Texas’ Third Congressional District fits neatly within the borders of Collin County. Since the 1960s, the district has been represented by conservative, white men who have served for decades at a time, often running unopposed. Sam Johnson, rated one of the most conservative lawmakers in the U.S. House in 2010, held the seat for nearly 30 years before he announced his retirement in 2018.
Few were surprised when Van Taylor, a veteran Republican politician who’d spent the previous decade in the Texas Legislature, won Johnson’s seat. What did come as a surprise was the fact that he won by only 10 points against Lorie Burch, an openly gay, pro-choice, pro-gun control Democrat who once told the Dallas Morning News that climate change was the greatest national security threat facing the United States. Burch was running something of a shoestring campaign with only $313,000; Taylor had raised well over $3 million. “I put him close,” Burch says. “He told me after the election that he’d never had to work so hard.”
In hindsight, the hairline cracks in this Republican stronghold were apparent two years ago. With a little more pressure, and support from the national Democratic Party, it’s possible that one of the state’s most conservative suburban districts could finally flip in November. The looming possibility of a second term for Donald Trump has galvanized Democratic voters: More than 63,000 voted in the March primaries, nearly doubling the Democratic turnout from the previous election year. Meanwhile the number of Republican primary voters, who didn’t have a primary to vote for in this race, remained roughly the same: 54,000.
