If you have a firm feeling on what to expect from the Kentucky Wildcats men’s basketball team in the 2023 edition of March Madness, you are ahead of me.
My firsthand memory of UK men’s hoops goes back to Adolph Rupp’s final two seasons on the UK bench. In all that time, I don’t ever recall a more unpredictable ride through a regular season than John Calipari’s current Cats have produced.
I began the 2022-23 season all but sure that a relatively veteran Kentucky roster would thrive on college basketball’s biggest stages.
Instead, UK was beaten decisively by UCLA (CBS Sports Classic), Kansas (SEC/Big 12 Challenge) and Gonzaga (marquee matchup) and frittered away a contest it should have won against Michigan State (Champions Classic).
Once SEC play began, games I have been sure Kentucky would win — South Carolina, at Georgia, Vanderbilt on Senior Night in Rupp Arena — have been lost.
Conversely, contests in which I thought UK was an all-but-certain loser — at then-No. 5 Tennessee in January, at Arkansas this past Saturday while playing without a true point guard — have been won.
Now, as UK’s roller coaster of a season barrels into the postseason, there’s another surprise: Some of the omens that have been harbingers of past Wildcats runs to March Madness glory suggest that this year’s up-and-down Cats (21-10, 12-6 SEC) could be set up to thrive.
Omen one. None of the eight Kentucky teams that have won an NCAA championship ever lost a game — not a single one — to border rival Tennessee.
At least for now, that box is checked for the 2022-23 Wildcats. UK stunned UT 63-56 in Knoxville on Jan. 14, then spanked the Volunteers again 66-54 at Rupp Arena on Feb. 18.
With Rick Barnes’ Vols seeded No. 5 in this week’s SEC Tournament and Kentucky seeded No. 3, the only way UT can get another shot at UK would for both teams to make the league tourney championship game.
Omen two. All eight of UK’s NCAA title teams had at least one product of Kentucky high school basketball among their top six scorers.
Presently, that box is checked, too, for the 2022-23 Wildcats. Former Covington Catholic star CJ Fredrick is averaging a relatively modest 6.7 points per game but that makes him UK’s sixth-leading scorer, narrowly ahead of freshman forward — and Akron, Ohio, product — Chris Livingston (6.3 points).
Omen three. Since the SEC Tournament was relaunched in 1978-79 after a long period of dormancy, no Kentucky team that has gone to the NCAA Final Four has ever done so without first reaching the SEC Tournament championship game.
In 1984, 1993, 1997, 1998, 2011 and 2015, UK teams that made the Final Four preceded that achievement by winning the SEC tourney.
Meanwhile, in 1996, 2012 and 2014, Wildcats teams that reached the NCAA Tournament national semifinals preceded that success by finishing as SEC tourney runner-up.
So when Kentucky opens play in the SEC tourney quarterfinals in Nashville on Friday night against either Vanderbilt, Georgia or LSU, the current Cats will commence seeking to put another omen of past UK NCAA tourney success in their favor.
In the larger picture, the track record of conference tourney success preceding NCAA Tournament triumph is not as pronounced for other teams as it has been for Kentucky.
Since the NCAA tourney expanded to at least 64 teams in 1984, there have been 37 national champions crowned (as you will recall, there was no NCAA Tournament in 2020 due to efforts to contain the coronavirus pandemic).
Of those 37 NCAA champs, fewer than half, 16, won their conference tournament prior to winning the national tourney. In more recent seasons, five of the past 12 NCAA champs won their league tournament.
Whether one sees causation, correlation or coincidence in the shared traits of past UK championship/Final Four teams is a matter of individual judgment.
Obviously, not every Kentucky team that has swept Tennessee has gone on to win the NCAA title.
Not every UK season that has featured a product of Kentucky high school hoops among the Wildcats’ top six scorers has ended with the Cats as national champs.
Not every Kentucky team that has reached the finals of the modern SEC Tournament has gone on to make the NCAA Tournament Final Four.
But at least so far in UK basketball history, not checking those three “omen boxes” has never ended with Kentucky being the last team to cut down nets.
This weekend, Oscar Tshiebwe, Jacob Toppin, Antonio Reeves and Co. will be seeking to end Kentucky’s five-year drought of not making the SEC Tournament finals (due to COVID-19, there was no SEC tourney in 2020).
If you put stock in the omens, the 2022-23 Cats returning UK basketball to the SEC Tournament finals could be a key to Wildcats success in the far more important tourney to follow.
