China is unlikely to see a major Covid outbreak anytime soon, a disease control official said, amid a heightened focus on the risk of reinfection and a possible spike in cases during the Labor Day holiday.
There has been a slight uptick in Covid cases in some areas, said He Qinghua, an official with the National Administration of Disease Prevention and Control, at a press briefing Wednesday. But surveillance data showed the number of infections nationwide remained “low,” He said, adding that the number recorded in early April was “the lowest level since December.”
A sudden wave of infections swept across China after it abruptly ended its “zero-Covid” policy in early December. After that began waning in January, CDC chief epidemiologist Wu Zunyou said that about 80% of China’s 1.4 billion people had been infected with the virus.
Discussions about Covid reinfection have heated up on Chinese social media after several users who attended a Shanghai auto show posted that they had contracted the virus again, which was followed by more posts about recent reinfections. There are also fears of a surge in cases during the five-day Labor Day holiday starting Saturday, when a travel boom is expected.
Liu Ming, one of the people infected after attending the auto show, told Caixin he felt extremely sick this time but was asymptomatic when first infected in December. Liu has been jabbed with a Covid vaccine three times.
Lin Jing also posted on social media about being reinfected. She received comments from people who had recovered from Covid and were concerned that they might get seriously ill if they were infected again, Lin said.
Jin Dong-Yan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong, told Caixin that there is no need for healthy people to worry much about a second wave, but vulnerable groups such as the elderly do have a higher risk of secondary infection.
“It usually takes six months for healthy people to get reinfected, but for older people it usually (takes only) three months,” Jin said, calling on authorities to prepare more resources, including Covid drugs and vaccines, for high-risk groups. He also pointed out the need for timely antigen testing in Covid-hit areas.
The latest data released by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) showed daily nucleic acid test-positive cases peaked at 6.94 million on Dec. 22 before dropping to around 2,700 on April 20. Given that some patients may not have taken Covid tests or reported their test results, the official case tally is likely an underestimate.
At a forum last week, Zhang Wenhong, director of the Infectious Diseases Department of Fudan University’s Huashan Hospital, recommended that vulnerable groups whose last vaccination was six months ago get a new jab to brace for secondary infection.
Zhang also said that an infection spike was possible if the coronavirus mutates and the variant succeeds in breaking the immune barrier formed during the previous wave.
China recently detected a new omicron subvariant, XBB.1.16, which is now spreading rapidly in parts of the world and has been designated as a “variant of interest” by the World Health Organization. The new strain is suspected of causing new symptoms of infection such as red and itchy eyes, especially in young patients. Data from China CDC showed the country had recorded 42 local cases of XBB.1.16 as of April 20.
Liu Ming and Lin Jing in this article are pseudonyms.
Contact reporter Wang Xintong (xintongwang@caixin.com) and editor Jonathan Breen (jonathanbreen@caixin.com)
Get our weekly free Must-Read newsletter.
