A row between unlikely sparring partners. This week, Mali announced it was severing ties with Ukraine, after accusing Kyiv of having a hand in a devastating ambush in the West African country’s northern Kidal region in late July that saw dozens of Malian soldiers killed.
Separatist Tuareg rebels who masterminded the attack claimed they had killed Malian soldiers and Russian Wagner fighters. Analysts have said if those claims are true, it might be the worst defeat for the mercenary group since it first deployed in 2021 to help military government-led Mali fight a swarm of armed groups operating across the country.
The diplomatic spat started last week after a spokesperson for Ukraine’s military spy agency revealed cryptically that the rebels had the “necessary information” to execute the July attack. Though he fell short of announcing Kyiv’s full complicity, his remarks triggered fears that the Russia-Ukraine war could be spilling over into African territory.
Colonel Abdoulaye Maiga, Mali’s government spokesperson, said on Sunday that his country was “deeply shocked” to hear the claims. Ukraine had “violated Malian sovereignty” by aiding the “cowardly, treacherous, and barbaric attack”, he added.
Kyiv has rushed to backtrack the initial boast. In a statement on Monday, the country’s foreign ministry called Bamako’s decision to cut ties “hasty”. Mali took action “without conducting a thorough study of the facts and circumstances of the incident … and without providing any evidence of Ukraine’s involvement in the said event”, the statement read.
That denouncement does not appear to have calmed tensions.
Niger, Mali’s tight ally and neighbour, cut off relations with Kyiv on Tuesday, in a show of support. Senegal, too, summoned the Ukrainian ambassador Yurii Pyvovarov over the weekend and accused him of posting a now-deleted video in support of the attack.
Russia, meanwhile, has accused Ukraine of “pandering to terror groups” and opening “a second front in Africa” amid the continuing war between the two countries.
“It was one of the most significant attacks against Russian paramilitary forces on the African continent,” Ryan Cummings, founder of security monitoring company Signal Risk, told Al Jazeera. “At least two Russian commanders that had previously led paramilitary operations in Ukraine were also killed in these attacks.”
Moscow’s accusations may not be too far off the mark, according to analysts.
Devastating counterattack
The ambush started as an offensive by the Malian military and Russian forces, security experts said, but by the end, it was a bloodbath for the Malian side. Some 47 Malian soldiers and 84 Russian mercenaries were killed, according to the rebels. Mali’s government did not give figures, but said it suffered “significant losses” and lost a helicopter.
Ethnic Tuareg have for decades accused Bamako of marginalisation and waged separatist rebellions in the country’s north in attempts to create an independent Azawad region.
In a 2012 uprising, the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) seized Kidal, Gao, and Timbuktu – cities in the north – forcing the government to turn to former colonial power France, which deployed thousands of soldiers in support. The United Nations also deployed the 11,000-strong MINUSMA peacekeeping force to support the military as it fought not just the separatists, but several other armed groups linked to al-Qaeda and ISIL (ISIS) and operating in the desert north.
A fragile UN-brokered 2015 peace agreement with some Tuareg factions largely held until 2023, when Mali’s military rulers – who seized power in a 2020 coup – broke ties with France and booted out its soldiers. It also kicked out the MINUSMA force, accusing both units of failing to halt insecurity. Russian boots were allegedly already on the ground as French troops withdrew.
Malian forces then renewed hostilities with the Tuareg, which it blamed for “terrorist acts” amid allegations that they partnered with ideologically motivated armed groups. As French and UN bases grew vacant, the military and the rebels both scrambled to seize control, resulting in intense clashes. By November, Malian forces, now working alongside Russian fighters, retook Kidal from the rebels, amid devastating attacks that rights groups say caused many civilian deaths.
Since then, Malian-Russian units have been advancing further into more remote rebel-held areas in offensives. By mid-July, they had pushed deep into Tuareg territory close to the Malian border with Algeria, said analyst Liam Karr of the United States-based Critical Threats Project (CTP), which monitors violent conflict. But the government units lacked the manpower to hold those areas, he added.
On July 25, fighters of the Permanent Strategic Framework for Peace, Security and Development (CSP-PSD), the Tuareg coalition, attacked a patrolling Russian-Malian convoy in the Tinzaouatene district. The fighters had tactically withdrawn for days, and then launched a counterattack amid a sandstorm, killing several soldiers.
“The Tuaregs ambushed this convoy, grounded them, and forced them to retreat into JNIM territory [Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal-Muslimin],” said Karr, referencing an al-Qaeda-linked group. The ensuing battle lasted for two days, during which most of the casualties on the Malian-Russian side happened, he said.
“Our forces decisively obliterated these enemy columns,” a CSP-PSD spokesperson said. The group claimed it took Malian and Russian prisoners, downed a helicopter, and seized “large amounts” of equipment and weapons. Seven of its fighters were killed and 12 wounded, it added.
The rebels and JNIM have both claimed credit for the attack. That the ambush included an al-Qaeda-linked group is probably why Ukraine has backtracked on its claim, some analysts said.
Kyiv’s political miscalculation
Experts said the details of exactly how Ukraine might have provided assistance to the Malian rebels are sketchy.
Some security analysts with inside knowledge of the attacks said Ukrainian forces could have provided limited training to Tuareg fighters outside of Mali, teaching them how to operate drones, drop IEDs, and launch mortar attacks.
Analyst Cummings told Al Jazeera there is limited evidence to suggest that Kyiv had any boots on the ground, however, and Ukraine’s claims of backing the Tuareg were likely exaggerated.
“There is certainly no definitive evidence to suggest that Ukraine was involved specifically … I think this was an opportunity to kind of show that Ukraine can target Russian interests not only within the conflict zones where these two countries are engaged, but also in Africa, where Russia is increasingly placing a premium in terms of its diplomatic and political engagement.” Ukraine’s involvement was likely “overblown,” he added.
Andriy Yusov, the Ukrainian spokesperson whose statement started the diplomatic incident, was speaking on Ukrainian television when he let loose about Kyiv’s possible involvement. “That the rebels received the necessary data to successfully carry out an operation against Russian war criminals has been observed by the entire world. Of course, we will not disclose details. More information to come,” Yusov boasted.
But with al-Qaeda’s involvement, that seems to have backfired, as Ukraine could now be seen to back armed groups with ideological affiliations, experts said.
It’s a setback for Kyiv, which is looking to garner support from African countries and counter Russian influence. Last week, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba embarked on his fourth Africa tour in two years, making stops in Malawi, Zambia and Mauritius, even as the Malians cut ties, and Senegal summoned the Ukrainian ambassador to West Africa on the statement.
“It looks like the Ukrainian government was not aware of the political permutations of that attack,” Cummings said.
Karr said the initial claims by Yusov, which hinted at significant Ukrainian help for the Tuareg, were undercut by the fact that the fighters did not particularly need Kyiv’s help as they already had significant weaponry and manpower.
“I’m not convinced there’s a tonne of Ukraine help in there,” he said. “This [ambush] isn’t even new to the Malian theatre, these are not new capabilities for the [Tuareg] group at all.”
A proxy war in Africa?
Russian forces have reportedly also been targeted by Ukrainian agents in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Sudan where they also operate, although analysts said evidence is scant.
“I’ve heard rumours of Ukrainian pilots against Russian groups, but we cannot discount the fact that these may be private groups that are not related to the government,” Cummings said.
The regional bloc, the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS), which is in the middle of a spat of its own with the military governments of Mali, Niger, and neighbouring Burkina Faso, has denounced foreign intervention in the region amid the fight.
But fears that West Africa could turn into a proxy war location for Russia and Ukraine are likely unfounded, experts said, as Kyiv needs resources to fight off the continuing Russian invasion.
“I think this is likely a one-off event,” Karr said, one that would likely not make much of a ripple on the international scene. “Ukraine did not have strong ties [in the Sahel], to begin with, and Ukraine’s [Western] allies also don’t have that much of a presence in the region at the moment,” he said, referencing the US’s reduced reach in Africa at a time that China and Russia are gaining more friends. “This is a zero times zero equals zero situation.”
However, Cummings warned, there could be another type of proxy warfare, one that has powered the Russia-Ukraine war so far: disinformation.
“It could be a war of rhetoric,” he said. “Russia’s war on Ukraine is very much a war of disinformation and one cannot discount the fact that Ukraine might attempt to counter Russian disinformation [in Africa] in the same manner.”
As for Mali, the row is not likely to shake its relations with Russian forces, as Bamako has increasingly relied on Russia politically, analysts said, but the recent defeat is likely to force the government to rethink its strategy as it seeks to wrest back the rebel north.
