Manchester United hit the buffers at Villa Park on Sunday and they are going to need to fare a good deal better when the sides meet again on Thursday if they want to stay in the EFL Cup.
The circumstances are very different to Sunday, however, and go some way to explaining why the Reds are as short as 4/6 with Betfred to get revenge. Villa are 9/2 chances to repeat the dose and knock United out in 90 minutes.
Villa Park was bouncing for Unai Emery's first game in charge and those early goals meant United were not able to quieten the home crowd. The Reds were toothless in attack - they are simply not the same side when Cristiano Ronaldo starts - but Erik ten Hag will be able to call on the services of Bruno Fernandes, who was badly missed on Sunday. His replacement Donny van de Beek was pretty much anonimous. Jadon Sancho could also return so Ten Hag has more offensive options than on Sunday.
That wouldn't be difficult, mind. The Reds posted their lowest xGF of the season (0.6) but, despite scoring three goals, Aston Villa only managed to generate an xGF of 0.6 themselves, which emphasises the fact that it was a game of few big chances.
Aston Villa reached the final of this competition in 2019/20 but that season aside, they haven't progressed beyond the fourth round since 2013. Of course, they have a new manager in charge now and one that is renowned for his ability to progress teams in cup competitions. Even in his brief spell at Arsenal he managed to guide them to the final of the Europa League.
Emery will obviously be aiming to push his side as high up the league as possible, but if they can go deep in a cup as well, something Villa couldn't do under Steven Gerrard, then the Spaniard will quickly become very popular with the Villa faithful.
Manchester United vs Aston Villa prediction
Prior to Sunday, United had gone seven consecutive matches without conceding from open play and Erik ten Hag will be keen to ensure that defensive solidity returns quickly. Villa didn't actually create many big chances on Sunday and they have managed just one goal in their last four away games.
With that in mind, siding with Under 2.5 Goals (even money) is a tempting option but there is better value in backing the hosts to win to nil, which is a tasty 17/10 chance with Betfred.
Manchester United vs Aston Villa prediction: Manchester United to win to nil - 17/10
Manchester United vs Aston Villa odds with Betfred
- Manchester United - 4/6
- Draw - 3/1
- Aston Villa - 9/2
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