IF the new poll showing support for independence at 54% had been conducted by one of the polling firms that typically show better results for Yes, such as Ipsos or FindOutNow, it would have looked encouraging but not out of the ordinary.
But given that it's a Norstat poll, it's an absolute bolt from the blue, and a possible indication of a major breakthrough.
Every previous independence poll conducted by Norstat or its predecessor firm Panelbase since the spring of 2021 has shown Yes in a range between 46% and 52%, with No having the lead on the vast majority of occasions.
The last time a Norstat or Panelbase poll showed Yes support as high as it is now was during the extraordinary period between the summer of 2020 and early 2021, when the Covid crisis was at its peak, and when every single opinion poll published by every single polling firm showed a pro-independence majority.
Could the new poll herald a similar period of Yes dominance? That's not impossible, but it's important to be cautious because as things stand there is only very limited supporting evidence for the trend shown by Norstat.
The Survation poll conducted during the first half of November showed a modest boost in support for independence, but not enough to push Yes into the lead. The next two or three polls will be crucial.
If they do not replicate the Norstat trend, the likelihood will be that Norstat's results were just a freakish outlier that do not really mean anything. But if all of those polls show Yes above 50%, the independence movement will have good reason to think it is firmly back in business.
If that happens, the explanation may be that many people who voted Labour at the General Election have given up on Keir Starmer (above) delivering the change he promised.
The problem for the Unionist camp is that everyone knows the only possible alternatives to a Labour government in London would be extremely right-wing – either a return to Tory rule under Kemi Badenoch, or the first-ever Reform UK government under Nigel Farage.
Both of those possibilities would be horrifying to most left-leaning or even centrist voters in Scotland, so essentially all the Unionist eggs are in a single Labour basket.
If Starmer fails to impress, voters are bound to work out by a process of elimination that independence is the sole option remaining for a brighter future under a progressive government.
There certainly seems to be a correlation in the Norstat poll between the increase in support for independence and the loss of confidence in Labour.
The Yes vote has increased by four percentage points since the last Norstat poll just over a month ago, while Labour's support on the Holyrood list ballot has decreased by exactly the same amount over the same period.
On the constituency ballot, the drop for Labour is a smaller two points, and in fact they remain comfortably in second place ahead of the Tories on constituency voting intentions.
The snag for Anas Sarwar (above), though, is that the huge sixteen-point SNP constituency lead means that John Swinney's party is suddenly in line to win a big majority of constituency seats, leaving other parties mostly dependent on list seats. And it's on the list ballot where Labour now have the Tories breathing down their necks.
If the Norstat numbers are corroborated by future polls, there will be a dramatic shift in mindset about the 2026 Holyrood election.
Until very recently, the consensus among commentators was that Scotland was on course for a change of government and that the Unionists would soon be back in charge under Labour leadership. Now there may be question marks over whether Labour can even expect to overtake the Tories to become the main opposition to an ongoing SNP government.
It has also been assumed that the Reform UK bandwagon essentially ended any hopes of retaining the pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament.
Perhaps the most important thing of all about the Norstat poll is that, for the first time, it demonstrates a scenario in which the Reform surge could still occur but with the Yes majority at Holyrood left intact.
