Ted Williams famously said hitting is the toughest thing to do in sports. One of the first recorded accounts of the Williams Postulate dates to 1966, when Williams added, “And hitting the curve is the toughest element of hitting.” Teddy Ballgame made his observation while explaining why many kids stop playing baseball.
Hitting has only grown more difficult. Since the mound was lowered to its current height in 1969, the five lowest rates of hits per game are ’72, 2020, ’21, ’22 and ’23. This four-year stretch is to modern hitting what the Sahara is to deserts.
Hitting is harder because pitching—lots and lots of it—is so much better. Already this season, teams have used 655 pitchers, more than any full season in baseball history up to 2006. More than half of those pitchers (335) have touched at least 96 mph with their fastballs. And despite that ferocious velocity, fastballs are at an all-time low (47%). Why? We go back to Williams’s observation about the career killer: the curveball. Spin is in.
