House Democrats will need to overperform Vice President Harris by roughly three percentage points in swing districts to capture the majority in 2026, according to an Axios analysis of presidential margins in congressional districts.
Why it matters: In special elections over the last year, Democrats have been surpassing Harris' 2024 margins by double digits, putting the majority clearly in reach.
- But the universe of competitive House seats is historically small, meaning that even an unambiguous national move toward the Democrats will result in a relatively narrow Democratic majority.
Flashback: The 2018 midterms saw a 6.5 percentage point swing in Democrats' favor compared to President Trump's 2016 margins, giving them 41 new seats for a 235 -199 majority, according to the Cook Political Report.
- A similar shift in 2026 would translate into 12 additional Democratic seats, giving them a 227-208 majority, according to the data, which includes redistricted maps, according to The Downballot and Sabato's Crystal Ball.
The other side: If GOP candidates fare just 1% better than Trump did last cycle, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) could add another 12 seats to his majority, putting him at a comfortable 232-204 margin.
Zoom out: Democrats are banking that the electorate will look a lot less Trumpy when the president's name is not on the ballot. Their voters, Democrats argue, are highly motivated and engaged when Trump is in office.
- Republicans haven't hit the panic button, but they are starting to look for it, with private chatter about the possibility of losing the Senate.
- A recent shock upset in a conservative Texas state Senate contest sent shockwaves throughout the party. It prompted a memo from the National Republican Senatorial Committee to raise alarms about their contested primary.
- Still, GOP strategists are smiling at their sizable cash advantage and take comfort in the strength of their incumbents.
Zoom in: Presidential performance in a congressional district doesn't guarantee a predetermined outcome, but in the Trump era, the number of crossover districts is at a historic low.
- Thirteen House Democrats prevailed in seats that Trump carried in 2024. A total of three Republicans held on in Harris districts.
- In 2008, after President Obama's first election, there were 83 crossover districts.
- Two of the best lawmakers at convincing voters to split their ticket — Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who won in a Harris +4.6 district, and Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine), who won in a Trump +9 district — are both retiring.
What we're watching: After tit-for-tat redistricting in six states, Republicans appear to have drawn themselves another three seats.
- Democrats on Thursday proposed adding another four in Virginia (pending judicial review), but Republicans are plotting to equalize in Florida.
What they are saying: "House Democrats overperformed the top of the ticket in 2024 and gained seats despite a challenging political environment," said Viet Shelton, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
- "The consistent, double-digit Democratic overperformance in virtually every election since then sends a very clear message: the American people are pissed about Republicans' cost-raising agenda and are ready to vote them out of office."
- "Republicans are on offense nationwide, delivering real results, and building the strongest operation we've had in years," said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Mike Marinella.
- "While Democrats are stuck in chaos and chasing the far-left, we're focused on winning seats and expanding the House majority."
Editor's note: This article has been corrected to note that Republicans appear to have drawn themselves another three seats from mid-cycle redistricting (not eight).
