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AAP
AAP
Politics
Ben McKay

Luxon struggling to win over Kiwis in tough NZ times

Chris Luxon, a self-described extrovert, enjoys meeting Kiwis but has struggled to win them over. (Ben McKay/AAP PHOTOS)

Business. Leader. Greedy. Arrogant. OK.

The top words associated by Kiwis with New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Luxon are not quite what he might have liked nine months into the job.

It's been a rocky ride for Mr Luxon since leading New Zealand's political right into power last October, ending six years of Labour governments led by Jacinda Ardern and Chris Hipkins. 

In opposition, Mr Luxon's rise was unparalleled.

The 54-year-old ended his lucrative corporate career to enter parliament in 2020, became opposition leader in 2021 and seized government last year.

But in office, Mr Luxon has gone without a honeymoon with voters, taking office during major economic challenges and showing his political inexperience with a series of gaffes.

"Compared to other first-time prime ministers, Luxon is extremely unpopular," Luke Malpass, political editor for Wellington newspaper The Post, told AAP.

Chris Luxon
Chris Luxon entered parliament in 2020, became opposition leader in 2021 and won government in 2024. (Ben McKay/AAP PHOTOS)

Polling from both sides of politics backs this up.

Talbot Mills, which polls for the Labour party and supplied the word association quoted above, has data on the favourability for recent prime ministers nine months into their tenure.

Helen Clark had a positive net favourability (the total number of people approving of her job performance minus the total disapproving) of 36 per cent.

John Key was in the clouds on 56 and Jacinda Ardern 55 before scoring even higher later in her tenure.

In contrast, Mr Luxon has more detractors than supporters, scoring minus four.

What's behind this failure to launch?

The government's agenda, the economic landscape and a few self-inflicted wounds.

The National party took office in November by forming a three-party government with free-market libertarians ACT and the populist NZ First party.

Coalition deals signed with ACT and NZ First spelled out the government's policy agenda, including reforms tackling deep-seated and controversial issues.

The government is "right-sizing" the public sector, slashing thousands of public servants from all corners of government.

Their new approach to Maori - axing Maori-specific services, cutting Maori language use by public bodies and encouraging debate on reforming the Treaty of Waitangi - has drawn many protests. 

Major work programs in health, education, welfare, justice and elsewhere amount to a lot of change, with Mr Luxon the lightning rod for opposition.

Furthermore, Mr Luxon came into office during a recession and remains mired in one.

"People are grumpy, the economy is going backwards per person at a rate of a bit over two per cent a year so favourability towards the government is really tied up in that," Mr Malpass said.

Chris Luxon
While Chris Luxon's personal popularity is questionable, his energy levels are not. (Shane Wenzlick/AAP PHOTOS)

Then there are Mr Luxon's communication challenges.

During the election campaign, Mr Luxon was recorded saying New Zealand was a "very negative, wet, whiny, inward-looking country".

In December, he told public servants to fund their own Maori language training despite taxpayers paying for his.

He defended claiming a $13,000 accommodation perk to live in his own apartment by saying "I'm entitled to the entitlement" before U-turning and repaying it.

This was a particularly bad look given Mr Luxon's personal wealth, owning seven mortgage-free homes owing to his corporate career.

More recently, he told parliament Australians needed things described to them "simply", labelled smaller Kiwi businesses as "C-List", and couldn't name the amount jobseekers received when announcing welfare changes.

Janet Wilson, a previous press secretary to a former National party leader, says Mr Luxon still faces a challenge to define himself.

"His problem is New Zealanders are thinking, 'Will the real Chris Luxon stand up? Who is he? What does he stand for?'" 

"Who is he? He's a man who talks in his corporate-speak all the time.

"It's very easy to stereotype men these day - much more than it is to stereotype women - and that he could easily get stereotyped."

David Farrar, the pollster for Curia - which has worked for National - concedes Mr Luxon has a personal favourability challenge.

He said Mr Luxon's numbers "bounce around from being mildly negative to mildly positive" but it was unreasonable to expect him to match the "world-class generational leaders" of Mr Key and Ms Ardern.

"Favourability is very important ... it's a precondition almost. If you don't like someone you are very unlikely to vote for them," he said.

Mr Malpass says Mr Luxon is angling for a different vote of confidence.

"He knows, and the people around him know, he is unlikely to be a really popular prime minister," he said.

"What he can hope to be is respected. And you can do that if the government delivers on the things that it has said it is going to deliver in."

Chris Luxon
Chris Luxon came to politics well known to Kiwis as a former CEO of Air New Zealand. (Erik Anderson/AAP PHOTOS)

To that end, Mr Luxon has runs on the board.

His "first 100-day plan" and quarterly plans are stacked with election promises and action items from coalition agreements that his government is ticking off with rigour.

National's biggest campaign pledge - giving Kiwis their first income tax cuts - was delivered last month.

While Mr Luxon has his critics, National has an edge over Labour in both raw polling and as the party seen as the best to tackle key issues.

"National is 26 per cent ahead of Labour as best economic managers, and 24 per cent on inflation," Mr Farrar said.

"They've got a solid lead on the key economic issues and at the moment the economy is still important.

"National has a lead over Labour on health and education of nine per cent in both ... pretty good for areas where traditionally centre-left parties are seen as better."

Mr Malpass said so long as National looked likely to win a second term in office - as it does - Mr Luxon would keep his job whether Kiwis liked him or not.

"In Australia, they used to say that Kevin Rudd had the Newspoll faction," he said, a reference to Mr Rudd's favourability with voters.

"Luxon does not have that faction.

"The risk for Luxon is if things start to go a bit wrong, he clearly doesn't have a reservoir of popularity with the New Zealand public and that would likely make his caucus colleagues a bit worried."

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