1a. The Patrick Mahomes-Josh Allen matchup feels more like a budding “Tom Brady-Peyton Manning” than any other QB head-to-head has. There’s the fact that they’re meeting for the fourth time in two seasons—including for a second consecutive postseason—and the fact that, right now, both quarterbacks are operating at the height of their immense powers.
After a first half of the season filled with fluky turnovers, Mahomes has turned things around in part by adopting a “take what the defense gives you” approach more often. But, also, after weeks of those shorter throws bouncing off and going through receivers’ hands, the Chiefs are now just executing better. In two of their last three meetings—including the 38–20 win in October—Buffalo has backed off and played coverage, daring the Chiefs to beat them with sustained drives. It worked in the last meeting. It didn’t back in the 2020 regular season, and the difference between the two games was Allen’s performance.
Going all the way back to the meeting at The Ralph in October 2020, the Bills fell short because Allen was simply scattershot all game. It is still fair to wonder, as hot as he is right now, whether that’s a possibility on Sunday considering his overall body of work over the last two seasons, while MVP-caliber, has been streaky. He didn’t have to throw it a lot in the 2021 win in Kansas City, but when he did he threw it well, especially when attacking downfield. A new wrinkle in Buffalo’s offense has been increased use of fullback Reggie Gilliam, who both forces the opposing defense to play heavier personnel and, unlike some of their two-tight end looks, seems to have given Buffalo a more consistent run game with which to regulate the offense. That has caused opponents to stop going after the Bills with a torrent of sagging split-safety looks, and helped open up more opportunities in their frequently-used play-action game. But, all that aside, Allen has just been spectacular of late.
