French pollsters have registered a surge in support for French President Emmanuel Macron ahead of presidential elections next month, a bump largely attributed to his handling of the Ukraine war crisis.
France’s incumbent president officially announced his re-election bid on Thursday, finally entering a campaign upended by a war he tried – unsuccessfully – to avert.
Five years after his stunning election to the French presidency, Macron is betting that French voters will opt for stability amid the conflict in Ukraine, trusting him as a safe pair of hands.
With less than a month to go before the first round of voting on April 10, surveys suggest he is right.
On Friday, BVA polling group said Macron had gained a massive five points in the last fortnight, bolstered by his frenetic diplomatic efforts to dissuade Russia from an invasion.
It suggested Macron would finish first with 29 percent in the first round and would then triumph in the second-round run-off vote irrespective of his opponent, with far-right candidate Marine Le Pen seen as his closest challenger.
"Emmanuel Macron is benefiting from his triple status as head of state, protector of the people and their values, (and) head of the army and national diplomacy," BVA said in a statement.
A bump in support was confirmed by rival posters Ifop and OpinionWay, which gave Macron at 28% and 27%, respectively, up from the 24% he had averaged in recent months.
A poll on Thursday by the Kantar group showed the proportion of voters expressing confidence in him had risen five points to 45 percent – an impressive showing for a French president (his predecessor famously hit 4% at one point) and Macron’s best rating since August 2017.
>> Read more: Spirited, disruptive, impotent? Five years of Macron on the international stage
Low-key declaration
Macron confirmed his plans to seek a second term on Thursday evening in a low-key open letter addressed to voters, saying he was seeking their "trust" for another five years "to defend our values, which are threatened by the disruptions of the world".
He acknowledged that the election campaign would be overshadowed by Russia's war on its neighbour, which has seen him take a prominent role in Western efforts to find a diplomatic solution.
"Of course, I will not be able to campaign as I would have liked because of the context," he said.
Some opponents welcomed the declaration, which came just 24 hours ahead of a deadline on Friday, while others scoffed.
"The democratic debate (...) that I have been calling for these past months can finally take place," said the Socialist Party candidate, Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo.
"We might have expected a letter of apology beforehand," said Manuel Bompard, the campaign manager of hard-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
At the other end of the political spectrum, far-right candidate Éric Zemmour accused the incumbent of serving "a term for nothing", claiming France had become "unlivable” because of Macron.
Advantage Macron
While polls suggest a slim majority of French people approve of Macron’s Ukraine stance, the war has put prominent opponents in a tight spot, forcing them into embarrassing U-turns.
Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, France’s far-right candidates had spoken admiringly of the Russian president, in Zemmour’s case even longing for a “French Putin”. Though he is no fan of Putin, Mélenchon has in the past joined his rivals in belittling the threat from Moscow even as he blamed NATO for stirring trouble.
Such stances could damage their credibility in a campaign now firmly focused on "international issues, which are an area of strength for Emmanuel Macron, said Antoine Bristielle, a public opinion expert at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, a Paris-based think-tank.
"It's better for him than [a debate focusing on] social issues or questions around household income," he told AFP.
However, some analysts have cautioned against overestimating the impact of world affairs on voters’ choices.
“Candidates will have to talk about world affairs a lot more than in the past – and you can tell a number of them are not comfortable doing so,” Martin Quencez, a security analyst and deputy director of the German Marshall Fund’s Paris office, told FRANCE 24. “But regarding voters’ choices, I don’t think it will change much. People typically choose based on domestic politics and the candidates’ personalities. No-one will win or lose the election based on foreign policy.”
>> Read more: Ukraine war puts France’s NATO-sceptic presidential candidates in a tight spot
A campaign without debate?
Both candidates and election observers have expressed concern that the war will eclipse discussion of domestic issues that voters are known to be concerned about, such as jobs, health, crime and the environment.
Little is known about Macron’s programme for the next five years, though he promised more tax cuts in his declaration letter, changes to the education system and a further strengthening of the European Union.
“The main risk for Macron is being re-elected relatively easily but without a proper campaign," Bristielle said. "If the debate is not settled in the ballot box, then it gets settled on the streets."
After his election in 2017, Macron claimed he had a strong mandate to push through major tax and labour market reforms, but opponents openly questioned his legitimacy because of low turnout and his slim victory margin in the first round.
After a string of relatively minor protests, Macron faced a national revolt by so-called Yellow Vest protesters in late 2018, fuelled in part by calls for greater accountability in French democracy.
Some pollsters predict that abstention rates, which hit a record in 2017, could be even higher in this year's vote on April 10 and 24 – particularly in the event of a repeat of the Macron-Le Pen duel in the second round.
Back in February 2020, almost 80% of voters surveyed by pollster Elabe said they did not want a repeat of the 2017 runoff. However, the same poll found that 59% of respondents believed it was inevitable, due to a lack of alternatives.
>> Read more: French leftists unite with Greens to avoid 2022 repeat of the Macron-Le Pen duel
