The Green Bay Packers’ slim hopes of making a run at the NFC North title all but died during a 34-31 loss to the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on Thursday night.
The Packers are now 9-4 and have three division losses, including two losses to the Lions. To make up the deficit, the Packers would need to win out, have the Lions lose four straight games and the Minnesota Vikings to lose to the Chicago Bears.
How impossible does that sound? The New York Times playoff simulator gives odds of less than one percent.
But even with the loss, the simulator gives the Packers a 99 percent chance of making the postseason.
So, the wildcard it is for Matt LaFleur and the Packers.
If the season ended today, the Packers would be the No. 6 seed and would play the NFC West-leading Seattle Seahawks on the road in the first round. The Packers go to Seattle to play the Seahawks next Sunday, providing a potential playoff preview.
LaFleur’s team finishes the season with games against the Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, Vikings and Chicago Bears. Even if the Packers finish 1-3 or 2-2 over the final four, a playoff berth is all but guaranteed.
If the Packers can hold onto the No. 5 or No. 6 seed, they would play a road game against the NFC West or NFC South winner to start the postseason. While every team wants a home playoff game, playing a team like the Seahawks, Cardinals, Falcons or Buccaneers on the road is not a terrible situation considering the strength of those two divisions this season.
LaFleur said the Packers must now “earn the right” to come back to Ford Field to play the Lions, who are 12-1 and cruising toward the No. 1 seed in the NFC. If the Lions clinch the top seed, they would get a first-round bye and a home game in the divisional round, so it’s possible a win in the wildcard round by the Packers would set up a rematch at Ford Field.
