We were waiting for the dominoes to start falling. Two big ones did Tuesday.
With Aaron Rodgers’s returning to the Packers and Russell Wilson’s heading to the Broncos, we’re starting to get some clarity on the NFL’s quarterback market. So I figured we’d kick off this week’s mailbag—we’ll get to your questions—with a quick FAQ section on what Tuesday’s news means for the NFL landscape.
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Are the Packers done with Jordan Love?
I don’t think so. But it’s always possible someone could come along, blow Brian Gutekunst away and pry the 2020 first-round pick from the Packers. More realistic is that Love, whose trade value isn’t great right now (I had execs estimate he’s worth a third- or a fourth-rounder a month ago), will stay on for the third year of his rookie contract. Maybe he’ll play really well in the preseason, and the Packers will get a better offer. Maybe he won’t.
Either way, the Packers protect themselves by keeping him. They give themselves a layer of depth. They also cover themselves against the possibility Rodgers retires after next season.
The real decision point comes after Love’s third year, when the team will need to make a call on his fully guaranteed option for 2024. At that point, if the decision is not to pick up the option, and it’s likely to be set above $20 million, then it’d be time to put him on the block.
How does this change how the Packers build?
Really, it doesn’t. The team restructured a bunch of contracts to make everyone fit under the cap last year, and it’ll presumably do that again with Rodgers, Davante Adams and a few others. The team has already restructured the deals of David Bakhtiari, Aaron Jones and Kenny Clark over the last few weeks, so that work’s underway.
It’s not dissimilar to how the Buccaneers built around Tom Brady, with voidable years tacked onto veterans’ contracts providing for space now and creating dead cap later. As I said the last couple of years with Tampa, if you’ve got a quarterback like that, it’s worth doing it to chase championships.
So why did the Denver deal for Russell Wilson materialize so quickly?
The Broncos, obviously, didn’t just push a button Tuesday and get it done. But Russell Wilson let those around him know Denver was at the top of his wish list, if the Seahawks were to trade him—he didn’t actively try to force a trade, content to let the situation play out. So the GMs, George Paton and John Schneider, had been working on this one for a while.
No one will admit it, but it’s not hard to ascertain that clarity in the Rodgers situation helped to push this one over the goal line.
Why was now the right time for Seattle to move Wilson?
There’s been a feeling for a while, going back to the last negotiation in 2019, that this would be Wilson’s last contract in Seattle. He had two years left on it, which really made this the optimal time to deal him, because it allowed for another team to acquire him without having to do a new contract right way. That boosted his trade value. This trade wasn’t unlike the Matthew Stafford trade in that way.
And if we’re being honest, Seattle’s roster is in need of a lot of work (Pete Carroll just had his worst season, at any level, in 27 years), and enough so that there had to be some doubt whether the team would be good enough to truly contend before Wilson’s contract was up.
This gives the Seahawks a chance to do a more deliberate build. They didn’t have a first-round pick (thanks to the Jamal Adams trade), and they do now; and they’ve got two coming in 2023, plus two second-round picks and a quarterback (Drew Lock) with plenty of physical ability who can start for them right away. And again, to look at this realistically, it has to be through the prism where Wilson wasn’t signing another contract there.
If you assume that and consider that Wilson had control over his destination, then this isn’t a bad way for Seattle to exit from the Wilson era.
What do Rodgers and Wilson get out of all this?
For the former, it’s pretty simple: everything Tom Brady got without having to switch teams. If you examine the last 13 months, you’ll see the Packers strayed from their more conservative model and, like we said, started building for the here and now. They were aggressive with in-season veteran opportunities out there (Randall Cobb, Whitney Mercilus, Jaylon Smith). And they had a loaded roster to begin with.
For the latter, it begins with a fresh start. There was a lot of history between Wilson and the Seattle brass, from his entry to the league to how the Legion of Boom guys saw him to the end of that era and the more recent tumult (that included extended contract negotiations that got very public). In Denver, all of that is erased. He enters the organization in a much different spot than he did Seattle and should have a golden opportunity to lead as a result.
And, yes, there’s the Brady thing, too. In fact, in both of these cases, I think, a year ago, you had quarterbacks who looked at how the Bucs built and won around Brady and said, Give me THAT. Now, both have it.
On to your mail …
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From Anthony Joseph (AJ) Gullotta II (@AJGullotta): Garoppolo updates please.
A.J., the timing of Jimmy Garoppolo’s surgery does complicate things a bit—he won’t be throwing again until late June/early July, and he’s in a contract year, meaning unless you’re willing to extend him, his value in a trade is what he can do for you this year. And if you’re a coach fighting for your job, can you trust that he’s going to be rolling once the season starts? It might be a tough bet for some teams to make.
That said, the top quarterbacks are off the board, just one quarterback suitor was taken out of the picture (Denver) and you could argue another (Seattle) might be in the mix now, if the right opportunity comes along. Which means an already lopsided supply-and-demand curve lost more supply than it gained demand. Which in turn means teams that are sellers in the market are in a nice position.
I said at the start of the offseason that the Commanders or Panthers made sense for Garoppolo. I’ll stand by that, given where those two are at the position.
From PanthersDrafter (@PanthersDrafter): Is there any update on the timeline for a resolution to the Deshaun Watson legal issues?
Yes, there is—a grand jury will hear his case Friday. I don’t want to minimize the seriousness of the case, of course. The accusations are serious ones and should be treated as such. But from a football standpoint, we could have resolution to a major part of this two days from now. The grand jury could return a decision on criminal charges at the hearing. If Watson is cleared, then that could accelerate settlement talks. I also think some teams would be willing to deal for him at that point and not wait for closure on the civil cases.
If the grand jury decides to proceed with a criminal case, then we may be talking about something else entirely.
Either way, Friday is an important day.
From Brian Murphy (@bmurph13): How serious are the Commanders about trading for a QB and do they get it done?
From 1BJL1906 (@Big_John_1906): If you’re Ron Rivera and team trade comp is worked out for Watson or (less likely) Wilson, what’s your pitch to the player for waiving their no trade clause to become the lead Commander?
Brian, they’re very serious. They were willing to send high-end picks in the next three drafts to land Wilson. They were ready to make a similar bid for Rodgers. They offered first- and third-round picks for Matthew Stafford last year and, I’m told, would’ve upped that offer to two first-rounders if the Lions had circled back with them before dealing him to the Rams. Their lack of a franchise quarterback is for no lack of trying.
And yes, I do think the Commanders have a lot to pitch a franchise quarterback. They have a legit No. 1 receiver in Terry McLaurin, a versatile tailback in Antonio Gibson, a really good tight end in Logan Thomas, a solid offensive line and the bones of what could become a dominant defense with a few tweaks. They also play in a huge East Coast market, and a big-name quarterback would have a shot to become synonymous with the new identity there.
The drawbacks are obvious. Through no fault of the football people, it’s been a weird couple of years for the franchise, and that actually could play into their next move.
My understanding is they won’t make a move on Deshaun Watson unless there’s full settlement of his legal situation, in large part because of what’s engulfed the team since the summer of 2020. That could wind up landing them on the outside looking in, since there’s at least a chance that another team will see resolution of the criminal charges as enough to deal off a king’s ransom to get him.
From John Green (@JGreen_PRsports): Was the big-name FA who approached the Bills on offense or defense?
John, I appreciate your asking the question—I do—and I hate to play this game, but I do know the name of the player and can’t share it. But trust me when I’m not exaggerating the “big name” part of it, nor do I think you can overplay the significance of the Bills being in the class of team that would receive such inquiries.
This is actually where New England used to be—and as we referenced in this week’s MAQB, the Patriots are slowly learning that veterans are no longer going to join them for short money, to gravy-train a ring or both. That Buffalo’s becoming that kind of team is a credit to the job Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane have done building the program there, first and foremost, and also, as I understand it, a reflection of the fact that guys want to play with Josh Allen (which … if you watched the AFC divisional playoffs, why wouldn’t you?).
It's a good time for the franchise.
From Michael Marino (@MichaelMarino37): Who goes #2 and #3 overall in the draft?
Michael, what’s fascinating is that it almost feels more certain that Aidan Hutchinson would go second if he slipped past No. 1, then anything appears to be with the first pick. And if I had to do a mock before Tuesday, I would’ve played it like this …
1) Jaguars: Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
2) Lions: Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
3) Texans: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
But the Jaguars’ tagging Cam Robinson at least got my attention—and made me wonder whether they’re locking in their left tackle with the thought they’ll go in another direction with the top pick (that direction would likely be taking Hutchinson). And while I think the likelihood is still that Hutchinson and two of the top tackles will constitute the top three picks, Hutchinson being gone at No. 2 might make things tough on a Detroit team that already has a lot invested in its offensive line.
So it looks like we might have some drama atop the draft, after three straight years in which, really, we knew who the top two picks would be well ahead of time.
From IN THE TRENCHES MANAGEMENT (@ITTManagement): Any big buzz about Cole Strange moving up the boards?
Trenches, do you rep him? Yes, I actually did hear the Chattanooga guard/center did well in meetings, and killed his workout in Indy, putting him with a group of interior linemen (Boston College’s Zion Johnson and Nebraska’s Cam Jurgens were two others) who did a lot to help themselves in Indy.
Great name, too.
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From Mark Hogan (@1SuperBowlDrive): Hey Albert. Will Kyler Murray's contract talks/ antics affect the Cardinals’ ability to lure in veteran free agents, particularly in free agency’s second wave?
Mark, Arizona has very little cap space with which to operate in the first place. But I think concern over Kyler Murray’s situation would be, at worst, a tiebreaker for free agents the Cardinals are pursuing. Most guys are worried about money first and their own personal fit with a team second, which, depending on the position a player plays, could be affected by who the quarterback is. So maybe if it’s a veteran receiver looking to restore his stock on a one-year deal, it’d could come into play. But with most, it won’t.
From Nick Miller (@NicholasMMiller): The latest on Kirk if there is any … if he is just going to play out his deal, do you think they draft a QB in Round 1?
Nick, the Vikings were looking very hard at the idea of drafting Justin Fields last year, and did take Kellen Mond in the third round. So the team itself, even if it was the old Rick Spielman–Mike Zimmer group running it, has actively looked at putting a successor for Kirk Cousins in place. And it makes sense that they would kick the tires on all their options this year, too, considering some of the top quarterbacks are likely to fall out of the first round.
But I do think that Kevin O’Connell genuinely likes Cousins as a player, having coached him in Washington, and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah knows the value in having a viable bridge quarterback to get you to the next guy. I’ve used the “Alex Smith in Kansas City” analogy a lot this offseason. Smith bought Andy Reid time to find Patrick Mahomes, and I think it’d apply here too. It’s hard to throw a good QB out if you don’t have his replacement lined up.
From Evelyn Halpert (@ChavieHalpert): Do you expect the Giants to trade James Bradberry soon? Also, do you think they are dangling Blake Martinez and Logan Ryan in trade talks?
Evelyn, I think new Giants GM Joe Schoen is open for business. He was part of an impressive rebuild in Buffalo, and an element of that one was being able to creatively move veterans like Tyrod Taylor and Cordy Glenn to accumulate capital and build up the roster. In fact, a pick acquired for the former helped land Tremaine Edmunds and a pick landed for the latter helped get Josh Allen for Buffalo in 2018.
My guess is you’ll see, over the next couple of offseasons, what Schoen learned about managing assets in Buffalo, and offloading veterans like Bradberry will be part of how he does it.
From Sean Kenney (@18seakenney): Do you think there are more players in the NFL who bet on the NFL and just haven’t been caught yet because they go through friends or family?
Sean, yes, and I think the Calvin Ridley case has to be a wakeup call for them. My feeling is an element of the Ridley case is how easy it is to place a bet on your phone now—you hit a couple of buttons and it’s done. It’s not 25 years ago, when you had to know a bookie, then work with that bookie and transact cash with that bookie to do it. You barely have to think about it now. And it’s been mainstreamed to the point that no one feels like they’re doing anything wrong (nor should they, in most cases) when they place a bet.
I’d expect that the Ridley case will be used as a teaching point with players from their teams when they return to work for offseason programs in April. Because obviously, for some guys, the massive “no gambling” signs in every NFL locker room aren’t enough.
From Houston “whatever” Football (@Houstonfootbal3): Hope you’re as rested as it is reasonably possible this time of the year. What positions groups are weak in this draft class outside of QB? Best wishes.
Houston, the one thing that’s really nice about this class is its depth and balance. Tight end, for example, doesn’t present you with a Kyle Pitts this year, but there are a handful of guys who should be available in the third and fourth rounds that easily could become NFL starters. Which is sort of indicative of what the class looks like overall—devoid of freak talents, but with a lot of solid players to mine.
That said, outside of quarterback, from my discussions with teams, I’d probably say running back and defensive tackle would be the two weakest spots.
From Craig Ginsberg (@CraigAdamG): What would be considered a successful year for Zach Wilson this year? .500 record? Playoff contention?
Craig! This is, obviously, a critical year for last year’s No. 2 pick. The Jets need to get him going if they’re going take advantage of the QB-on-a-rookie-contract window, and a huge part of that will be making sure he learns to play more efficiently in Mike LaFleur’s offense. The ups and downs of last year should give him a solid baseline—they more or less shut him down for a few weeks as he came back from injury—and a lot to learn from.
I’ll be honest and say I don’t really know what to expect from him yet. But there were signs of real progress, and Wilson was starting to shed some of the gunslinger tendencies that got him in trouble early in the year, down the stretch.
