THE CONSERVATIVES are heading for an electoral wipeout similar to the scale of their defeat in 1997 by Labour, a major new poll has predicted.
A YouGov survey of 14,000 people has predicted the result of every seat at the next General Election, which is likely to be held in the second half of 2024.
Such a large sample size means YouGov was able to break down the results by individual constituencies.
It suggests that the Tories will retain just 169 seats while Labour would pick up 385 – giving Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.
The poll also predicted that the SNP would lose almost half of their seats to Labour, retaining just 25.
Starmer's party were predicted to pick up a number of seats in Scotland across the Central Belt while results suggested the Scottish Tories would return four seats.
It was particularly bad reading for the Tories however, who are predicted to lose every Red Wall seat won from Labour by Boris Johnson in 2018, while a number of Cabinet ministers – including Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt and Grant Shapps are predicted to lose their seats.
Writing for The Telegraph, Lord David Frost said the poll’s findings were “stunningly awful” and that the party was facing “a 1997-style wipeout – if we are lucky”.
He said a combination of tactical voting and any decision by Nigel Farage to return to frontline politics could leave the Tories facing an “extinction event”.
The Tory peer also claimed the only way the party could avoid defeat was “to be as tough as it takes on immigration, reverse the debilitating increases in tax, end the renewables tax on energy costs – and much more”.
Sir John Major lost 178 seats in 1997, when Tony Blair (above) won 418, giving him a majority of 179 at the start of 13 years of a Labour government.
Elsewhere, former Number 10 pollster James Johnson told The Telegraph the figures suggested any possible path to victory for the Tories had “all but vanished”.
The result would be the biggest collapse in support for a governing party since 1906, with an 11.5% swing to Labour.
