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HARRISON MILLER

Lululemon Spikes On Results; Dollar Tree Mulls Sale Of Family Dollar; Discount Retailer Breaks Out, One Falls

Lululemon jumped Thursday and was one of the top performers in the S&P 500, after rounding out a busy day of retail earnings on Wednesday.  Five Below tumbled on its guidance. Dollar Tree posted a softer-than-expected Q2 forecast and announced a review to explore the potential sale of Family Dollar. Ollie's Bargain Outlet broke out after clearing views for its report.

Lululemon

Lululemon earnings increased 11.4% to $2.54 per share. Net revenue increased 10% to $2.2 billion, edging out views of $2.199 billion.

FactSet forecasts called for earnings to increase 5.3% to $2.40 per share.

The athleisure retailer recorded more than 20% earnings growth over the last three quarters while sales increased in the high-teens percentage.

Comparable sales rose 6%, although comparable sales for the Americas were flat for the quarter. International comparable sales leapt 25%, Lululemon reported.

For the second quarter, Lululemon guided a 9% to 10% sales increase to range from $2.4 billion to $2.42 billion, while earnings range from $2.92 to $2.97 per share. The outlook was below Wall Street's Q2 views 13% earnings growth to $3.03 per share and $2.45 billion in sales.

But the full-year EPS outlook was ahead of Wall Street forecasts. Lululemon expects 2025 earnings to range from $14.27 to $14.47 per share while sales increase between 11% and 12% to range from $10.7 billion to $10.8 billion. FactSet estimates full-year earnings increase to $14.13 per share on $10.76 billion in revenue.

The company also authorized a $1 billion increase to Lululemon's stock repurchase program, bringing the total remaining in the buyback plan to $1.7 billion.

LULU stock jumped 4.8% Thursday after leading the S&P 500 in early trade. Shares spiked 8.8% premarket .

Lululemon stock tumbled nearly 37% after the company's outlook from its Q4 report came in well below FactSet estimates.

Five Below

Five Below reported a nearly 15% decline in earnings to 57 cents per share while sales increased 11.8% to $811.9 million.

Analysts expected earnings to fall nearly 6% to 63 cents per share. Wall Street predicted sales growth to slow after accelerating the last two quarters, increasing 14.9% to $834 million.

Comparable sales decreased 2.3% year over year.

Five Below guided Q2 earnings to range from 57 cents to 69 cents per share on $830 million to $850 million in sales. The guidance was well below FactSet views of 19.9% earnings growth to 99 cents per share on 16.5% revenue growth to $884 million.

Five Below forecasts full-year adjusted earnings range from $5 to $5.40 per share while sales range from $3.79 billion to $3.87 billion. The discount retailer estimates comparable sales decrease 3% to 5% for the year.

Wall Street sees 2025 earnings increasing 10.9% to $6 per share while revenue increases 13.3% to $4.03 billion.

FIVE stock pared losses to 10.6% Thursday after tumbling more than 16% in early trade. Shares retreated 3.7% during trade Wednesday.

Shares have cratered 44.3% in 2024.

Dollar Tree

Dollar Tree reported a 2.7% decline in adjusted earnings to $1.43 per share, which matched FactSet estimates. Sales increased 4.2% to $7.63 billion, also in line with forecasts.

In a separate announcement, Dollar Tree said it is reviewing strategic alternatives for Family Dollar, which could include the potential sale, spinoff or disposition of the business. The goal of is to position the Dollar Tree and Family Dollar banners "to progress further and faster," while creating value for Dollar Tree shareholders and other stakeholders, the company said. J.P. Morgan Securities and Davis Polk & Wardwell will serve as advisors to the review, according to the announcement.

The company during its fourth-quarter results announced plans to close 970 underperforming Family Dollar stores to focus investments on the remaining locations.

Dollar Tree guided Q2 adjusted earnings to range from $1 to $1.10 per share on $7.3 billion to $7.6 billion in sales. The earnings outlook was below FactSet forecasts of $1.19 per share, but met sales views of $7.59 billion.

The company sees full-year earnings ranging from $6.50 to $7 per share and Dollar Tree maintained its sales outlook of $31 billion to $32 billion.

FactSet expect 2025 earnings increase nearly 17% to $6.89 per share on 2.5% sales growth to $31.36 billion.

DLTR stock declined another 1.8% Thursday after falling 4.9% Wednesday.

DLTR stock has dropped 20.9% so far in 2024.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet

Ollie's Bargain Outlet reported Q1 earnings increased 49% to 73 cents per share adjusted while sales rose 10.8% to $508.8 million.

The results beat Wall Street forecasts of 65 cents per share on $506 million in sales. Ollie's earnings growth accelerated the past two quarters. But sales growth slowed after five quarters of accelerating gains.

Ollie's lifted its 2024 sales outlook slightly to range from $2.257 billion to $2.277 billion. The discount retailer forecasts adjusted earnings to range from $3.18 to $3.28 per share, compared to its prior guidance of $3.10 to $3.20 per share. Ollie's sees 2024 comparable store sales increasing 1.5% to 2.3%, up from the previous forecast of 1% to 2% same-store sales growth.

FactSet analysts estimate 2024 earnings increase 9.6% to $3.19 per share on 7.8% sales growth to $2.268 billion.

OLLI stock retreated 6.1% Thursday to fall back below a 84.38 buy point for a 14-week cup base. Shares rallied 9.5% Wednesday to break out.

The base is the latest pattern in a series of subsequent bases. But the stock has been unable to score a definitive breakout since July of last year.

OLLI stock climbed 11.2% this year.

You can follow Harrison Miller for more stock news and updates on Twitter @IBD_Harrison

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