When Sadiq Khan published his last mayoral manifesto, his paramount concern was restoring Transport for London’s Covid-crippled finances. Now TfL is about to post a £162 million annual “operating surplus” and its executives are waiting eagerly to see if they have done enough to earn themselves bonuses (they will find out later this month, when TfL’s performance is measured against a series of “scorecard” targets).
It’s a far cry from the situation in 2021. Mr Khan entered that year’s mayoral elections — delayed a year by the pandemic — with TfL surviving day-to-day thanks to government bailouts that ended up totalling more than £6 billion.
But while the capital’s public transport body is no longer on life-support, it still has the capacity to cause the Mayor headaches. The problems on the Central line are likely to be repeated on other lines where TfL cannot afford to replace the trains, such as the Bakerloo, Northern and Jubilee.
And despite finding £30 million to avert New Year strikes, union walkouts remain a worry. Only last week was a strike, which would have caused chaos on the day the mayoral election winner is due to be declared, called off after a deal was struck with Aslef.
In transport terms, the focus of much of Mr Khan’s second term was on the Ulez. We will analyse that separately when we look at his environmental record. But how did he perform more generally on transport? Here we examine what Mr Khan promised — and what he delivered — in the area where the mayor’s decisions directly affect more people than any other.
The 2021 manifesto
It may seem a lifetime ago, but Sadiq Khan’s 2021 manifesto is most notable for its pictures: the Mayor in a face mask (appropriately enough, one bearing a Tube seat moquette).
The pandemic was drawing to an end but TfL was in dire straits. The Mayor had to get it — and London’s wider economy — back on its feet.
The manifesto committed Mr Khan to “continuing to invest in public transport to ensure it is safe, affordable and reliable, keeping fares as low as possible, working to put TfL on a sound, sustainable financial footing after the pandemic, and supporting a revolution in walking and cycling”.
He vowed to lobby for the “DLR extension to Thamesmead, the Bakerloo Line extension and Crossrail 2”. Three years on, all remain a pipe dream. Ditto for his hope of adding Great Northern rail services from Moorgate to TfL’s empire.
But he did rename the six parts of the London Overground to give each its own identity (at a cost of £6 million and much public discourse), while 4G and 5G connectivity is gradually being rolled out on the Tube and Elizabeth line. Slightly behind schedule, new trains are due later this year on the DLR, and from 2025 on the Piccadilly line. The Northern line was extended to Battersea Power Station in 2021 and the London Overground to Barking Riverside in 2022.
Hammersmith Bridge remains closed to vehicles, five years since it was first shut on safety grounds by the local council. Mr Khan called the situation “unacceptable” but has done little to get the bridge reopened, bar ditching a daft plan for a ferry.
Fares
Unlike his first term, there was no fares freeze, partial or otherwise. TfL needed every penny. This also saw more than a million older Londoners losing the right to free travel before 9am. Designed initially as a social distancing measure, the inability to use the 60+ Oyster or Freedom Pass in the morning rush hour remains in place — despite a manifesto pledge to “help to protect the Freedom Pass”.
But a new fares freeze began on March 3. This will leave single pay-as-you go bus and Tube fares unchanged until March 2025. The £123 million shortfall in TfL fares income will be plugged with “windfall” income from council tax and business rates.
Mr Khan’s election leaflets claim he is “freezing all TfL transport fares yet again”. But this has been described as an “outright lie” by Lib-Dem mayoral candidate Rob Blackie, as the “cap” on multiple journeys and the cost of Travelcards have both increased, by about five per cent. About 40 per cent of journeys will be more expensive. But Silviya Barrett, of the Campaign for Better Transport, was impressed with the Mayor’s decision not to copy the increase in national rail fares. “I think it’s a positive signal and a positive way to use public money,” she said.
Buses
Bus ridership has risen post-pandemic but remains below pre-pandemic levels, and has been in decline for years.
The reason for this long-term decline is something that Mr Khan has failed to resolve: namely, the delays suffered by bus passengers.
Bus speeds have fallen to a new low of 9.1mph, in part because of the amount of other traffic on the road.
The average bus journey took 32 minutes pre-pandemic but now takes more than 35 minutes. Protest marches in central London, bus driver shortages and strikes have also worsened delays.
Proposed cuts to central London bus routes were pared back but some routes have disappeared, such as the 48, or have been “restructured” (ie shortened), such as the 11.
9.1 mph
Average speed of a London bus, which has fallen to a new low
Average speed of a London bus, which has fallen to a new low
In general, bus services in outer London have been improved at the expense of those in central London, a move broadly welcomed by experts. Silviya Barrett said: “We do hope to see a gradual increase in bus use.”
Oli Lord, of the Clean Cities Campaign, fears buses are being shunned in favour of hire e-bikes and e-scooters in central London, especially by younger Londoners. More bus priority measures are needed to prevent passengers getting stuck in traffic, he said.
One high-profile arrival has been the Superloop, the outer London “express” bus network. TfL executives have even whispered the words “Superloop 2”, sending expectations soaring. Last week Mr Khan unveiled plans for a “Bakerloop” service that would follow the route of the proposed Bakerloo line extension, linking Elephant and Castle and Lewisham.
Nine Superloop routes have been delivered in less than a year, increasing local passenger numbers by three per cent once the loss of journeys on “parallel” services is factored in. TfL expects the Superloop to repay its investment within five years.
TfL’s bus supremo Tom Cunnington said: “There are some really positive signs that the work we have done does change attitudes. There are a lot more people using our services.”
TfL finances
When Mr Khan was first elected in 2016, he inherited an organisation in a “precarious position”, with a £1.5 billion-a year deficit. He described TfL as “inefficient and flabby” and vowed to squeeze out waste.
Now, despite being about to declare its first-ever “operating surplus”, it remains in need of government help — about £500 million a year — to fund major projects.
In addition, it is borrowing heavily. Debt levels are due to rise by about £250 million a year and will total more than £17 billion by 2026/27 — up £3 billion on pre-pandemic levels. But its passenger income for 2023/24 is expected to top £5 billion — more than ever achieved pre-pandemic, and at a time when weekday travel demand remains about 10 per cent below normal.
£5 billion
Expected TfL passenger income for 2023/24, more than it ever achieved before Covid
Expected TfL passenger income for 2023/24, more than it ever achieved before Covid
“Some of it is luck, quite frankly,” said Lib-Dem assembly member Caroline Pidgeon in relation to TfL’s growing income. “Because of the contracts the bus companies are on, they have having to pay penalties to TfL because their buses are stuck in traffic.”
But staff costs are considerable. TfL has 673 more workers than at the end of 2019/20 – a total headcount of 27,571, of which 2,088 are consultants or agency workers — more than 500 more than four years ago. TfL says this is “driven by labour market challenges”.
Passenger numbers
On November 23 last year, the Tube recorded its busiest day since the pandemic, with 4.05 million journeys. Midweek ridership on the Tube is now regularly just under four million. Bus ridership also continues to grow, with around five million journeys daily.
Passenger journeys are “relatively steady” at 90 per cent of pre-pandemic levels, up from 85 per cent at the end of 2022/23.
4.05 million
The number of passenger journeys on the Tube’s busiest day since the pandemic
The number of passenger journeys on the Tube’s busiest day since the pandemic
Mr Khan is trialling “off-peak” fares all day on Friday until May 31 on the Tube and rail services in and around Greater London. Expect other cities to follow if this reduces Friday “working from home”. Numbers for the first three Fridays are higher, when compared to the corresponding days last year — but TfL is currently unsure whether this is because of the cheaper fares rather than annual growth in Tube ridership.
Major projects
The Elizabeth line finally opened in May 2022, more than three years late and £4 billion over budget. But that has largely been forgotten: the “Lizzie line” is now the busiest rail line in the country and the fattest of cash cows for TfL.
Frustratingly for passengers, it has also become a victim of its own success, with Network Rail failures west of Paddington impacting upon tens of thousands of passengers at a stroke.
“You can’t underestimate what a big achievement it was to have delivered Crossrail, but it was down to a fantastic team led by [chief executive] Mark Wild,” said Caroline Pidgeon. “In terms of anything else big, Sadiq’s been finishing off projects that were started a long time ago, partly because of the financial climate and Covid, and because of how the Government has behaved.”
Indeed, investment in new Northern and Jubilee line trains has been shelved. The implications from the failure to secure a long-term capital funding deal from the Government are yet to become clear. “It’s still a tragedy that the Oxford Street pedestrianisation never came to fruition,” said Oli Lord.
The Tube
The Central line threatens to become Mr Khan’s new Crossrail crisis in miniature. Without the cash to buy a new fleet of trains, a £500 million refurbishment will take until 2029 to complete.
£500 million
Cost of refurbishment to Central line trains which will take until 2029
Cost of refurbishment to Central line trains which will take until 2029
At the same time, the sudden failure of dozens of train motors has left passengers facing delays of up to 20 minutes between trains, with the problem most acute at the line’s eastern end.
Expert opinion
“Mostly it has been positive progress in London on transport,” said Silviya Barrett, at the Campaign for Better Transport. “In many things he could have gone further but there has been a difficult funding environment.”
Jon Tabbush, at the Centre for London, said: “We want Sadiq to go further but, broadly speaking, transport is the area that Londoners are happiest with him. Transport is definitely his key legacy area. Shepherding the Elizabeth line through its last stages, when the funding package began to fall apart, and keeping TfL alive during the pandemic, was really quite impressive.”
