French President Emmanuel Macron may find himself without a ruling majority during his second term and deprived of the ability to push through his economic reform agenda after Sunday’s first round of parliamentary elections saw his ruling coalition tied with a new left-wing alliance.
A strong showing by the left-wing Nupes coalition and gains by the far right made it likely that Macron's Ensemble ("Together") alliance could lose dozens of National Assembly seats in the second round of voting next Sunday. Here are three possible outcomes.
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Absolute majority
Macron's top lieutenants have vowed to campaign hard against the "extremist" pledges of the Nupes leader, the veteran leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, hoping their increasingly strident warnings will persuade voters to hand them a majority of at least 289 seats in the National Assembly.
If that happens, Macron will have free rein to drive through his manifesto, which includes a contested pension reform. Even so, the president is unlikely to find it as easy to push legislation through parliament as during his first mandate.
His former prime minister, Edouard Philippe, who is widely believed to harbour presidential ambitions, has created his own party, officially part of Macron's majority, and is likely to want a say on legislation, pushing for more conservative policies on pensions and public deficits, for instance.
With a tight majority, even a small contingent of lawmakers could help make Philippe a kingmaker during Maron's second term.
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Hung parliament
Projections made after Sunday’s first round of voting suggest Macron's coalition is likely to remain the biggest force in the next National Assembly – but could fail to reach the 289-mark required to command a majority of seats.
That would be an unusual event under the Fifth Republic and there is no institutional rule to follow to build a coalition, as is the case in countries like Belgium or the Netherlands.
Macron would probably have to reach out to other parties, most likely the conservative Les Republicains (LR), to form a coalition. That would almost certainly involve offering prominent cabinet roles to LR rivals and manifesto adjustments in return for parliament support.
He could also try to poach lawmakers individually and offer sweeteners to encourage them to break ranks with their party.
Failing that, Macron could be forced to negotiate a majority bill by bill, negotiating the support of the conservatives for his economic reforms for example, while attempting to win over centre-left support for some social reforms.
That would slow down the pace of reforms and might lead to political deadlock in a country where consensus-building and coalition work is not engrained in the political culture.
But the president would still have a few tricks up his sleeve. He could still, at any time, call for a new snap election, for instance. Or use article 49.3 of the constitution that threatens a new election if a bill is not approved.
Polls currently show a hung parliament to be the most likely outcome.
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Cohabitation
A third scenario – which pollsters say is by far the least likely – would see Mélenchon’s Nupes alliance defy the polls to win a surprise majority in the National Assembly.
Under the French constitution, Macron must name a prime minister who has the support of the lower house, meaning a "cohabitation" with a left-wing government would necessarily follow.
Macron is not compelled to pick the person put forward by the majority for premier. However, should he refuse to name Mélenchon, a power struggle would almost certainly ensue with parliament, with the new majority likely to reject any other candidate put forward by Macron.
Cohabitation would leave Macron with few levers of power in his hands and upend his reform agenda. The president would retain the lead on foreign policy, negotiate international treaties, but cede most day-to-day policy-making to the government.
There have been few previous periods of cohabitation in post-war France. They typically led to institutional tension between the president and prime minister, but were surprisingly popular with the electorate.
(FRANCE 24 with REUTERS)
