Pep Guardiola had one message from the start of the season: nobody can predict what will happen after the World Cup.
With a six-week break for the World Cup for the first time, City's entire calendar for two years has been shifted around, after a two-year disruption for the 2020 break in the season due to the pandemic. Guardiola has managed to navigate those challenges relatively successfully (as back-to-back Premier League titles attest), although even he admitted he couldn't predict what would happen in 2023.
As well as possessing doubts about his team's readiness to compete for a third successive title, Guardiola will have had to rely on all of his knowledge to get City to a position where they are still fighting for titles by the March international break.
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Last week, he set City the challenge of winning three in a row to stay within touching distance of Arsenal in the Premier League, book a Champions League quarter-final place, and progress to the FA Cup last four. 14 goals, none conceded, and three wins is better than the manager will have hoped for.
And looking at the bigger picture, City are doing what Guardiola has wanted since the autumn, when he admitted his side will have to win the title in a different way this season - as they couldn't rely on a lengthy winning run around October, November and December that have characterised recent successful campaigns. If they were going to do that, it would have to come fairly quickly after the Christmas resumption of the season.
Since the restart, a number of players - as well as Guardiola - expressed the need to put one of those winning runs together, but they kept taking two steps forward and one back. A frustrating home draw with Everton, the Carabao Cup defeat at Southampton and derby defeat against Manchester United. A 1-0 reverse at Tottenham, and even the draw at Nottingham Forest. All examples of City being below-par in at least one area of the pitch and killing any momentum.
That Spurs result appeared to be a turning point, however, with the Forest draw nothing to do with the performance level and application, and the subsequent draw at RB Leipzig a good result considering the 7-0 second leg win. And since losing at Tottenham, City have embarked on their longest unbeaten run since the start of the season: ten games, eight wins, 31 goals scored, five against and five clean sheets.
The six wins in a row matches the six between September and October as their longest of the campaign, and that run that Guardiola and his senior players keep referencing feels like it has finally arrived. If anything, the international break has put a halt in the rhythm, so the challenge will be to pick it back up as quickly as possible.
The visit of Liverpool should be more than enough motivation after a fortnight off, as should the double-header with Bayern Munich and a favourable FA Cup semi-final against Sheffield United within the first six games back. Guardiola has praised the collective attitude of his players in the last week, and they will need that supportive mentality to go again against Liverpool and beyond.
The fact that they have shown they are ready to put one of those familiar runs together can give Guardiola confidence they can keep it going when they meet back up.
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