On July 18, Pawan Kalyan, the president of the Jana Sena Party (JSP), was called to attend the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) meeting in New Delhi. After the meeting, the actor-turned politician met Prime Minister Narendra Modi alone. Later, he also met Home Minister Amit Shah and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) national president J.P. Nadda. His presence at these meetings reaffirmed the JSP’s alliance with the BJP and its presence in the NDA. It may also push the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) to rethink its political strategy in Andhra Pradesh.
Mr. Kalyan took the opportunity in New Delhi to criticise the ruling YSRCP and also speak to the national media. He suggested that the BJP open its arms to all those parties which intend to upset the YSRCP government. He has repeatedly dropped hints that the 2014 winning combination of the BJP, the JSP, and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) should be back in force to ensure that Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy is no longer in power.
Mr. Kalyan founded the JSP in 2014. He did not contest the 2014 general and Assembly elections, but provided outside support to the BJP-TDP alliance. The combination won, and Chandrababu Naidu of the TDP was back as Chief Minister for the third time. However, in 2018, the JSP grew disillusioned with the TDP and the NDA over issues of farm distress and the non-grant of ‘special category status’ for the State, promised during the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh in 2014, and left the alliance. In 2019, the JSP fought the Assembly elections along with the Left parties and the Bahujan Samaj Party, but it performed miserably. Despite contesting all the 175 Assembly seats, it won only the Razole Assembly seat. The next year, it rejoined the NDA alliance. Since then, Mr. Kalyan has met Mr. Modi at least twice and Mr. Shah and Mr. Nadda several times.
Since his debacle in 2019, Mr. Kalyan’s popularity as a politician may have grown. The huge response to his Varahi Yatra, launched to “expose” all the “misdeeds and corruption” of the government, and the debt burden on the State, is an indication. He intends to cover the entire State in the next few months.
The yatra by TDP leader Nara Lokesh has also been attracting crowds, including in Mr. Reddy’s stronghold, Kadapa. After Mr. Naidu stormed out of the alliance with the NDA, it seemed unlikely that the TDP and the BJP would patch up in the near future. But of late, Mr. Naidu, who has been called by Mr. Reddy an opportunist, has been warming up to both the BJP and the JSP. This has created speculation that the combination might work again.
While this sounds great on paper, there are also several challenges ahead. As Mr. Kalyan is from the Kapu community, the JSP is seen as a Kapu party. Kapus form close to 30% of the population in the State. So far, Andhra Pradesh has not fielded a Chief Minister from this community. Aware of this, Mr. Reddy has been encouraging Mudragada Padmanabham, another strong Kapu leader from the Godavari districts, a Kapu area, to re-enter politics. Recently, Mr. Padmanabham came out of his political hibernation, but did not announce his political affiliations.
However, if there is a demand for a Kapu Chief Minister, it may leave Mr. Naidu and the Kamma community unhappy. Despite forming less than 10% of the population, the Kammas are financially strong. In 2008, when Mr. Kalyan’s elder brother and popular matinee star K. Chiranjeevi launched the Praja Rajyam Party (PRP), the Kapus backed it fully. But the merger of the PRP with the Congress upset the community. It is important to note that politics in Andhra Pradesh has always been dominated by the Reddy and Kamma communities.
Second, despite Mr. Kalyan’s good relationship with the BJP leadership, there has been lack of synergy between the workers of the JSP and the BJP. This will need to be addressed.
The third challenge pertains to the face of the alliance. There could be issues on this front since both Mr. Naidu and Mr. Kalyan might push to be the face of the alliance. The BJP too may have its own preferences. Mr. Kalyan has categorically stated that the chief ministerial face will be decided post-elections. This, though, may prove to be a bad strategy in the run-up to the elections since Mr. Reddy’s welfare schemes are popular across the State.
Finally, though Mr. Kalyan has a large following among the youth, his party lacks strong leaders. If he relies only on his image, this could backfire, as was the case in 2019.
