It seems too early to read this yet, with a major Fed catalyst due out this afternoon, but as of Tuesday, Sept. 15, roughly over half of the Russell 3000 Index – some 1,613 components! – have a “sell” signal from Barchart’s TrendSeeker® indicator.
The broad-based Russell 3000 seeks to measure roughly 3,000 of the largest publicly traded U.S. companies, and it represents about $80 trillion in market cap as of the June 2026 annual rebalancing. That’s 98% of the publicly traded market, give or take.
Without analyzing all 1,600 signals individually, a TrendSeeker “sell” suggests, on the surface, that a significant portion of the market is experiencing bearish momentum.
Yet at the same time, both the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) and the Nasdaq-100 Index ($IUXX) are 5% or less from their respective all-time highs (ATHs)...
…despite less than 10% of the S&P 500 sporting a 100% Barchart technical “buy” Opinion.
Until macro pressures ease and the Fed provides greater clarity on the path of monetary policy, the narrow market breadth leaves investors walking a tightrope between capitulation and opportunity.
The question is whether this lopsided market ultimately represents an exhausted rally that gives way to a meaningful correction or whether it is the early stage of a much broader opportunity, provided participation begins to expand beyond the relatively small group of stocks currently carrying the major indexes.
Simply put, this is either the top, as in capital-T Top, or one of the greatest buying opportunities of the century.
– John Rowland, CMT, is Barchart’s Senior Market Strategist and host of Market on Close.
On the date of publication, Barchart Insights did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
