Welcome back to this year’s men’s NCAA tournament danger rankings! After a chaotic regular season that featured upsets galore, it seems inevitable that we’ll have plenty of surprises at the top of the bracket throughout the tournament. Last year’s rankings did correctly identify three first-weekend exits among the top-four seeds, including the Purdue Boilermakers, which famously lost to the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights in the first round.
Here’s a look at the teams that might be facing early exits from the Big Dance this time around.
[ March Madness 2024: News & Analysis | Schedule | Bracket ]
North Carolina Tar Heels (No. 1 seed, West Region)
Five of the last six tournaments have featured at least one No. 1 seed failing to reach the second weekend. There’s not an easy target in this year’s top seed group, but North Carolina feels the most vulnerable. The Heels come in at ninth on KenPom, and the efficiency margin gap between the Heels and third-ranked No. 1 seed Purdue is essentially equal to the margin between the Tar Heels and the No. 9 seed Michigan State Spartans, a potential second-round foe for Hubert Davis’s team.
North Carolina has exceeded its talent level this season thanks to smart role allocation, togetherness and star power at the top in RJ Davis. But continuing that in March won’t be easy. Second-round matchups against the Mississippi State Bulldogs (which sport three wins over teams above the Heels on KenPom this season) or Michigan State (a preseason top-five team) could trip up the Heels.
Amber Searls/USA TODAY Sports
Marquette Golden Eagles (No. 2 seed, South Region)
Marquette went home in the second round of last year’s tournament, upset by Michigan State to end a dream season. Could the same fate be looming this year? It’s a difficult path out of the first weekend for Shaka Smart’s team, and Golden Eagles star guard Tyler Kolek is still nursing an oblique injury that could slow down one of the nation’s best point guards.
Opening-round matchup Western Kentucky won’t be easy. The Hilltoppers are the champions of Conference USA, a league in which the automatic qualifier has won a game in the Dance in five of the last seven tournaments. WKU has a dynamic guard in Don McHenry and veterans from power conference programs on the wings and up front. Assuming Marquette survives that, a tricky second-round meeting with the Florida Gators, Colorado Buffaloes or Boise State Broncos looms. Florida has been a trendy pick to make a deep run thanks to the Gators’ overwhelming size and veteran guards while Colorado and Boise State are each top-40 KenPom teams that have entered March very hot. This is a tough draw.
Related: March Madness Brackets: Expert Predictions for the 2024 Men’s NCAA Tournament
Iowa State Cyclones (No. 2 seed, East Region)
The Cyclones will be a trendy pick to reach at least the Elite Eight, coming into the tournament off the team’s best performance of the season in a blowout win over the Houston Cougars. But the Cyclones’ flaws still make them a vulnerable team should they have a poor offensive performance at the wrong time. Iowa State ranks No. 55 in offensive efficiency per KenPom, the second-worst mark among top-four seeds ahead of only the Kansas Jayhawks. Iowa State is just 7–5 this season when it shoots under 30% from beyond the arc, and both potential second-round foes—Washington State Cougars and Drake Bulldogs—are good at defending the arc. Plus, Iowa State relies heavily on forcing turnovers to key its elite defense, and both Wazzu and Drake have been very solid at taking care of the ball this season.
Plus, we’ve already seen some brutal offensive displays from T.J. Otzelberger’s Iowa State teams in previous seasons. They mustered just 56 points in the Sweet 16 against Miami in 2022, then just 41 against the Pittsburgh Panthers in the Round of 64 a year ago. This is by far the Cyclones’ best team yet under Otzelberger, but all it takes is one terrible night from the floor to leave Iowa State vulnerable.
Related: March Madness: Forty Things to Watch in the 2024 NCAA Men’s Tournament
Baylor Bears (No. 3 seed, West Region)
Baylor won it all in 2021 but has made first-weekend exits in each of the past two seasons. Is a third in store this time around? The Bears have shown some more grit on the defensive end lately after struggling mightily early in the season but still rate well outside the top 50 of KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric. And while Bears freshmen Ja’Kobe Walter and Yves Missi are incredibly talented, they’re also liable to buckle under the pressures of the Big Dance, especially with a potentially tricky second-round matchup against either the Clemson Tigers or New Mexico Lobos. Don’t be surprised if the West winds up being the region with the most chaos this year.
Related: 10 Potential Cinderellas in 2024 Men’s NCAA Tournament
Kansas Jayhawks (No. 4 seed, Midwest Region)
Kansas has wins over the UConn Huskies, Houston, Tennessee Volunteers and Kentucky Wildcats as part of a loaded résumé. But the Jayhawks limp into March Madness both literally and figuratively, losers of four of five and dealing with injuries to their two best players in Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson. Both are expected to play starting with the Jayhawks’ matchup against the Samford Bulldogs on Thursday, but for a team that already severely lacks depth, dealing with injury woes is the last thing Bill Self wants.
While it’s still going to be difficult for run-and-gun Samford to knock off KU, a second-round meeting with the Gonzaga Bulldogs could be brutal. The Zags are actually higher than Kansas on KenPom and are playing their best basketball of the season at the right time, with Ryan Nembhard surging at the point guard spot and Gonzaga’s deep stable of bigs a commodity against Dickinson and the Jayhawks. It might not be a long stay in the Dance for KU.
