London could be hit by supermarket shortages this summer if the conflict in the Middle East continues, a secret government analysis has found.
Contingency plans have been drawn up for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” in which disruption in the Strait of Hormuz leads to shortages of carbon dioxide, a resource vital to food production.
The Times reported that during the exercise, codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”, senior officials from the departments for health, defence, business, the environment, energy, housing and communities, as well as the Treasury, No 10 and the Food Standards Agency, rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry.
It has been suggested that chicken and pork are among the items which could be in short supply.
The model, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, assumed that in June 2026 the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.
It found that farming and hospitality would likely be impacted earliest and hardest, as CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food.
It is also used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens, while breweries would also be affected because the gas is fizzy drinks production.
While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.
According to the report, officials expect that while there won’t be critical food supply shortages, the variety of products available in stores could be affected.
Ministers are expected to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear needs if supplies run short, because carbon dioxide and dry ice are also used in storing blood, organs and vaccines, as well as a risk to Britain’s national electricity supply.
The Times reported that, in the reasonable worst-case scenario, supplies of CO2 could fall to just 18 per cent of present levels.
This would occur should a key UK plant suffer a mechanical problem and high gas prices lead to a drop in production of ammonia and fertiliser across Europe.
Emergency measures were drawn up, in which factories were asked to increase carbon dioxide production by stopping other manufacturing, with emergency legislation discussed to compel them to cooperate. Compensation for such suppliers was also discussed, with officials estimating that the move would cost tens of millions of pounds.
In March, ministers announced that the Ensus plant in Teesside would be restarted for three months to help maintain supplies.
Government insiders have stressed that the reasonable worst-case scenario was not a prediction, but a part of normal Whitehall planning.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer sought to assuage concerns about the cost of living on Wednesday, telling MPs that fuel duty would remain frozen until September and that energy bills had been reduced by 6.6 per cent under the most recent price cap.
Starmer said in the House of Commons: “The most important thing we can do is to de-escalate the conflict and get the Strait of Hormuz open.”
Starmer will co-host a meeting on Friday of more than 40 nations who are working to unblock the waterway, which has been blocked by Iran and blockaded by the United States Navy.
Recent peace deal talks fell through, and the two week ceasefire between the US and Iran is due to expire on April 22. The White House has said that plans to resume peace negotiations were “productive and ongoing”.
A government spokesperson said: “We took decisive action last month to shore up the UK’s critical supplies of CO2 by temporarily restarting the Ensus bioethanol plant in Teesside and are continuing to work closely with business groups to tackle the impacts of events in the Middle East.
“Reasonable worst case scenarios are a planning tool used by experts and are not a prediction of future events.”
