Housing affordability is the worst it’s been in decades, but slowing inflation may reduce some of the pain for hopeful homebuyers.
U.S. inflation came in at 3.2% last month, showing that the Fed’s interest rate hikes over the past 20 months are starting to cool consumer prices. The overall inflation rate dropped to 3.2% between September and October, meaning that increases in the cost of living have been smaller recently, which could eventually make it easier for some people to afford homes and mortgages, Mark Buskuhl, founder and CEO of Ninebird Properties, a Texas-based investment firm, tells Fortune.
“Lower inflation rates may also lead to lower interest rates from central banks, making it more affordable for individuals to take out loans for purchasing homes,” says Buskuhl, who has worked in the real estate industry for more than two decades.
During the past month, mortgage rates have already started to ease, at least a little bit. In mid-October, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 8%—a two-decade high. Since then, rates have cooled some, and as of Wednesday sit at 7.45%, according to Mortgage News Daily.
And “lower inflation will also help housing affordability, as potential homebuyers will be spending less on all the goods and services they buy,” Gregory Heym, chief economist at New York City-based luxury real estate company Brown Harris Stevens, tells Fortune.
Flattening inflation can help housing affordability—But it may take a while
While any drop in mortgage rates is a positive improvement for buyers, rates are still not nearly as affordable as they were during the pandemic. Just a couple of years ago, buyers could get sub-3% mortgage rates, but housing market experts and economists don’t expect to see rates that low anytime soon.
“Many buyers are on the sidelines waiting for rates to come down,” Jeremy Schachter, a 23-year mortgage industry veteran and branch manager of Fairway Independent Mortgage Corp., tells Fortune. “They won't come down to record lows like we had in years prior, but they will come down from all-time highs recently.”
Instead, flattening inflation and lower mortgage rates could take a while to have a significant impact on housing affordability.
“Generally, it may take several months or even a couple of years for significant changes to be seen,” Buskuhl says. “This is because the housing market operates on a supply and demand basis, which takes time to adjust. As inflation rates decrease, it may take some time for prices to stabilize and for demand to increase as individuals feel more confident in their purchasing power.”
Plus, mortgage rates aren’t the only factor impacting housing affordability in the U.S. Namely, existing home prices have risen over the past seven months by nearly 7% to $311,500, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, a leading measure of home values for over 30 years. The late fall and winter months, however, are notorious for lower home prices and less competition for buyers.
“However, this is often the time of year when inventory is lowest, so buyers will need to adjust their expectations and search criteria despite lower inflation rates,” Kurt Carlton, president and co-founder of New Western, a private residential investment properties marketplace, tells Fortune.
Low housing inventory levels are another major factor blocking homebuyers from affordable deals, housing market experts and economists say. The U.S. housing market is experiencing the worst downturn in home sales since 2010, when the economy was struggling to pull out of the Great Financial Crisis. Indeed, existing-home sales dropped a stunning 15% in September on a year-over-year basis to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million transactions, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
The limited inventory of existing homes will continue to “exacerbate the affordability challenges in the housing market, thereby further impacting the price of homes,” Carlton says. “This situation is likely to persist until the broader economy grapples with substantial economic hurdles.”
However, even the tiniest cracks in the housing market could make it just affordable enough for some buyers.
“As inflation cools, rates will come down and more buyers will come into the market,” Schachter says. “Inventory levels are also very low because many sellers—even though they want to sell—are holding onto their homes due to the ultra-low rates they got. As rates start to decline more sellers will list their homes which will help with inventory levels.”
Heym also expects to see more home deals close in the coming weeks as a result of lower inflation and mortgage rates.
“I would expect to see a noticeable increase in signed contracts to buy homes in the next few weeks,” he says. But, “the big question is how long will that last if inventory remains very low.”
