EDITORS/NEWS DIRECTORS:
Support for abortion rights drove women to the polls in midterm elections, helping Democrats to deny Republicans the sweeping victory they had expected nationwide.
For many women across America, the issue of reproductive freedom took on higher meaning and became part of an overarching concern about the future of democracy.
Overall, about a quarter of voters said the U.S. Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade was a top factor in their vote, according to AP VoteCast, a nationwide survey of more than 94,000 voters in the midterm elections. Women, Democrats and abortion-rights supporters were especially likely to say that.
In a story published Friday, AP reporters talked to women across the country who linked their concerns about abortion to fears for the country’s future.
Here are some tips for localizing VoteCast data on the role abortion played in the midterm elections — including a link to select state-by-state VoteCast results.
SOME BACKGROUND
The results of Tuesday’s election sent a clear message that the issue of abortion rights has not faded for voters in the months since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
Republican candidates did gain ground in some states, potentially paving the way for more state bans on women’s abortion access. And it is still a possibility that Republicans could seize control of Congress. But in many states, the GOP lost contests that would have allowed the party to easily advance restrictions on access to abortion.
Abortion rights supporters won in five states where access was on the ballot, including in blue California and Vermont and the swing state of Michigan, where voters enshrined it in the state constitutions. In Montana and GOP stronghold Kentucky, voters rejected anti-abortion amendments.
Many Democratic candidates advocated for abortion rights on the campaign trail. But they also cast their Republican rivals’ “extreme” attitudes on abortion as one example of a broader threat to the country’s democratic institutions, including its election systems.
Abortion “may have made the difference in some key races where the elections were really competitive,” said Ashley Kirzinger, director of survey methodology at KFF, which designed questions for and published an analysis of VoteCast.
DATA FOR YOUR STATE
AP VoteCast, conducted for The Associated Press by NORC at the University of Chicago, offers results nationwide and in 48 states. The survey asked voters how the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade factored into their vote and followed up to learn whether it specifically had an impact on their decision whether to vote or on which candidates they supported.
The results for the three questions, nationwide and in each state, are published here, to help you to speak to the role Roe played in your state.
Analysis by KFF based on VoteCast results shows voters in states with some of the most competitive races were especially likely to say Roe had an impact on their decisions around voting in this election, including whether to turn out and which candidate to support.
Roughly 4 in 10 voters in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona said Roe had a major impact on whether they turned out. About half of voters in those states said it had a major impact on who they chose to support.
The KFF analysis goes on to show how Roe might have tipped the scales among GOP voters. For example, Republican voters in Pennsylvania who said Roe was the top consideration in their vote were more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, compared with those who didn’t see it as an important factor.
Roe also may have had an impact in states where abortion was on the ballot, with at least a third of voters in California, Michigan, Kentucky and Vermont saying the reversal had a major impact on their decision to turn out. Young women were especially likely to say so, according to the KFF analysis of VoteCast.
To speak with KFF experts who analyzed AP VoteCast about Roe’s impact on the elections, contact Craig Palosky at CPalosky@kff.org.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
The issue of abortion is one people everywhere are bound to have opinions on, at local coffee shops, libraries, college campuses and the supermarket. But if you’re struggling to find women to speak with, there are women’s groups, nonprofits and political organizations that might be able to help.
For young voters, try calling local colleges or universities and get in touch with groups that encourage voter turnout or political involvement — like College Republicans and College Democrats, or campus groups that organize around support for or against abortion rights.
These national groups can also direct you to women living in your state. Ask to speak to someone in the media department or communications.
— NARAL Pro-Choice America Foundation at https://www.prochoiceamerica.org/foundation / or 202-973-3000
— Students for Life at https://studentsforlife.org/ or 540-834-4600
— Moms Rising at https://www.momsrising.org/ or 202-371-1996
— National Right to Life at https://www.nrlc.org/ or 202-626-8825
ABOUT VOTECAST
AP VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News and The Associated Press. The survey of 94,296 voters was conducted for nine days, concluding as polls closed. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The survey combines a random sample of registered voters drawn from state voter files; self-identified registered voters using NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population; and self-identified registered voters selected from nonprobability online panels. The margin of sampling error for voters is estimated to be plus or minus 0.5 percentage points. Find more details about AP VoteCast’s methodology at https://ap.org/votecast.
