Data: The Downballot and Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Map: Kavya Beheraj/Axios
House Democrats will need to overperform Vice President Harris by roughly three percentage points in swing districts to capture the majority in 2026, according to an Axios analysis of presidential margins in congressional districts.
Why it matters: In special elections over the last year, Democrats have been surpassing Harris' 2024 margins by double digits, putting the majority clearly in reach.
