One month can swing an entire season in the NFL. When one loss snowballs into two, three or even four in a row, it can be near impossible to make up for that rough stretch in the standings come January. The same goes for stringing together a few surprise wins, which can prove to be the difference between picking in the top 10 and playing on Wild Card Weekend.
The 2022 Lions are a perfect example of the power of that pendulum swing. They went 0–4 in October last season to fall to 1–6. Detroit then finished the season by winning eight of its final 10 games yet still missed out on the postseason because of the hole the team was in after that winless month. That stretch included a three-point loss to the Seahawks, who then held the head-to-head tiebreaker that gave them the final playoff spot in the NFC, and a four-point loss to the Dolphins in a game the Lions led by 14 at one point. Brutal.
Detroit is just one example of the impact a pivotal month can have over the course of a 17-game schedule. With that premise in mind, let’s take a look at 10 teams, five in the AFC and five in the NFC, that have potential make-or-break months on the schedule.
(*Denotes international or prime-time game.)
AFC
Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today Sports
Jacksonville Jaguars — October
Oct. 1 vs. Falcons*
Oct. 8 vs. Bills*
Oct. 15 vs. Colts
Oct. 19 @ Saints*
Oct. 29 @ Steelers
For a first-place schedule, Jacksonville’s 2023 slate isn’t particularly daunting. Sure, there are dates against the Chiefs, 49ers and Bengals spread out across the season but all three will be played at TIAA Bank Field. In October, however, the Jaguars only have one true home game; the other four will be played on the road or overseas. Jacksonville has back-to-back games in London to start the month. The Falcons are no easy out and a neutral site bout with the Bills might be the toughest game of the year.
The Jaguars fly back across the pond to take on the Colts at home the following week. Though this is their easiest matchup in October, rookie Anthony Richardson is a wild card under center and if he starts Week 1 he’ll have already seen this defense once. After that, head coach Doug Pederson’s team has a short week before playing the Saints on Thursday Night Football at the Superdome, where Jacksonville is 0–3 all-time. The fun continues on the road in Pittsburgh the following Sunday, where one of the better defenses in the league awaits Trevor Lawrence. As the AFC South favorites, the Jaguars’ expectations are justifiably higher than repeating atop a weak division. And even though Buffalo is the only 2022 playoff team on the schedule in October, this stretch should show a lot about just where Jacksonville’s standing is in the league at large.
Cleveland Browns — October
Oct. 1 vs. Ravens
Oct. 15 vs. 49ers
Oct. 22 @ Colts
Oct. 29 @ Seahawks
It’s put up or shut up time in Cleveland. The Browns are all in on Deshaun Watson, who performed poorly when he returned from suspension last December, plus they play in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL in a cutthroat conference. These factors make this particular stretch in October — which includes a Week 5 bye — so pivotal.
A home bout against Baltimore kicks off a month that features three 2022 playoff opponents in four games. That will also be Cleveland’s third game against a division foe after facing Cincinnati and Pittsburgh the first two weeks. An 0–3 start in AFC North play would be extremely difficult to come back from. Next, the Browns host the 49ers, which might be the hardest home game on their schedule. They close out October with back-to-back road games after playing four of their first five at home. The Colts should be a relatively easy out but the trip to Seattle will be tough, especially for a team that went 3–6 on the road last season. The back half of the schedule eases up for Cleveland but surviving this month will be important for its position in the division.
Pittsburgh Steelers — December
Dec. 3 vs. Cardinals
Dec. 7 vs. Patriots*
Dec. 17 @ Colts
Dec. 23 vs. Bengals
Dec. 31 @ Seahawks
Mark Konezny / USA TODAY Sports
Had Pittsburgh not gotten off to a 3–7 start in 2022, a playoff berth would’ve been well within reach. The Steelers went on to win six of their final seven games to salvage a winning season. Another strong end to the year will be necessary once again this winter the way their schedule is set up. Despite their difficult division, they enjoy one of the easier draws in the NFL. But every win counts in a conference in which 10 or more teams are realistically competing for seven playoff spots.
On paper, there are two relatively easy opponents for Pittsburgh in December: Arizona and Indianapolis. However, seeing both teams late in the year could spell trouble as Kyler Murray may be back under center for the Cardinals and Richardson, the Colts first-year quarterback, might have double-digit starts under his belt by then. The Steelers will face the Patriots at home on Thursday Night Football, which means they’ll be up against head coach Bill Belichick’s vaunted defense on short rest. Pittsburgh also hosts the back-to-back division champion Bengals and then heads to the Pacific Northwest to take on the Seahawks on New Year’s Eve to close out the month. Head coach Mike Tomlin’s team has an upward hill to climb late in the year to secure a postseason spot.
Denver Broncos — December
Dec. 3 @ Texans
Dec. 10 @ Chargers
Dec. 17 @ Lions
Dec. 24 vs. Patriots*
Dec. 31 vs. Chargers
Things can’t get much worse in Denver after last year’s disaster. But with head coach Sean Payton coaxed out of retirement to lead a revamped roster, the hope in the Mile High City is that this team is, well, miles ahead of where it was a season ago. The Broncos have more difficult stretches on their schedule than December — like this four-game window: Chiefs, Packers, Chiefs, Bills — but this portion is particularly crucial. Four of their five games are against AFC teams, including the Chargers twice, and the month begins with a season-long, three-game road trip. (Denver went 1–8 in away games in 2022, the worst mark in the league.)
After the trip to Houston, the difficulty ramps up immensely on the road in Los Angeles and Detroit. The Chargers don’t have a huge home-field advantage, but they do have the upper hand talent-wise and the Lions are projected to take a massive leap forward this season. A visit from the Patriots will be a coaching duel between Belichick and Payton and doubles as a meeting between two wild-card hopefuls. Denver gets L.A. at home on New Year’s Eve to close out December. If the Broncos are to leave the month with a winning record, they must defend home field.
New England Patriots — December
Dec. 3 vs. Chargers
Dec. 7 @ Steelers*
Dec. 18 vs. Chiefs*
Dec. 24 @ Broncos*
Dec. 31 @ Bills
New England has never missed the postseason in consecutive seasons under Belichick but that streak could be in jeopardy given the state of the division in 2022. The Patriots are up against one of the hardest schedules in the league and perhaps their toughest stretch is in December. The five-game slate is against exclusively AFC teams, three of which made the playoffs last year.
Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert are both headed to Foxborough and the Chiefs game will be played in front of a Monday Night Football audience. New England is all over primetime that month with a Thursday Night Football game in Pittsburgh the week before the Kansas City game and a Sunday evening spot in Denver on Christmas Eve the following week. A New Year’s Eve battle with the Bills in Buffalo is the conclusion to that gauntlet of games — the Bills have won six of the last seven in the series. If the Patriots can somehow keep their head above water they should still be in the hunt heading into Week 18, but that’s quite the tall task.
NFC
Cary Edmondson/USA TODAY Sports
Seattle Seahawks — December
Dec. 10 @ 49ers
Dec. 17 vs. Eagles
Dec. 24 @ Titans
Dec. 31 vs. Steelers
The Seahawks have a lengthy layoff before their return to Levi’s Stadium, where they lost in the regular season and in the playoffs to the 49ers last year. Seattle has back-to-back Thursday Night Football spots (Nov. 23 vs. San Francisco and Nov. 30 at Dallas) in the two weeks prior to its trip to the Bay. The two meetings between the top teams in the NFC West could ultimately decide the division and coach Pete Carroll will have a few extra days to scheme against Kyle Shanahan soon after their first matchup.
A visit from Philadelphia, the reigning NFC Champions, will be difficult, though at least there will be the support of the 12th Man at Lumen Field. The month wraps up with bouts against the Titans and Steelers, two teams led by two of the best coaches in the league in Mike Vrabel and Tomlin. The Seahawks also lost to both Tennessee and Pittsburgh in 2021. The home stretch ramps up substantially for Seattle, which plays four 2022 playoff teams over its final seven games (including the 49ers and Eagles in December) after facing just three across its first 10.
Carolina Panthers — December
Dec. 3 @ Buccaneers
Dec. 10 @ Saints
Dec. 17 vs. Falcons
Dec. 24 vs. Packers
Dec. 31 @ Jaguars
No. 1 pick Bryce Young will benefit from playing against one of the easiest schedules in the NFL as a rookie and he’ll have plenty of starts under his belt by December, when his Panthers embark on a critical five-game stretch. It begins in Tampa against the Buccaneers, a team Carolina split with last year, and then the season-long, three-game road trip wraps up the following week against the Saints, the preseason favorites to win the division. The Panthers face the Falcons, their third straight NFC South opponent, the following week back in Charlotte — they split the season series with Atlanta a year ago as well.
The Packers are in town on Christmas Eve for a game that could factor into the NFC wild card race. And on New Year’s Eve, Carolina heads to Jacksonville to take on Lawrence, who went first overall two years before Young. This stretch only includes two playoff teams from 2022 (Tampa Bay and Jacksonville), but the Panthers will see all three of their division foes in December and spend most of the month on the road.
Chicago Bears — November
Nov. 5 @ Saints
Nov. 9 vs. Panthers*
Nov. 19 @ Lions
Nov. 27 @ Vikings*
If the Bears are going to take the leap that some expect them to next season, proof of concept could arrive in November when the worst team in the NFL in 2022 will be in the national spotlight with a pair of primetime games. Chicago is in New Orleans to take on the Saints and then has a quick turnaround to Thursday Night Football at Soldier Field against the Panthers. There’s added intrigue here after the Bears dealt the No. 1 pick to Carolina, which was used to draft Young, and received D.J. Moore and a package of picks in return to build around Justin Fields.
Chicago wraps up the month with two road games against Detroit and Minnesota, both division foes that it was swept by last year. The Lions are the preseason pick to win the NFC North while the Vikings are fresh off a 13-win campaign and a division title. The Minnesota game will be on Monday Night Football at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Bears are up against a relatively light schedule in 2023; November presents some opportunities to score some road wins and take a few games off division opponents.
Green Bay Packers — September
Sep. 10 @ Bears
Sep. 17 @ Falcons
Sep. 24 vs. Saints
Sep. 28 vs. Lions*
Jordan Love will make his second career start in the season opener. Green Bay’s succession plan for Aaron Rodgers has played sparingly across three seasons and how he fares early in the year will be a good indication of what can be expected from this team. The Packers don’t face a particularly daunting schedule in September — the winter months bring more challenging opponents — but a strong start could set them up to return to the top of the division while a rocky one could spell trouble.
Green Bay is in Chicago for Week 1 against a division opponent that Love’s predecessor infamously owned. Next up is a trip to Atlanta to take on an improved Falcons team. Love will make his first start at Lambeau Field in Week 3 against the Saints, who are consistently among the NFL’s sack leaders. Then the Packers have a short week before they host the Lions on Thursday Night Football. It’s a manageable slate, but no cakewalk. All in all, September holds two matchups with fellow NFC North teams, two contests on the road, a game against a top-10 defense (New Orleans) and one versus a top-10 offense (Detroit).
Washington Commanders — November
Nov. 5 @ Patriots
Nov. 12 @ Seahawks
Nov. 19 vs. Giants
Nov. 23 @ Cowboys*
Washington was not far off from earning a playoff berth last season, even as it brought up the rear in the NFC East. Remember: The only two teams that beat the Eagles with Jalen Hurts were the Commanders and Chiefs. However, Washington’s 2023 schedule is a gauntlet and the team will be trotting out a raw quarterback in Sam Howell, who only made one start as a rookie. If the defense holds its own and new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy helps Howell along, there’s a chance the Commanders remain in the hunt until late in the year. The likelihood of that scenario hinges largely on how they make out in November.
There are perhaps more difficult stretches — Washington gets the Bills and Eagles in back-to-back weeks early in the year — but this month holds three road games and two division bouts. The Patriots are no easy out in Foxborough and the same goes for the Seahawks in Seattle. The Commanders lost to the Giants at home last year and played them to a draw on the road; they’ll have already met at MetLife earlier in the season when this game is played. The Thanksgiving game against the Cowboys is the most trying of November, though Washington won convincingly the last time the two teams matched up in Week 18.
