The mailbag’s back! And you were too, with a lot of great questions this week …
From Chris (@taydyl33): Has Dan [Campbell] changed the culture in Detroit to where free agents actually want to play there?
Chris, of course he has. Here’s what players want: They want to be developed, they want to win, and they want to get rich, though not necessarily in that order. Generally, the top-end players go for top dollar. A contender such as the Detroit Lions might get a small discount on those types, but not a massive one. Where they can make hay is in the next levels down.
One category, in that regard, would be the player who hits free agency and doesn’t quite have the market he hoped for, so he goes and signs a one-year deal to try and hit it big the following year. That player, one looking to enhance his value, is always going to be enticed by the team that can put him on the biggest stages and the coaching staff that can maximize his performance the most, both by developing him and highlighting his skills.
Junfu Han/USA TODAY Network
Another category, along those lines, would be the third-contract player. This one’s already made his money, so while cashing in matters, it’s not the only thing. The Baltimore Ravens, for one, have been experts at shaking players such as this (Kevin Zeitler, Michael Pierce and Jadeveon Clowney are good examples from last year) out of the market.
So, yes, Chris, there’s some capital that Dan Campbell and GM Brad Holmes will be able to wheel and deal in free agency. And the fact that players, pretty much across the board, love playing for the staff there doesn’t hurt Detroit’s chances of luring people in those categories either.
From Henry Matthews (@henrymHuss26H): If the Chiefs do trade Sneed, what do you think is fair trade compensation the Chiefs could get back in return?
Henry, let’s start with this. The Kansas City Chiefs love L’Jarius Sneed. He’s grown from promising rookie, to top slot corner, to versatile inside-outside piece and matchup guy over the past four years. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo trusted him to the point where he matched him up with Tyreek Hill and Ja’Marr Chase. In a perfect world, Sneed wouldn’t be going anywhere.
But this is not a perfect world, and there are realities the Chiefs are dealing with that are different than where they were when Patrick Mahomes was still on his rookie contract. They’re working on a deal to keep Chris Jones, which they hope gets done in the coming days. They’ve got key players such as Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith eligible for extensions. A year from now, the team’s gold mine of 2022 draft defenders will be, too.
For those reasons, I think Sneed is probably headed elsewhere. My guess would be that it’ll be for a second-round pick, with the star corner getting somewhere north of $20 million per year. And, lucky for him, there are a few corner-needy contenders out there.
From Seth Nixon (@Sanixon123): Are the Chiefs interested in Calvin Ridley?
Fun idea, Seth, and I do think the Chiefs will add a receiver, probably in the draft. But my bet is that given all of the above, and that Ridley could get close to $20 million per year on a new contract, and that he turns 30 in December, I’m just not sure the fit is there.
Good news, though, is that the draft is loaded with receiver talent, and that’s beyond just the Marvin Harrison Jr.–Rome Odunze–Malik Nabers tier.
From JDins5 (@JDins_5): Do you think we’ll see a lot of competition between teams to move into the two to eight range with a handful wanting their favorite QB and another handful wanting their favorite WR? (Not to mention O line)
I think the Chicago Bears are taking USC’s Caleb Williams at No. 1. Then the Washington Commanders and New England Patriots will have a lot of action on their picks; after North Carolina’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels are picked, there will be a dropoff (something the teams that like Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy would obviously dispute).
I also believe that, while the likelihood is both stick and take quarterbacks, the Commanders and Patriots will listen to offers for those picks. Both have an absolute need at tackle. Dropping down to No. 6 (where the New York Giants are) or No. 8 (Atlanta Falcons) could still yield Notre Dame’s Joe Alt or Penn State’s Olu Fashanu for either team. And it could mean going into 2025 and ’26 with multiple first-round picks, and maybe an extra Day 2 pick in ’24 to boot.
We’re a ways off from decisions being final for the Patriots and Commanders. Remember, both those teams have new coaches, reconfigured front offices, and offensive coordinators who haven’t yet worked with their head coaches. So there’s a lot of work to be done.
From Charlie Sinclair (@cmsinclar): What are the odds MHJ [Marvin Harrison Jr.] slips past No. 4?
Charlie, I think right now, No. 4 would be my floor for Harrison.
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
We’re overcomplicating this, the same way we’re overcomplicating the quarterback discussion with Williams. Harrison has been, by a distance, the best receiver in college football in each of the last two years. He’s big and fast with rare ball skills, has a work ethic that’s become legendary in the Ohio State program and a strong character. He’s the best to come out at his position in more than a decade.
Odunze and Nabers are, in their own right, top-10-in-any-draft types of prospects. But Harrison is different. And so once the quarterback thing sorts itself out, after the first three picks, I think Arizona does the logical thing (and GM Monti Ossenfort does the wheelhouse thing for him, as he did last year with his first pick), in taking the athletic freak who’s the best player and also, by all accounts, a really good person.
From 🪄 (@Fiizop): What’s the chance the Falcons draft a QB
Fiiz, we’ll know more in about a week. I’d expect Atlanta to at least have its hat in the ring on Kirk Cousins. Remember, Raheem Morris was with Cousins for three years in Washington, and his offensive coordinator, Zac Robinson, worked under Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell for two years with the Los Angeles Rams. So, relationship? Check. Scheme? Check. Roster lacking just a quarterback? That’s probably a check, too.
If Cousins doesn’t land there, then I think quarterback comes into play in the draft, even if the Falcons trade for Justin Fields (which I do think would be in play). Atlanta’s roster is at a point now where they could burn multiple assets to try and get their quarterback question answered. The Falcons could send, say, a Day 2 pick to Chicago for Fields and then see what’s there at No. 8. Such a plan would give them flexibility to go forward with Fields, along with a prospect such as Alabama’s Dallas Turner or a quarterback such as McCarthy to come in to compete with Fields.
To me, either path (Cousins or Fields-and-we’ll-see) would be good for Atlanta.
From Andrew Thompson (@andrewthomp0211): Where do you think Saquon [Barkely] ends up going, based on the information you know @AlbertBreer?
Andrew, right now, it’s hard to say just because there is a glut of accomplished veteran backs out there on the market. Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard and D’Andre Swift are all free agents, which I think will work against the financial interests of the group.
But if you’re asking what would be ideal, I love the idea of Barkley landing with the Buffalo Bills, Derrick Henry going to Baltimore and Jacobs winding up with the Los Angeles Chargers. To me, Barkley could mirror and help limit the wear on young star James Cook, plus give new OC Joe Brady a way to manage down-and-distance situations more effectively, therefore requiring Josh Allen to play heroball less. Henry is a fit in Baltimore for very obvious reasons. And Jacobs, I think, could have a Frank Gore–like late-career renaissance playing for Jim Harbaugh.
Of course, the problem is that there is a salary cap, and I’m not sure those three can afford my idea here.
From Stuart Landsverk (@SJLandsverk): Chances Chicago keeps Justin Fields until training camp to make the market stronger?
Stuart, that’d be a gamble. The landscape, to me, is a little complicated for Chicago. I think the presence of Cousins and Baker Mayfield as looming free agents is clogging some things up for everyone else. So if you’re the Bears, it makes sense right now to be patient and see what happens with those two—absent a big offer from someone on Fields that hasn’t come yet.
You’ll remember that, last week, Bears GM Ryan Poles pledged to do right by Fields in moving him as soon as the franchise can. And I actually think, for now, by waiting, Poles is doing that. As I see it, trading Fields before the full breadth of suitors emerges from the rubble of the first wave of free agency would mean making a decision before the best scenario—not just for the team, but the player too—reveals itself.
Now, if there aren’t options there within a couple weeks? While I still think you find a way to deal Fields, I can understand the idea of waiting for another team out there to have an injury and get desperate. But it’d be risky; it’s not like that sort of situation arises every year, and you’d also lose the fifth-year option as a piece of the trade along the way.
Jamie Sabau/USA TODAY Sports
From Zach Fogelman (@FogelmanZach): Do you expect the Rams to be active next week in free agency along with trading?
Zach, the really amazing thing about what the Rams just pulled off is that they made the playoffs in their reset year—one through which they carried a staggering $75 million in dead cap money. (They weren’t the only ones, by the way. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers turned a similar trick.)
That allows Sean McVay and Les Snead to go into this offseason with a clean cap, a first-round pick, and room to be aggressive, just as they were in building two very different Super Bowl teams in 2018 and ’21. And the Rams do it with a nice young core of players who were supercharged by a trio of hits in last year’s draft, in third-rounders Kobie Turner and Byron Young and, of course, fifth-rounder Puka Nacua.
Los Angeles also has its holy trinity of 30-somethings (Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald) back for another year. So, sure, I’d expect a controlled aggression from the Rams. They believe they’ll be a contender in 2024, and rightfully so.
From Paul Andrew Esden Jr (@BoyGreen25): How big of a difference will Aaron Rodgers make in Jets free agent recruiting? Last year, he wasn’t officially acquired until late April. This time around, he’s there at the beginning of the offseason. Any targets we should keep an eye out for?
Paul, he’s an important one, in the same way I described Detroit’s situation earlier. For players looking for a one-year reputation bump, or older players trying to gravy train a ring, the New York Jets are, indeed, a destination.
The first potential target I’d keep an eye on would be Green Bay Packers left tackle David Bakhtiari, if he’s released in the coming days. It’d be tough for the Jets to rely on Bakhtiari without doing more at the position, based on his injury history, but adding the tackle to the mix would be a good place to start. And then I could certainly see one of the veteran backs we mentioned earlier, or someone like the Cincinnati Bengals’ Tyler Boyd, being added to the mix as well.
Here’s the thing: the Jets have to be all-in for the here and now, and so I think they’re going to jump through hoops to make things right around Rodgers for his return from the blown Achilles. That means attacking the tackle problem both in free agency and the draft, along with supplementing at the skill positions around young stars Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. Having Rodgers will certainly help New York recruit in those areas.
