New Zealand's National party are standing by contentious campaign calls even as they hit a wobble just days from the election finish line.
Party leaders are on board a bright blue bus that left Wellington on Wednesday bound for Auckland, a 900km odyssey over three days that will pull up at a pub in leader Chris Luxon's electorate on election eve.
The centre-right opposition are on track to govern after the October 14 election according to three polls released on Wednesday.
The TVNZ-Verian, Newshub-Reid Research and Guardian-Essential polls all have the left bloc, led by the governing Labour party, gaining ground on the right, but not enough to form government.
The sting in the tail of those polls for National is that it seems certain it will need two coalition partners to govern: ACT and New Zealand First.
And should the ship run aground in the final three days - including in Thursday night's final leaders debate, expected to be watched by more than one million Kiwis - Chris Hipkins' Labour has improved to be in striking distance of a third term.
The contest has tightened from six weeks earlier, when National boasted a double-digit poll lead over Labour and conditions appeared ripe for a change of government.
A recessionary economy, out of control inflation and rising crime are all on voters' minds, and overwhelmingly they blamed the Labour government.
Two decisions loom large over National's campaign: both involving NZ First leader Winston Peters.
A fortnight ago, Mr Luxon ended months of speculation by announcing the party was willing to govern alongside the 78-year-old.
Under New Zealand's electoral system, parties spend the days - sometimes weeks - following elections in negotiations to form coalitions, horse-trading for ministerial roles or policies, which necessitates pre-election signals from each party of who they are willing to work with.
At the same time he ruled NZ First in, Mr Luxon also urged Kiwis not to vote for him as National's preference was to govern with ACT alone.
This appears to have had a reverse effect, with NZ First's polling going up as Mr Peters, first elected in 1978, put himself forward as the voice of experience in a government with Mr Luxon, a first-term MP, and ACT leader David Seymour, a 40-year-old.
Campaign chair Chris Bishop told AAP a number of options were on the table regarding the wily populist.
"We could have ruled him out. We could have been a bit more full-throated in the endorsement," he said.
"In the end, we were up front and honest with New Zealanders.
"Ultimately, we live in a democracy, and if New Zealand First makes it back into parliament and that's the will of the voters then Chris Luxon said, 'Well, I'll pick up the phone'."
A second turning point arrived last weekend when Mr Bishop warned Kiwis a second election may be necessary it was unable to strike a deal with Mr Peters - a notoriously tough negotiator.
Other parties seized on the notion of a second election: Mr Peters said it showed contempt for voters, Mr Seymour decried the cost and energy, while Mr Hipkins said it showed National was running scared.
Mr Bishop said it was designed to remind Kiwis that a vote for National would avoid chaos.
"I was just making the point that it's one of any number of plausible scenarios after election day," he said.
"I think New Zealanders want to wake up on October 15, knowing that the government has changed and knowing that the shape of that government is clear."
One pollster, Newshub-Reid Research, found National's vote crashed 4.6 per cent in the last week. A link is likely.
While the wisdom of those calls remain in the balance, National's campaign has been far from a disaster.
Day to day, Mr Luxon is out-campaigning Mr Hipkins.
The blue team is visiting more towns, with more energy - both from the leader and from locals who want to meet him - than the red team, which also had to contend with Mr Hipkins' five-day isolation after catching COVID-19.
One day, Mr Luxon is driving golf balls, the next he's patting baby goats.
He's at businesses or farms or announcing policy, he's happy to walk around malls and take his chances with locals.
Kiwis respond overwhelmingly with positivity, though on Saturday one Whanganui local scolded the 53-year-old for shutting services to their local airport while he was Air New Zealand chief executive.
"We are getting good reaction out there," Mr Luxon told AAP.
"I am in marginal seats, I'm not just staying in Wellington and going to the Hutt and the Lower Hutt, and to wherever else (Mr Hipkins) goes to, very safe red seats.
"I've been out and about bouncing around the country, different seats, to different cities, different towns every day."
In a tell-tale sign of an attitudinal shift, Mr Luxon is campaign fit, losing several kilograms and looking sharp as he bounces from stop to stop.
"I had been in parliament for two years and just hadn't been able to get my exercise regime and my diet in a good place," he said.
"Just making sure I'm killing the crap in what I'm eating and also exercising ... usually a run or a walk-run for eight ks."
Mr Luxon, a teetotaller, keeps a no-excuses 4.30am wake-up alarm, and his energy for the contest is palpable.
"He just loves people. He's a people person," Mr Bishop says.
"We're really happy with the campaign we've run. High energy.
"And we've tried to get Christopher doing fun things to make the news and New Zealanders like seeing their political leaders out about doing sometimes silly things. That's politics in this country."
