Heading home from Minnesota today, and with a bunch of your questions to answer …
From JH (@everydayliner): Based on John Mara’s comments, any chance there’s a rift between owners looking to squeeze out every $ they can and those who still believe there are lines (fan experience, kickoff rules) that shouldn’t be crossed?
In case you missed it, the other day, Giants owner John Mara was asked for his reaction to the Thursday Night Football flex being voted through, and that reaction was pretty sharp. “I’m disappointed,” Mara told NFL Network’s Judy Battista, “but certainly not surprised.”
JH, Mara’s words reflected a hard truth—commissioner Roger Goodell came to Minneapolis this week with an agenda, and, come hell or high water, he was gonna check every box on it.
And Mara has been around long enough to know the outcome he’d get before arriving here.
As the Commanders looming sale hovered over the proceedings, there were two big voting items carried over from the March meeting that drew strong opposition from football folks, as well as the more established ownership groups. Common NFL thought held that the two items had been tabled then (when they lacked the votes to pass) and brought to the May summit because Goodell figured he’d face less resistance at the smaller, more owner-centric spring meeting.
Sure enough, Goodell got his votes. There was still opposition, and strong opposition in some corners, but the TNF measure passed by the minimum margin, 24–8, and the kickoff rule passed by not much more than that (26-5-1). In both cases, money tells the story. On TNF, getting the rule passed, one that has player health-and-safety questions and could screw the most avid fans, was about placating Amazon. On kickoff, it was about having change to point to with a concussion uptick on those plays and legal liability lingering.
I think if this meeting proved anything, it’s that the NFL is being run in a colder, more cutthroat manner than ever before, which makes sense as the league continues to add more tough, ruthless and cunning businessmen to its ownership ranks. And as such, the league is increasingly beholden to the places where the money is coming from (their broadcast partners) and where it can be taken away (the courts).
It wasn’t lost on anyone, by the way, that a smattering of legacy franchises and those owned by families that go back generations in the league (the Giants, Steelers, Bears, Raiders, Lions, Bengals, Packers and Jets were the no’s) voted against the TNF flex. Nor did it go unnoticed that three Super Bowl–winning head coaches (John Harbaugh, Bill Belichick, Sean Payton) backed the special teams coaches’ contention that the kickoff rules change wouldn’t effectively change anything, and could make the plays more dangerous.
It’s just that those voices don’t seem to matter nearly as much anymore, which is what Mara was getting at in how he addressed Battista’s question, and implicitly answering yours, too.
From Mike From Woburn (@MikeFromWoburn): When do they switch to flag football across the board?
Mike! It’s funny you say that, because I had a team executive say to me on his way out of the meeting Tuesday, “At some point, there’s only so much we can do. It’s always going to be a dangerous game.” And that’s the thing here—the kickoff rule comes off as a sort of PR measure because the league doesn’t have an effective answer. The kickoff is a dangerous play, and that probably won’t ever not be the case.
I do think more credence should’ve been given to the special teams coaches’ contention that the USFL kickoff is a better solution than the one the NFL rammed through this week. Mostly because those coaches would probably know a little better than Goodell would.
From Tyler Hergert (@TylerHergert): What happens first, an NFL franchise in London, a London Super Bowl or a London NFL draft?
Tyler, a London franchise, would be my guess. And the reason why probably isn’t what you’d guess—it’s the time zone.
The NFL wants its premier events in prime time. Generally, the Super Bowl kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET. That’s 11:30 p.m. London time, which really wouldn’t work. And the draft starts at 8 p.m. ET, which is 1 a.m. London time.
Now, could they make adjustments to accommodate a London Super Bowl or draft? Sure they could. In theory, they could kick off a London Super Bowl at 8:30 local time, which would be 3:30 ET and 12:30 PT. They could move the draft back to the weekend, allowing for it to be in prime time in London and through Saturday and Sunday in the States. Whether they would do that is a different question entirely.
My guess is they wouldn’t, or at least they wouldn’t until they have a team there that would benefit from such adjustments and offset the losses they might incur in viewership as a result of less-than-ideal American broadcast times. And we already know the NFL would like to have a tema in London, if only the logistics got a little easier.
From Patrick Sellers (@PLavarSellers): Are the @Commanders punting by playing Sam Howell at QB or do they truly believe he is the future? How much longer does Rob have in D.C.?
Patrick, I think this is partly belief in Howell, partly pushback on where the quarterback market has gone and how the Commanders have been caught in it the last couple of years.
Through Ron Rivera’s first three years in Washington, the team had relatively pricey mid-level vets at the position in Alex Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Carson Wentz. In each case, Washington wound up starting other, cheaper players at the position for long stretches of time—the three aforementioned QBs combined for just 14 starts over that three-year period. So absent a massive trade up in April, the question for the Commanders became whether to take another such swing on a Derek Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo, or go more economical to begin with.
Brad Mills/USA TODAY Sports
Right or wrong, their view was to take the latter route, believing that Howell is good enough to give them at least a player who is as good or better than they’ve had at quarterback recently (and that the money saved could be well spent elsewhere).
What the Commanders are saying in going in with Howell is, (a) that Ron Rivera & Co. are comfortable going with him in a critical year and, (b) having him and the extra cap space (spent to rework the offensive line and secondary, and re-sign Daron Payne) was worth more than just landing a Carr or Garoppolo alone. And on the first count, the Washington scouts had low first- and high-second-round grades on Howell going into his last season at North Carolina, plus the coaches and players loved the quarterback’s progress as a rookie.
And now, with new ownership coming in and so much on the line, we’ll see whether the current Commanders brass was right. (Ultimately, Josh Harris will be the judge of that.)
From Bohdahn Yurkiw (@bohdahn): Is Hunter Renfrow going to get traded after June 1st?
Bohdahn, I don’t know whether he will, but I think there’s a chance it will happen. The question is going to be which team has the interest, and the budget, both in cash and cap, to bring him in at this juncture of the offseason. Renfrow is due $11.55 million in cash this year and $11.88 million (nonguaranteed) in cash next year. Having to absorb that, for another team, would likely diminish the draft-pick package coming back.
Is someone desperate enough to pull the trigger on something like that? Maybe. I think it’ll take one of two things—either someone’s rookies don’t perform at the level expected or someone gets hurt—for the Raiders to get an offer enticing enough to pull the trigger.
But I wouldn’t rule that out.
From Formerly (HBO)Max (@trashp0ster): Any traction from the league to mandate grass playing surfaces?
Nope, and that, again, is a money thing. Grass is expensive to maintain in general. And when teams and stadiums cost as much as they do now, putting just 10 events in a venue every year isn’t going to cut it. So owners are increasingly scheduling every event possible for their stadiums, which makes it even harder to maintain a natural surface. What’s easy is to throw up your hands, throw down some turf and call it a day.
Carolina is the best example. There’s no way on god’s green earth that a team in Charlotte shouldn’t be playing on natural grass. But David Tepper paid $2.275 billion for that franchise, and he wasn’t going to get his money’s worth simply by turning on the lights as usual at Bank of America Stadium. So he launched a soccer franchise, worked to put more events in the stadium and, eventually, gave up on grass and went to turf.
Similarly, in Nashville, another temperate Southern city, grass is being torn up, and turf is being laid down, which will drop the number of teams playing home games on grass to 14.
The teams making the changes will tell you, over and over, that grass isn’t palatable where they are. But somehow, the Packers make it work in northern Wisconsin. They make it work by investing a ton of money and effort into its upkeep, and because, if we’re being honest, there’s no owner there to take home the cash that isn’t spent. If you want to take it to another level, you can look at what Real Madrid is doing in its overhauled stadium.
I’ve talked a lot on playing surfaces the last couple months. @nbsmallerbear pointed out to me how much European soccer teams invest in getting it right. Here, as part of Real Madrid’s new venue, is an incredible example of that.
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) October 28, 2022
(h/t @Marc_Bertrand) pic.twitter.com/4CmdHb9Eqf
That stadium is proof, by the way, that if NFL owners wanted to invest in playing surfaces at that level and do what’s best for the players, they could. And we’ll see that in the summer of 2026, when a bunch of turfed NFL stadiums bring in natural surfaces to accommodate the rules of international soccer for the World Cup.
So why not do it? You already know the answer to that.
From Pug Deterson (@PugDeterson): Which of the following radio personalities has the most knowledge of NFL-related issues? @LaVarArrington, @Brady_Quinn or @TheJonasKnox?
Pug, I think it’s their producer, Lee.
From JR (@JayRuhRoh): Josh Harris’s head of bball ops at the 76ers is credited with revolutionizing the modern NBA. The Commanders’ football decision-makers want to have a 2:1 run-to-pass approach on offense ... in 2023. So, who could be Josh Harris’s NFL version of Daryl Morey in Washington?
JR, I wouldn’t give up on Ron Rivera, Martin Mayhew and Marty Hurney quite yet.
But if you’re looking for outside-the-box football executives that I think could have that sort of impact on a franchise down the line, there are a few that are interesting. New Titans assistant GM Chad Brinker is one, for sure. He was a Division I player, but he also has a business background, having earned an MBA from Kellogg and worked in a hybrid role in Green Bay that encompassed scouting, cap, analytics and operations functions. Eagles assistant GM Alec Halaby is another one, though far more purely on the analytics side.
But, again, don’t give up on the current Washington staff quite yet. I think they’ve got a pretty decent team for you to root for, particularly if Sam Howell is as good as they think he is.
