Each fantasy baseball season, the goal is to find the best impact arms late in drafts to complement your starting rotation foundation. These types of breakthrough pitchers come from the minors most of the time. A veteran arm with a successful resume will be discounted in drafts in some years due to a disappointing year (Justin Verlander in 2008), most likely tied to an injury.
Before each draft season, the pitching pool looks enticing at the front end, almost forcing fantasy managers to roster at least one foundation ace. Unfortunately, by the end of each year, it seems like one-third of the secure arms fail to live up to expectations.
Aces playing like deuces
Of the top 20 starting pitchers drafted in 2021, 14 arms underperformed expectations, or an injury led to a disappointing season.
Here are those underperformers: Jacob deGrom, NYM; Shane Bieber, CLE; Trevor Bauer, LAD; Yu Darvish, SD; Aaron Nola, PHI; Luis Castillo, CIN; Jack Flaherty, STL; Clayton Kershaw, LAD; Zac Gallen, ARI; Blake Snell, SD; Tyler Glasnow, TB; Kenta Maeda, MIN; Stephen Strasburg, WAS; and Zach Plesac, CLE.
After seeing this list of pitchers, a fantasy drafter might get the idea to fade the front pitching inventory. However, the downside is that these issues linger throughout the pitching pool. Each year the drafting options change, creating new buying windows.
Also, there has been much talk about the drop in innings pitched by the top starters in the game. However, reviewing the high number of injuries by the best pitchers in 2021 shows why fewer pitchers reached the 180-inning mark.
Fantasy baseball rankings: Hitters | Pitchers
Last year the average pitching staff in the majors pitched 1,420 innings. Most teams in the majors carry five starters, a swingman, and five to six relievers. Even with seven bullpen arms pitching 65 innings each (455 innings), that leaves 965 innings to be pitched by their other pitchers. More teams will use an opener than in the past, but franchises still need their front four starters to average close to six innings per game (162 X 6 = 972 innings).
When searching for my breakout pitcher, I’m looking for a high ceiling while also offering the ability to create an edge in ERA and WHIP.
Potential breakout pitchers
Alek Manoah, TOR: After an excellent start to his major league career in his rookie season (3.22 ERA, 1.048 WHIP, and 127 strikeouts over 111.2 innings), Manoah looks poised to put his name into the conversation with the best arms in the game. With an improvement in his command and a push over 180 innings, he will deliver a top 10 pitching season in the American League. Manoah has the look of a high-volume pitcher who is challenging to hit (.192) while owning strikeout ability. As a result, I consider him a cheat SP2 with Cy Young upside in fantasy leagues.
Shane Baz, TB: Baz will get plenty of respect in fantasy drafts, but I put him a notch below some of the young arms in the game due to questions about how many innings the Rays will pitch him in 2022. He owns an impact fastball and two elite-breaking pitches. Last year Baz finished with 92 innings between AA, AAA, and the majors while unlocking the keys to his command.
Tarik Skubal, DET: The ceiling of Skubal’s arm looks electric once he figures out how to minimize the damage in home runs allowed (35 over 149.1 innings in 2021). His walk rate (2.8) and strikeout rate (9.9) finished in an elite area last year, but he averaged only 4.96 innings per start. Not quite ready to be a top-tier arm, but the Skubal owns the foundation to be much improved in 2022.
Joe Ryan, MIN: Any bet on Ryan comes on his 26.2 innings of experience in the majors and his excellent combination of command and strikeout ability. Last year he only threw 92.2 innings between the minors and the majors while showing dominating stats in college (2.41 ERA and 0.958 WHIP) and High A (1.42 ERA and 0.714 WHIP over 82.2 innings). Ryan pitched 123.2 innings in 2019, giving him a chance to make 30 starts for the Twins. His only risk comes from pitching up in the strike zone (possible rise in home runs allowed).
Casey Mize, DET: The two negatives with Mize on his stat sheet heading into 2022 are home runs allowed (24 over 150.1 innings) and a low strikeout rate (7.1). However, his drawing cards should be growth, 30 starts in 2021, and a higher ceiling in command in college (1.4 per nine) and the minors (1.9 per nine). Mize has the tools to be a foundation ace with one swing and miss pitch. Buy his floor while understanding his potential and favorable price point.
Josiah Gray, WAS: In his first experience in the majors, Gray battled home runs (15 over 62.2 innings) and his command (4.0 walks per nine). He showed that his arm could get batters out with regularity in between his down days. His college and minor league resume have bright shades of green, highlighted by his command and floor in strikeouts. However, Gray does have a minor drawback due to only pitching 70.2 innings last season.
2022 breakout pitcher: Mariners SP Logan Gilbert
My breakout pitcher of the year is Logan Gilbert of the Mariners. He made 24 starts for Seattle in his rookie season while posting a questionable ERA (4.68) over 119.1 innings. However, his WHIP (1.173) suggested his ERA should be closer to 3.50 if he didn’t allow a few too many home runs (1.3 per nine).
Gilbert finished with a plus strikeout rate (9.7) and elite command (2.1 walks per nine). He offers a high 90s fastball and an electric slider while developing his changeup.
Over his three seasons in college, Gilbert went 23-3 with a 2.48 ERA and 313 strikeouts over 250.2 innings. The Mariners gave him only one start at AAA (one run over five innings with five strikeouts) before giving him a major league ride. He went 11-5 in the minors over 140 innings with a 2.12 ERA and 170 strikeouts.
Gilbert pitched 112.1 innings in 2018, 135 in 2019, and 124.1 last season. His next step should be an entire season of starts in Seattle with a push toward 180 innings.
A little birdie told me that he expected Gilbert to finish in the top three in Cy Young voting this year after I researched and told him who I would write about as my breakout pitcher.
