London’s councils are preparing to mothball schools to avoid a boom and bust cycle of closures, as the falling birthrate, high housing costs and the aftermath of Brexit and the Covid pandemic drive down the number of children living in the capital.
With some areas of London projected to see the number of primary school-aged children fall by 10% or more by 2028, councils say they are struggling to support schools to stay open as pupil funding dries up.
Instead, the empty schools could be used to host childcare centres or special needs facilities.
London Councils, which represents the city’s boroughs, said that a wave of school closures could cause a permanent “loss of educational assets for future generations”, with closures leading to sell-offs that could not be quickly reversed when the population recovers.
“London’s birth rate has historically ebbed and flowed, and London is likely to become a more popular place to raise a family at some point in the future, leading to renewed demand for school places,” the group said in a report.
“To avoid the Department for Education from having to purchase land and build new schools in the future, it is vital that we are able to keep current educational assets in use for educational purposes, such as nurseries, family hubs [or] special schools, which creates more flexibility going forward.”
Last month, the boroughs of Hackney and Lambeth announced substantial cuts and closures, with Lambeth losing more than 4,000 primary school places. But the shrinking numbers will soon affect secondary schools, with London Councils forecasting that the numbers entering year 7 will drop by 4%, including a 6% fall in inner London boroughs.
Ian Edwards, London Councils’ executive member for children and young people, said significant reductions in the number of pupils starting primary and secondary education had major implications for the future of the city’s schools.
“Unfortunately, some of our schools and local authorities are negotiating a complex balancing act. The drop in demand for places means schools face extremely difficult decisions over how to balance their budgets,” Edwards said.
“London has some of the best schools in the country, with over 90% of all our schools being rated good or outstanding by Ofsted. We are working diligently to ensure that this level of high-quality education is accessible for all children entering schools in the coming years and allow our schools to thrive despite this difficult climate.”
The Department for Education does have a “falling rolls fund” but it will only support schools experiencing a short-term drop in enrolment if they are likely to recover within four years. London Councils said the DfE should make the fund more flexible “in recognition of the need to protect vital education assets” in the capital, as well maintaining choices for parents.
The councils said they were frustrated by their inability to influence the number of pupils enrolled in academies, which are managed by autonomous trusts that set their own admissions policies.
In some cases academies could refuse to trim their intakes, “even when other local good schools are struggling and might need to close if all local schools don’t work together”, the report stated.
The councils want the DfE to ensure that academies are part of local school place planning, to minimise disruption and closures.
