilt and Georgia and an errant long-snap in punt formation almost gave away a game at Missouri that UK had under control.
Though running backs coach John Settle and safeties coach Frank Buffano hold the titles of co-special team coordinators, a UK quality control aide, Louie Matsakis, oversees the special teams.
Having an actual on-the-field coach with special expertise serve as the dedicated special-teams coach would send a message to players and the public alike that the head coach puts a premium on being good in the kicking game.
It seems past time for Stoops to send that message.
— Question three: What should be done with UK recruiting?
One year after Kentucky’s 2022 recruiting class was ranked 14th in the country in the 24/7 Sports Composite Rankings, the Wildcats’ 2023 class stands 50th.
From the outside, UK’s recruiting process this year has not looked as focused and energetic as in past cycles.
Whether that primarily reflects the loss of key administrative aide Dan Berezowitz due to an off-field issue; the recent departures of assistants such as Steve Clinkscale, Jon Sumrall and Eric Wolford who were unusually strong recruiters; UK getting slow out of the gates in the changing NIL landscape; or some combination of all the above, it is vital Stoops and Co. get things figured out.
In fairness, Kentucky’s low team ranking in the 2023 class is more about quantity than quality. UK only has 13 commitments. According to Rivals.com, UK’s class of 2023 ranks 52nd in the country — but has an average star rating per recruit, 3.23, that is better than 27 teams ranked ahead of the Cats.
Still, moving forward, Stoops needs to make sure that the processes upon which Kentucky football recruiting functions are up-to-date and still operating at a level that will allow UK to remain competitive in an SEC that will only grow tougher when Texas and Oklahoma join the party in 2025.
