When working through the breakout list, I noticed multiple players that fit the breakout fantasy category. However, I didn’t want to use anyone that already had a high-ranking season on their major league resume. Many of these players failed due to injuries over the past couple of seasons.
MORE: 2022 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
Potential comeback player candidates
3B Alex Bregman, HOU: Two years ago, Bregman ranked as one of the best players in the game while owning an outstanding approach. Over 1,148 at-bats between 2018 and 2019, he hit .291 with 227 runs, 72 home runs, 215 RBI, and 15 stolen bases, leading to him being considered a top 15 hitter in baseball. Bregman battled a hamstring injury over the past two years while also having right wrist surgery last November. This draft season, he has an ADP of 86 in the NFBC as the 54th batter selected. Bregman plays in a high-scoring offense with a premium slot in the batting order for the Astros. I expect him to be an excellent investment year.
OF Cody Bellinger, LAD: The excitement in Bellinger’s bat started to leave the building over the second half of 2019 (.263/51/17/44/7 over 240 at-bats). Over his last 151 games, he hit only .195 over 528 at-bats with 72 runs, 22 home runs, 66 RBI, and nine stolen bases. Even with regression in his swing, Bellinger still had strength in his walk rate (11.1) while not being far off the league average in his strikeout rate (22.9). He hit .278 over his first 1,595 at-bats with the Dodgers with 292 runs, 111 home runs, 228 RBI, and 39 steals. His swing has 40+ home runs upside, and Bellinger has the wheels to steal double-digit bags. Unfortunately, injuries crushed him last year, and he looked lost at the plate for much of the season. Bellinger has the ceiling of a first-round player with a gift-looking ADP (96).
Fantasy baseball rankings: Hitters | Pitchers
OF Christian Yelich, MIL: Yelich is a third player who looks undervalued based on his ceiling and best years with the Brewers. His ADP (98) in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship slipped behind Bregman and Bellinger over the past two weeks in 12-team formats in the high-stakes market. The biggest strike with Yelich is relapsing in power due to his massive ground ball swing. He overcame that shortfall in 2018 and 2019 (.327 with 218 runs, 80 home runs, 207 RBI, and 52 stolen bases over 1,063 at-bats) by hitting over one-third of his fly-balls into the seats. Besides batting average (.234), Yelich still posted productive stats over his last 599 at-bats (109 runs, 21 home runs, 73 RBI, and 13 stolen bases). I'll take a flier on a rebound in batting average while understanding his floor in the counting categories. If his power returns, I could be a pitching wedge away from a championship if I get the rest of my roster right on draft day.
3B Anthony Rendon, LAA: There is something to say for a player who hits one slot away from a top batter in fantasy baseball. Rendon should hit behind Mike Trout in the batting order, creating a high volume of RBI chances. He missed 104 games last season while battling multiple injuries. When at his best from 2017 to 2019, Rendon hit .310 over 1,582 at-bats for the Nationals with 286 runs, 83 home runs, 318 RBI, and 14 steals. He remains challenging to strike out while being priced (ADP – 112) to reward fantasy teams handsomely in 2022. His ceiling isn't as high as Alex Bregman's, but Rendon should outperform his draft value.
OF Austin Meadows, TB: I did multiple drafts in late February, and I was surprised to see Meadows hang around sometimes in the 12th round in 15-team formats. Over the past two weeks, his ADP (144) in the NFBC prices him as the 88th hitter drafted. Last year he had productive stats in runs (79), home runs (27), and RBI (106) while having underlying speed on his career resume in minors (66 over 1,761 at-bats) and majors (23 over 1,358 at-bats). His draft snub comes from a low batting average (.228) over his last 650 at-bats). However, Meadows offers an above-average approach at the plate, so his batting average should rebound in a big way this year. To reach an explosive ceiling, Meadows must regain his 2019 success against lefties (.275/9/32 over 167 at-bats). Also, the impact of Wander Franco in the Rays’ starting lineup should help his runs or RBI, depending on where he hits in the batting order.
2022 comeback player: Yankees SP Luis Severino
From 2019 to 2021, Severino only pitched 18 innings (1.00 ERA and 25 strikeouts) due to right shoulder issues and TJ surgery in 2020. His arm was elite over 63 starts in 2017 and 2018, when he went 33-14 with a 3.18 ERA and 450 strikeouts over 384.2 innings. Severino is in a contract year, meaning the Yankees will give all he can handle in their quest to make the postseason. In his limited action in 2021, his fastball came in at 96.0 MPH while offering a plus slider and changeup. The winter reports have been positive, but Severino still falls into the risk/reward column until he proves his injury woes are behind him. His ADP (167) in the NFBC prices him in a go big or go home area in early March. Possible 15+ wins with a sub 3.00 ERA and more than 200 strikeouts.
