As Washington warned of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine, Emmanuel Macron claimed to have secured a commitment from Vladimir Putin to engage in immediate fresh efforts for a ceasefire and further talks to resolve the crisis.
Engaging in a diplomatic flurry on Sunday, billed by the Elysee Palace as a “last possible” bid to avert an invasion, the French president held separate calls with his counterparts in Russia and Ukraine.
Following an 105-minute phone call with Mr Putin, Mr Macron’s office said the pair had agreed to work “intensively” for meetings to be held “in the next few hours” aimed at securing a ceasefire in the Donbas region.
Western leaders have expressed fears that increased shelling in separatist-held parts of the Donbas in recent days could represent a “false-flag operation” laying the pretext for a Russian invasion, after pro-Russian authorities in Luhansk and Donetsk sought to blame Ukraine for the upsurge in violence – ordering military mobilisations and the evacuation of citizens across the border into Russia.
Also pointing to Russia’s extension of military drills in Belarus on Sunday, US secretary of state Anthony Blinken told CNN: “All of this along with the false flag operations we’ve seen unfold over the weekend tells us that the playbook that we laid out is moving forward ... everything leading up to the actual invasion appears to be taking place”.
But following Mr Macron’s calls with Mr Putin and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, it was announced that a meeting would take place on Monday between officials from Ukraine, Russia and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) – the group assigned to monitor the move to a ceasefire in the Donbas under the Minsk agreement in 2015.
Addressing the wider crisis – sparked after Mr Putin amassed troops at Ukraine’s border and issued list of demands for Nato – the Elysee said both Mr Putin and Mr Zelensky had agreed to work toward a diplomatic solution to the wider crisis “in coming days and coming weeks”.
“If the conditions are met”, further diplomatic work should allow the organisation of “a meeting at the highest level in order to define a new peace and security order in Europe”, Mr Macron’s office said.
Later on Sunday, the French president held calls with allies including Joe Biden and Boris Johnson, and was expected to try to reach Italy’s Mario Draghi and Olaf Scholz, the German Chancellor.
The US president and Mr Putin both separately agreed, in principle, to attend a summit to be prepared by Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and Mr Blinken on Thursday – so long as Russia does not invade Ukraine, Mr Macron’s office said.
A Downing Street spokeswoman said the prime minister had told Mr Macron that the commitments given to him by Mr Putin were “a welcome sign that he might still be willing to engage in finding a diplomatic solution”.
The British prime minister stressed that the voice of Ukraine – which requested the extraordinary meeting with Russian and OSCE officials on Monday – must be central in any discussions, Downing Street said.
Mr Johnson and Mr Macron “agreed on the need for both Russia and Ukraine to meet their commitments under the Minsk agreements in full”, No 10 said, adding that the two leaders had “agreed next week would be crucial for diplomacy and resolved to stay in close contact”.
While Mr Macron and Mr Putin have pointed to the Minsk accords as offering potentially the only route out of the current crisis, their proper interpretation is disputed, and critics fear aspects of the ambiguous deal could undermine Ukrainian sovereignty and could prove politically toxic for Mr Zelensky domestically.
The Kremlin’s version of Mr Putin’s call with Mr Macron – their fourth conversation since mid-December – offered a somewhat thornier take on the discussion, including in reference to Kiev’s implementation of the Minsk agreement.
“Serious concerns” were expressed over the “quickly deteriorating situation” in the Donbas region, the Kremlin said.
But while Mr Macron blamed separatists, the Kremlin said Mr Putin had blamed “Ukrainian militants” and accused Nato of “encouraging Kiev to pursue a military solution” in Donetsk and Luhansk by sending Ukraine “modern weapons and ammunitions”. By contrast on Saturday, the EU commended Kiev’s “restraint in the face of continued provocations”.
However, the Kremlin appeared to corroborate French claims of an agreement over intensified diplomatic and ceasefire negotiations.
Accusing Kiev of “only imitating a negotiating process and [continuing] to refuse to implement the Minsk agreements”, the Kremlin said that, “considering the state of affairs, the two presidents found it expedient to step up the search for a diplomatic solution”.
“These meetings” of the so-called Normandy format countries which brokered the 2015 deal – France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia – “are to help restore the ceasefire and ensure progress in settling the conflict around Donbas”, the Kremlin said.
According to an interpretation of the Minsk accords favoured by Russia, separatists in Luhansk and Donetsk could be granted veto powers over major decisions in Kiev, which could hypothetically prevent Ukraine from joining Nato – echoing one of Mr Putin’s key demands in the current crisis.
Concluding its summary of the phone call, the Kremlin said Mr Putin “once again emphasised the need for the US and Nato to take Russia’s demands to ensure its security guarantees as seriously as possible and to respond specifically and to the point”.
