The Lunar New Year holiday season in mainland China is notorious for its lively box office competition, and this year is no exception. As the most lucrative time for cinemas, the week-long holiday period attracts both Chinese and Hollywood films vying for the attention of moviegoers. This year, eight Chinese-language films are set to release simultaneously, creating an exciting battle for box office dominance.
Traditionally, the Lunar New Year holiday has become a highly coveted period for film releases, with filmmakers strategically planning their releases months or even years in advance. This year, the holiday officially runs from February 10th to February 17th, but employers are encouraged to grant workers an additional day off on February 9th. This gives people residing in cities the opportunity to travel back to their hometowns and rural areas to celebrate the festivities with their families. The scale of this mass migration is often described as the world's largest annual migration event.
It is uncertain whether this year's Lunar New Year season will surpass the success of the previous year, where ticket sales reached an impressive $1 billion. Some attribute last year's booming box office sales to 'revenge spending' following the hardships of the COVID-19 pandemic. Zhang Tong, a senior analyst at China's Maoyan Research Institute, estimates that the box office revenue for this year's holiday season could range between RMB 7-8 billion ($975 million to $1.1 billion). However, it's crucial to note that this year's holiday period is longer, making it the 'longest Spring Holiday ever.'
Initial feedback from audiences indicates a positive reception towards this year's Spring Festival movies, instilling optimism within the industry regarding the box office performance. In 2023, the top-grossing films were Zhang Yimou's period comedy drama 'Full River Red,' which earned an impressive RMB 4.55 billion ($633 million), and the sci-fi blockbuster sequel 'The Wandering Earth II,' which raked in RMB 4.03 billion ($561 million). However, several macro and micro factors may pose challenges to box office records this year.
On a macro level, China's economy has not fully rebounded as anticipated after the impact of COVID-19, with various issues such as the housing sector crisis, high youth unemployment, and strains on international trade. Additionally, weather and transportation problems could potentially affect cinema attendance. Moreover, this year's lineup of Chinese films features fewer established franchises and lower-budget productions, as stated by state media. The rise of local streaming platforms also offers audiences a wide selection of new titles to enjoy from the comfort of their own homes.
Among the new Chinese films, 'Pegasus 2,' a car-racing comedy sequel helmed by director and former racing driver Han Han, and 'YOLO,' a heartwarming comedy adapted from the Japanese film '100 Yen Love,' appear to be the frontrunners, based on pre-sales ticketing data. 'YOLO' is the second film by Jia Ling, whose tearjerker time-travel comedy 'Hi, Mom' captured the hearts of millions during Chinese New Year in 2021, earning a remarkable RMB 5.41 billion ($752 million). Another film to watch out for is 'Article 20,' a light drama directed by Zhang Yimou, centered around the concept of justifiable defense in Chinese criminal law. Rounding out the current top contenders is 'The Movie Emperor,' a satirical comedy starring Hong Kong superstar Andy Lau, directed by acclaimed filmmaker Ning Hao.
In addition to these films, the holiday season will also showcase a trio of animated titles, such as the annual 'Boonie Bears' franchise film, 'Time Twist.' Another animated offering is 'Ba Jie,' directed by He Ranhao, which explores the realms of demons, sacred artifacts, and the gateway to Heaven. 'Huang Pi: God of Wealth Cat' utilizes motion capture technology to weave an animated tale about a multilingual cat who dispenses money. However, despite its unique concept, the film appears to have started its promotional campaign later than others, currently holding the eighth spot in pre-sales rankings.
It's worth noting that China boasts the largest number of Imax premium large format screens in the world. As part of their efforts to support Chinese filmmakers, Imax will feature four Chinese movies during the holiday season: 'YOLO,' 'Article 20,' 'Boonie Bears: Time Twist,' and 'Pegasus 2.' According to Zhang from Maoyan, the eventual winner of the Lunar New Year box office battle is likely to emerge from the ranks of 'YOLO,' 'Pegasus 2,' or 'Article 20,' with 'Boonie Bears' being the preferred choice for parent-child audiences.
As the Lunar New Year approaches, the excitement surrounding the holiday box office race continues to build. Audiences eagerly anticipate these new Chinese-language films, hoping to be entertained and swept away by captivating stories and unforgettable performances. Only time will tell which films will conquer the box office and leave a lasting impression on audiences during this auspicious season.
