As someone who is perceived as an ‘outsider’ to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the odds seemed heavily stacked against the incumbent MP, Navneet Kaur Rana, in Maharashtra’s communally hypersensitive Amravati. In a rare instance, her BJP candidacy was announced before her formal induction into the party, sparking strong resentment among local BJP leaders, leaders of Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and independent MLA Bacchu Kadu.
Even many of her long-time supporters feel disillusioned or betrayed by her choice, potentially leading to a loss of crucial grassroots support who backed her as an independent in the 2019 election.
“There is evident discontent with the BJP’s local cadre, who are uncomfortable with an outsider being parachuted without the typical grassroot integration. All these years, those who worked against her in the constituency are now being forced to support her,” a senior BJP leader told The Hindu.
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As part of the seat-sharing arrangement, Amravati was always given to the undivided Shiv Sena. So this is the first time, since its formation, that the BJP has fielded a candidate, the actor-turned-politician, who the party feels could make a potential breakthrough in the area.
The constituency, once represented by India’s first female president, Pratibha Patil, now faces a triangular contest with the Congress and Prahar Janshakti Party, led by Mr. Kadu of the ruling dispensation, both presenting their candidates, sitting MLA Balwant Wankhede and Dinesh Bub, respectively.
Despite being aware of the potential resentment within the ranks, the BJP would not “bet on the wrong horse” unless they believed in her potential, journalist and political analyst Sanjay Pakhode says.
“However, Ms. Rana’s incumbency advantage and newfound alliance with the BJP could significantly bolster her electoral prospects. As a sitting MP, she has already established a recognisable presence in the constituency, and has a strong team of workers who take care of every need to the voters,” he said.
The 38-year-old is locked in a titanic fight with Mr. Kadu, a local strongman, who calls her candidature a “downfall of democracy”. “She has to be defeated. Her husband [three-time independent MLA Ravi Rana] had ransacked the local BJP office in the past. He had even ridiculed the district guardian minister of Amravati. What can be more unfortunate for the party supporters than to campaign for her?” he said, alleging that Ms. Rana practises authoritarianism in the constituency.
As the political atmosphere heats up, the electorate’s opinions are fluctuating. The election results will be influenced by two key factors. First, it remains to be seen whether the BJP’s core base of OBC voters, who make up 35% of the constituency, will stand behind Ms. Rana or opt for one of the other two candidates.
Second, in this SC reserved constituency, the decision of the 28% of voters who are Dalits and Scheduled Tribals will be crucial. Moreover, the support of the majority of Muslim voters, who backed Ms. Rana in the previous election, will be essential to determine if they will continue their support due to her newfound alliance with the BJP. Out of Amravati’s 18 lakh voters, almost two lakh are from the Muslim community and over 50,000 voters fall under the general category.
At the Muslim-dominated Jawahar Gate area in the town, first-time voters and engineering students Satvik Choudhary and his friends are having the famous ‘gilawada’ and ‘kachori’ are having a lively discussion on the election and the prospects of Mr. Wankhede and Ms. Rana. Playing an old speech by Ms. Rana in which she was seen criticising Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the youngsters talk about the lack of job opportunities and express the need for a change.
“We are very excited to cast our first vote. Though we were not eligible to vote in 2019, we clearly remember our current MP won the elections with the support of NCP and Congress, and those who were against the BJP,” 21-year-old Vedant Ramekar said. The group also expressed doubts about the possible tampering of EVMs. “The BJP is asking for votes in the name of Dharma, and so-called development which is not visible. The saffron party definitely lacks presence here, but even if we vote for the Congress candidate or Mr. Bub, it might go to the BJP, as there are chances of EVMs tampering,” said Ayuesh Thakre, who took a pause to eat his gilawada.
A distance away at Chandini Chowk, Imran Khan, an engineer, who was meeting and greeting friends on Eid-ul-fitr, is reticent about his political choices but points out the lack of public contact of Mr. Bub. “There’s time for the election day. We have a good relationship with the Rana family and know her work. But, she contesting from BJP ticket is a completely different factor,” local businessman Razza Pathan says.
When asked about the impact of the 2021 communal riots in the town, which hit the national headlines, in the upcoming election, both Mr. Khan and Mr. Pathan said it wouldn’t have any impact as it was a politically planned riot. “Tali ek haath se nahi bajti [Conflict requires two sources]. It happened only because of a few “jaahil log (benighted people)“ and there is no communal environment unlike other States which are in news the every other day,” they said.
But, one Ifran Shaik from Pathanpura strongly objects to Ms. Rana’s move to contest on the BJP ticket. “She’s sure that Muslims won’t vote for her this time, as a result, she is not even campaigning in our areas. The MP is banking on the core BJP and Shiv Sena votes, which went to Anandrao Adsul last time. Her game is very clear,” he said, expressing disappointment.
Amravati-based political observer Pradeep Deshpande suggests that the upcoming three-way battle in this politically charged constituency may not pave a smooth path to victory for Ms. Rana. “Certainly, she is a crowd-puller and a skilled orator, but ultimately, it’s traditionally a Congress stronghold, and the Dalit and Muslim communities play a decisive role,” he said.
He opines that the contest could primarily boil down to a face-off between the Congress and the BJP, as Mr. Bub, the third candidate, lacks significant popularity in the area. “However, voters, particularly those affiliated with the Shiv Sena, might also consider supporting Mr. Bub, given Mr. Kaud’s alliance with the MahaYuti coalition,” he added. “There seems to be a desire among the electorate to defeat Ms. Rana, but not necessarily to elect her. The division of votes is evident, and the BJP’s local leadership appears inactive,” Mr. Deshpande observed.
He further noted that Muslims are unlikely to sway towards the BJP, while Shiv Sena supporters are unlikely to endorse the Congress. “This complex web of alliances and loyalties sets the stage for a closely contested electoral battle in which every vote will count,” he added.
