Home is where the heart is – and this time, I can't see Manchester City slipping up in the Champions League at the Etihad.
It is rare for Pep Guardiola to get knocked out of any cup competition on home soil. It happened in Europe against Liverpool in 2018 and then against Tottenham 12 months later, although I think it's fair to say Spurs got the rub of the green that night.
So I make Guardiola's men favourites to complete the job against Real Madrid in Wednesday's semi-final second leg. And whoever goes through to next month's final in Istanbul, I can't see either AC Milan or Inter Milan being a match for them.
City were exceptional in the first leg at the Santiago Bernabeu. They took the fight to the holders in their own back yard and controlled large parts of the game. Wednesday night at the Etihad is going to be special – it's not about revenge for last season's gut-wrenching semi-final defeat in Madrid, I just think this is going to be City's year.
Guardiola has dominated the Premier League since he arrived in English football in 2016, and he has suffered some exotic ways to get knocked out of the Champions League with City. First City scored five in the first leg but still slipped to defeat on away goals in Monaco six years ago.
Then came those Liverpool and Tottenham defeats, and in lockdown City lost 3-1 in the quarter-finals against Lyon on neutral ground in Lisbon behind closed doors in 2019 before the narrow defeat by Chelsea in the final, before a limited crowd, two years ago. At home, City are so strong – and don't fall for the untrue rhetoric that the Etihad lacks atmosphere.
In their title shoot-out with Arsenal last month, the place was absolutely rocking. Madrid managed to keep Erling Haaland relatively quiet in the first leg, but City's quality runs through the whole team like the arteries of your heart.
If Haaland doesn't get you, Kevin de Bruyne will – and what a fantastic hit the Belgian produced for the equaliser last Tuesday night. Rodri's interceptions and positional sense were top-class, and although he doesn't always get the headlines, he's the gel that holds the team together.
All the flair – Jack Grealish, Bernardo Silva, Riyad Mahrez, De Bruyne – would not have as much impact without Rodri making the machine's wheels turn, much as Fernandinho used to be City's beating heart in midfield. There is still a lot of jealousy about City's spending power and, no, the squad Guardiola has put together didn't come cheap.
But you still have to put the puzzle together to make a successful team, and Chelsea have shown this season that it's possible to spend £600 million and have nothing to show for it. We have an irrational dislike of winners in this country, and when the best teams or players slip up, they are labelled 'bottlers' or peppered with cheap insults.
So let's put it out there about Manchester City: I think they will beat Real Madrid on Wednesday, win the Champions League, win the Treble and go down as one of the greatest teams of all time in English football. And what's not to like about that?
