The NBA’s slate of Christmas Day games was a perfect 10. No notes, except please stop it with the viewership talk. All five games gave fans thrilling and compelling basketball from some of the league’s best and brightest.
The only lump-of-coal-in-stockings moment was when Luka Doncic exited the Dallas Mavericks-Minnesota Timberwolves game with an apparent calf injury and did not return. It was later reported that Doncic, who already missed time with a calf strain earlier this season, is expected to be sidelined for an extended period and will be re-evaluated in one month.
Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic will be re-evaluated in one month after sustaining a left calf strain on Christmas Day, sources tell ESPN. https://t.co/HVrzlaEzOR
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) December 27, 2024
It’s a bummer. Doncic will not only miss out on award recognition with the league’s 65-game rule, but the Mavericks are losing their enigmatic superstar — the key to their championship hopes — for the next little bit.
Still, perhaps there’s a silver lining to this. Last year’s Western Conference Champions stormed back from down 28 points to make it a game against Minnesota on Wednesday. Dallas offered a spirited effort from a defensive-minded group and enjoyed an explosive game from Kyrie Irving, who poured in 26 of his 39 points in the second half.
While Doncic is the crux of everything the Mavericks want to do, this version is more well-prepared than ever to survive a prolonged stretch of basketball without him.
Here’s how they can do it.
Lean On Their Defense
Obviously, the Mavericks will not be better offensively without Doncic. His cerebral playmaking, combined with his size and three-level scoring, makes him one of the most gifted and dominant offensive weapons in the NBA. Losing that will cost the Mavericks some points on any given night. They go from putting up more than 121 points per 100 possessions with Doncic on the floor to 114 points per 100 possessions without him.
But that’s not the end of the world. In fact, this is the first season since 2022 in which the Mavericks are still winning their minutes without Doncic on the floor. They’ve found a recipe that works without him. While some of that has to do with the added offensive firepower of Irving and Klay Thompson, it’s mostly is because of their defense.
I won’t go on a tirade about Doncic’s defense. Even though the Mavericks are slightly better on that end without him (two points better per 100), he’s improved. Doncic has bought into using his size and length off the ball and has made a concerted effort on the ball. The team around him, armed with length, athleticism and size, helps mitigate his weaknesses.
Derrick Lively II, Daniel Gafford, PJ Washington, Quentin Grimes and Naji Marshall provide insurance for the Doncic-Irving-Thompson perimeter defense trio. It’s become a tried and true system that helped them make it to the Finals last year.
In the eight games Doncic has previously missed this season, Dallas is 6-2 with impressive wins over the Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets and New York Knicks. It was a top-10 defense during that stretch and leaned on its size and length to build an identity. This year, the Mavericks are the NBA’s second-best transition defense that will undoubtedly be better without Doncic. Dallas concedes about 3.6 points more per 100 transition possessions when he’s on the court.
Without Doncic, the Mavericks can throw bigger lineups on the floor featuring Maxi Kleber, while Grimes will likely see extended minutes. I’m also hoping for more Olivier Maxence-Prosper, who is a really talented defender and has shown flashes this season.
One of the Mavericks’ five most frequently used lineups does not include Doncic. They have a net rating of plus-38.8 in the 38 minutes that Irving, Thompson, Grimes, Washington and Lively have shared, headlined by a defensive rating of 97. It’s a small sample, but something the Mavericks coaching staff can work with to navigate Doncic’s absence.
More than anything, the improved defensive infrastructure around Doncic should help the Mavericks stay competitive in games without him, even if the offense won’t be as dynamic.
Kyrie Irving Has Been Brilliant
While the defensive burden is a team-wide effort, specifically expect Irving’s offense usage to see an uptick without Doncic, which could provide some special performances.
Irving has been nothing short of incredible since joining the Mavericks. He was sensational last season as the No. 2 option on a title contender. He’s back and performing just as well, averaging 24 points, five rebounds and five assists on 61 percent true shooting — numbers worthy of All-Star consideration, even in the stacked Western Conference. Perhaps, if he keeps this up while Doncic is sidelined, he’ll get the nod.
Again, the Mavericks won’t be better on offense without Doncic. But maybe they’re now better equipped to endure life without him? Doncic’s 34.9 percent usage rate is his lowest since his rookie season. There’s been a concerted effort to ease his load throughout the year, and it’s helped to rely on a secondary guard like Irving and sharpshooter like Thompson.
This may allow the Mavericks to give Lively more opportunity as a creator, especially in the short roll. Paired with Irving, that pick-and-roll partnership could blossom. But it still will be an Irving-centric offense, and they will need his continued brilliance to weather this storm.
This next stretch is a massive test for the Mavericks. This season, they’re one of only six teams with a top-10 offense and defense. They’ve shown all the hallmarks of being the same title contenders they were the second half of last season, but Doncic’s absence could throw a wrench in their plans if they let it.
That said, this team is more prepared than ever to temporarily deal with life without Doncic. Over the last 18 months, Dallas’ front office has, in quick order, created a roster around its superstar that accentuates his strengths, mitigates his weaknesses and creates a real opportunity for him to win an NBA title. In theory, the byproduct of those moves should mean it’s built a roster that can also compete nightly without him.
There’s no need to ring any alarm bells. It’s time for the Mavericks to trust what they’ve built and lean on it as their foundation. We’ll see how they fare, beginning Friday against the Phoenix Suns.
